# June 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 22, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809 "2020-06-22T16:40:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/1 "2020-06-22T16:40:59Z")
Consider the following senate races: Alabama Alaska Arizona (special) Colorado Georgia Georgia (special) Iowa Kansas Kentucky Maine Michigan Montana North Carolina The goal is for each race to assign a value, P(D), between 0 and 1 that represents the probability that a Democrat wins the seat, the value P(R) = 1 - P(D), that represents that a Republican wins the seat is implied by P(D). Note: the Alaska race is between an incumbent Republican (Sullivan) and a Democratic Party backed independent (Al Gross). For the purposes of this contest I’m considering Gross a Democrat, which I’m sure would bother him to no end. Also note: there are two senate races in Georgia this year. Be sure to mark which one is the special election. Entries will be submitted by posting in this thread. The most recent post by a user with a timestamp on or before June 30, 11:59:59 PM CT will be that user’s entry (i.e. you can change your entry until the end of June). After the election results are known, I will compute the [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) for each entry. Participants will be ranked by Brier score where lowest is best. Here’s my prediction market derived sample entry that will almost certainly update by the end of the month. AK 16.2% AL 5.5% AZ\* 94.5% CO 96.2% GA 34.7% GA\* 35.1% IA 47.0% KS 17.9% KY 9.7% ME 75.1% MI 92.3% MT 51.5% NC 62.7% See [last month’s thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889) for additional information. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/2 "2020-06-22T16:47:59Z")
I only know about NC . I would predict 40% ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/3 "2020-06-22T16:58:37Z")
Here’s mine: AK 18% AL 4% AZ\* 91% CO 85% GA 43% GA\* 27% IA 50% KS 13% KY 10% ME 88% MI 93% MT 59% NC 72% ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/4 "2020-06-22T17:40:59Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > I only know about NC . I would predict 40% Your failure to properly enter is noted. You have until the end of June 30th to rectify that. Alternatively, feel free to enjoy last place. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/5 "2020-06-22T18:55:23Z")
Is there a prize for last place? I hope so. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2020, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/6 "2020-06-23T23:31:04Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Alabama 1% > Alaska 5% > Arizona (special) 95% > Colorado 98% > Georgia 25% > Georgia (special) 40% > Iowa 40% > Kansas 25% > Kentucky 20% > Maine 95% > Michigan 95% > Montana 80% > North Carolina 35% Not great confidence in these, but my best shot. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2020, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/7 "2020-06-24T15:05:40Z")
One week remains to get those entries in. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/8 "2020-06-27T22:27:58Z")
Reminder: the deadline to submit or update an entry in Tuesday 11:59:59 PM CT. Here’s an update to mine. Iowa is ever so slightly leaning blue now in my prediction market based model. | Race | P(D) | | --- | --- | | AK | 15.2% | | AL | 7.4% | | AZ\* | 94.3% | | CO | 96.6% | | GA | 34.0% | | GA\* | 35.4% | | IA | 52.0% | | KS | 18.3% | | KY | 8.7% | | ME | 76.0% | | MI | 93.7% | | MT | 57.8% | | NC | 64.6% | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809/9 "2020-06-30T16:45:37Z")
There’s about 12 hours left to submit/update entries. My latest update… | Race | P(D) | | --- | --- | | AK | 18.4% | | AL | 8.2% | | AZ\* | 93.8% | | CO | 95.5% | | GA | 34.5% | | GA\* | 33.2% | | IA | 51.2% | | KS | 18.2% | | KY | 8.7% | | ME | 76.8% | | MI | 92.7% | | MT | 60.4% | | NC | 65.0% |