# July 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 20, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863 "2020-07-20T19:31:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/1 "2020-07-20T19:31:47Z")
Consider the following senate races: Alabama Alaska Arizona (special) Colorado Georgia Georgia (special) Iowa Kansas Kentucky Maine Michigan Montana North Carolina The goal is for each race to assign a value, P(D), between 0 and 1 that represents the probability that a Democrat wins the seat, the value P(R ) = 1 - P(D), that represents that a Republican wins the seat is implied by P(D). Note: there are two senate races in Georgia this year. Be sure to mark which one is the special election. Entries will be submitted by posting in this thread. The most recent post by a user with a timestamp on or before July 31, 11:59:59 PM CT will be that user’s entry (i.e. you can change your entry until the end of June). After the election results are known, I will compute the [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) for each entry. Participants will be ranked by Brier score where lowest is best. Here’s my July prediction (PredictIt derived) which I will likely change (slightly) by the end of the month. | Race | P(D) | | --- | --- | | AK | 15.4% | | AL | 6.0% | | AZ\* | 92.9% | | CO | 96.5% | | GA | 32.5% | | GA\* | 32.5% | | IA | 52.4% | | KS | 15.5% | | KY | 8.6% | | ME | 81.4% | | MI | 93.2% | | MT | 63.4% | | NC | 72.6% | [May thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889) [June thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809) ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/2 "2020-07-22T15:01:23Z")
For NC I say 45% D could change in October ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2020, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/3 "2020-07-24T13:14:03Z")
still in second place!!! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/4 "2020-07-24T16:14:06Z")
About a week remains to enter. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/5 "2020-07-27T15:39:12Z")
Can I get any action? Accepting entries until 11:59:59 PM CT on Friday. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/6 "2020-07-28T15:32:51Z")
I think it will end up 50/50 even when Jones loses in AL. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/7 "2020-07-29T12:20:36Z")
Here’s mine: AK 19% AL 5% AZ\* 92% CO 89% GA 42% GA\* 25% IA 50% KS 15% KY 11% ME 82% MI 95% MT 56% NC 70% ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863/8 "2020-08-01T02:35:23Z")
Clock ticking. Less than four hours.