# June 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 22, 2020, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840 "2020-06-22T17:11:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/1 "2020-06-22T17:11:16Z")
Consider these 15 swing states/districts: Arizona Florida Georgia Iowa Maine Maine CD-02 Michigan Minnesota Nebraska CD-02 New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Wisconsin For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst. My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this… ``` State Party Confidence Arizona D 5 Florida D 3 Georgia R 2 Iowa R 6 Maine D 15 Maine CD-02 R 8 Michigan D 12 Minnesota D 14 Nebraska CD-02 D 7 New Hampshire D 13 North Carolina D 1 Ohio R 4 Pennsylvania D 10 Texas R 11 Wisconsin D 9 ``` Entries will be accepted until June 30, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry. Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition. See [May thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693) for additional information. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/2 "2020-06-22T17:27:28Z")
Here you go: (and, hey, Discourse — my body was perfectly clear even without this here sentence!! Well, maybe I could scrub my armpits a bit more…) AZ D 2 FL D 3 GA R 13 IA R 11 ME D 15 ME-02 R 5 MI D 6 MN D 9 NE-02 D 4 NH D 12 NC R 8 OH R 10 PA D 7 TX R 14 WI D 1 ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.winston_oboogie/32/2945_2.png) [@Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Winston_OBoogie)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/3 "2020-06-22T17:28:11Z")
If I may ask a silly question,… What’s with the “CD-02”, and why 2 MEs? (or should that question be “why only 1 NE?”) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/4 "2020-06-22T17:33:53Z")
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the state winner and one each to winner of each congressional district. ME is Maine statewide. ME-02 is Maine’s 2nd congressional district. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/5 "2020-06-22T18:24:02Z")
And in case it’s not obvious, there’s only one NE because statewide Nebraska isn’t a swing vote. It will be R. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.winston_oboogie/32/2945_2.png) [@Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Winston_OBoogie)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/6 "2020-06-22T18:27:02Z")
Arizona - D - 2 Florida - R - 1 Georgia - R - 13 Iowa - D - 8 Maine - D - 12 Maine CD-02 - D - 3 Michigan - D - 7 Minnesota - D - 14 Nebraska CD-02 - R - 4 New Hampshire - D - 15 North Carolina - D - 5 Ohio - R - 6 Pennsylvania - D - 11 Texas - R - 10 Wisconsin - D - 9 Not sure what this works out to in electoral college, but it’s a gut feeling. I’m probably exactly what you’re looking for in your study - (generally) politically aware, but not a true true political junkie. This is nothing more than a feeling, nothing scientific to go by. All I want is a return to sanity. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/7 "2020-06-22T18:50:38Z")
| Arizona | D | 6 | | --- | --- | --- | | Florida | D | 2 | | Georgia | R | 8 | | Iowa | R | 12 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 7 | | Michigan | D | 9 | | Minnesota | D | 11 | | Nebraska CD-02 | R | 3 | | New Hampshire | D | 10 | | North Carolina | D | 1 | | Ohio | R | 14 | | Pennsylvania | D | 4 | | Texas | R | 13 | | Wisconsin | D | 5 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/8 "2020-06-22T18:54:43Z")
Beautifully formatted. I think I see how you did that. I failed in my attempt in the OP. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/9 "2020-06-22T18:56:10Z")
😀 It was unintentional. I had it in a spreadsheet, and when I copy/pasted here it just worked out. I’ll probably never get so lucky again. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.winston_oboogie/32/2945_2.png) [@Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Winston_OBoogie)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/10 "2020-06-22T18:59:10Z")
Looks like it did some formatting for you. Cool. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/11 "2020-06-22T19:34:40Z")
Arizona D 9 Florida D 5 Georgia R 2 Iowa R 3 Maine D 8 Maine CD-02 D 7 Michigan D 14 Minnesota D 15 Nebraska CD-02 R 6 New Hampshire D 10 North Carolina D 4 Ohio D 1 Pennsylvania D12 Texas R 13 Wisconsin D11 ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/12 "2020-06-22T20:31:41Z")
``` Arizona R 2 Florida R 4 Georgia R 3 Iowa R 7 Maine D 11 Maine CD-02 D 8 Michigan D 13 Minnesota D 6 Nebraska CD-02 D 1 New Hampshire D 14 North Carolina D 5 Ohio R 10 Pennsylvania D 12 Texas R 9 Wisconsin D 15 ``` ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/13 "2020-06-22T20:40:23Z")
Wisconsin D 15? Interesting. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/14 "2020-06-22T21:22:25Z")
Munch, speaking as a frazzled Wisconsin resident, if you know something I don’t … please tell me now, to save me about 20 sleepless nights this October! ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2020, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/15 "2020-06-22T22:39:16Z")
Arizona: D 5 Florida: R 3 Georgia: R 14 Iowa: R 8 Maine: D 12 Maine CD-02: D 6 Michigan: D 7 Minnesota: D 13 Nebraska CD-02: R 10 New Hampshire: D 1 North Carolina: R 9 Ohio: R 2 Pennsylvania: D 4 Texas: R 15 Wisconsin: D 6 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2020, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/16 "2020-06-23T15:54:43Z")
Arizona: D 2 Florida: R 12 Georgia: R 13 Iowa: R 6 Maine: D 11 Maine CD-02: D 7 Michigan: D 9 Minnesota: D 14 Nebraska CD-02: R 8 New Hampshire: D 10 North Carolina: D 1 Ohio: R 4 Pennsylvania: D 5 Texas: R 15 Wisconsin: D 3 ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2020, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/17 "2020-06-24T01:58:22Z")
SO good to see all those “Wisconsin Going Democrat” guesses! But, like **JKelly** , I’ll still have some sleepless nights, too. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2020, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/18 "2020-06-24T12:50:45Z")
FWIW, Amy Walter and Nate Silver both say things are looking bleak for POTUS in the Electoral College: [US election 2020: The electoral map just keeps getting worse for Trump | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/politics/trump-2020-electoral-map/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/19 "2020-06-24T15:06:21Z")
One week remains to get those entries in. You can do it! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840/20 "2020-06-27T22:46:45Z")
Reminder: the deadline for to submit or update entries is Tuesday 11:59:59 PM CT. Here’s my updated entry. | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 7 | | Florida | D | 5 | | Georgia | R | 1 | | Iowa | R | 4 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 6 | | Michigan | D | 12 | | Minnesota | D | 14 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 9 | | New Hampshire | D | 13 | | North Carolina | D | 3 | | Ohio | R | 2 | | Pennsylvania | D | 11 | | Texas | R | 8 | | Wisconsin | D | 10 | [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840.md?page=2)