# June 30th dealine about to bite President Bush in the ass? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 8, 2004, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914 "2004-04-08T06:41:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Star\_Was](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Star\_Was](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Star_Was)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/1 "2004-04-08T06:41:00Z")
I was at the gym today and I got into a conversation with 3 people about Iraq while we were watching CNN at the water fountain. Someone made the comment that they were glad we (the US) were leaving at the end of June. I had to explain to all three of them that we were not leaving at the end of June. I don’t think they believed me. One of them went so far as to say if Bush broke the June 30th deadline he was losing his vote. How many people are out there that believe the US will be gone from Iraq at the end of June? Is there polling on this? Are there enough uninformed people that are going to be pissed at the end of June to hurt the President? (I was hoping this people were just three brain dead idoits but I was talking to a friend of mine about this and she has run into others who believe the US is leaving at the end of June.) ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/2 "2004-04-08T07:30:45Z")
It’s pretty odd to confuse leaving entirely with handing over political authority. Do you think this is actually common? ---
**Author:** ![Star\_Was](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Star\_Was](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Star_Was)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/3 "2004-04-08T07:45:54Z")
> [@](#): > > Do you think this is actually common? I didn’t think anybody believed this until today, now I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/4 "2004-04-08T09:57:51Z")
Damn! I’d never even thought of anything like that. Come to think of it, I’d often wondered why the “handover of sovereignty” Bushwah was of any consequence, why anyone would give a chit. They’d made it abundantly clear that the first official act of the new! improved! Iraqi governance was to sign an entreaty to beg the US forces to remain. (and, perhaps, a few minor trade agreements…nothing to see here, move along, you looky-loos…). But it would be incredibly, unbelievable stupid to permit such a ill-informed public opinion to fester. Unless, of course, they’re just making it up as they go along and hoping for some miracle. But that would be just _too_ galacticly brain-dead. It would, wouldn’t it? I need a little reassurance here. They’re not that stupid, right? Right? ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/5 "2004-04-08T10:01:26Z")
Perhaps they are the same group who believe that Iraq was invaded because Saddam was helping Al Qaeda, and that the WMD have already been found? These people might even believe that the US _had_ pulled out on the 30th and that pictures of marines engaged in battle thereafter were simply leftist propaganda. Just tell them [“Don’t worry”.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/stevebell/0,7371,1187534,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/6 "2004-04-08T18:05:35Z")
I think **Star Was** has something here – if they follow form, the Bush Administration is going to trump up the June 30 pullout and present it to the public as a “We’re bringing the troops home from Iraq!” party. Lots of footage of happy returning soldiers, patriotic speeches, maybe Bush in front of a banner reading “Mission Accomplished.” Then as the months go by, the news comes out: two American soldiers killed in Iraq… three more American soldiers killed in Iraq … another American soldier killed in Iraq… an Apache helicopter shot down, seven American servicemen killed… it won’t be a surprise to the news-savvy folks out there, but even the folks who don’t follow the new religiously are _not_ going to brush this off. About the only way I can see the Administration trying to spin things is if the folks killed are “contractors” (mercenaries) – then they’ll present it as simply private security folks hired by Haliburton et al. But I don’t think that’s going to work, simply because the Administration _can’t_ pull every serviceperson out of Iraq and replace 'em with hired guns… ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/7 "2004-04-08T18:12:16Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > Then as the months go by, the news comes out You have faith that news will actually come out? If it does, they’ll probably describe the casualties as part of anti-terrorist task groups helping the sovereign Iraqi government defend itself. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/8 "2004-04-08T18:40:11Z")
I admit I was confused by it, too: it sounds as if the US is pulling out whenever it gets news coverage, but if you listen closely, you hear that handing over the country to Iraqis doesn’t equal not having a military occupation of the country. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Star\_Was](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Star\_Was](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Star_Was)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/9 "2004-04-08T19:06:26Z")
> [@](#): > > I think Star Was has something here – if they follow form, the Bush Administration is going to trump up the June 30 pullout and present it to the public as a “We’re bringing the troops home from Iraq!” party. Lots of footage of happy returning soldiers, patriotic speeches, maybe Bush in front of a banner reading “Mission Accomplished.” From what I understand there will be no troops returning home any time soon (other than rotational changes). ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/10 "2004-04-08T19:37:56Z")
The June 30 thing is a window-dressing farce. The USA will “transfer” power to a puppet government it has installed but it is all a sham. The USA will continue the ossupation, Iraqi military power remains in US hands and the USA retains ample political powers, including that of approving the Iraqi government. In other words: it is an empty gesture, nothing will change in fact. The USA does not trust its own puppets. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/11 "2004-04-08T19:44:14Z")
> [@Zagadka](#): > > You have faith that news will actually come out? The Republicans haven’t _completely_ taken over the media yet. 🙂 “Americans killed in Iraq” is guaranteed ratings gold, and none of the major outlets will ignore it. If nothing else, the foreign press will report it, and non-mainstream media sources (the internet, Air America Radio, the SDMB, etc.) will run with it. ---
**Author:** ![LouisB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@LouisB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LouisB)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2004, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/12 "2004-04-08T19:45:23Z")
> [@](#): > > Are there enough uninformed people that are going to be pissed at the end of June to hurt the President? I’d settle for this, if it would help get those bastards out of office. ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2004, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/13 "2004-04-09T07:11:04Z")
> [@sailor](#): > > The June 30 thing is a window-dressing farce. The USA will “transfer” power to a puppet government it has installed but it is all a sham. The USA will continue the ossupation, Iraqi military power remains in US hands and the USA retains ample political powers, including that of approving the Iraqi government. In other words: it is an empty gesture, nothing will change in fact. The USA does not trust its own puppets. Is Comical Bremmer staying? ---
**Author:** ![mack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b19c9b/32.png) [@mack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mack)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2004, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/14 "2004-04-09T14:12:57Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > I think **Star Was** has something here – if they follow form, the Bush Administration is going to trump up the June 30 pullout and present it to the public as a “We’re bringing the troops home from Iraq!” party. Lots of footage of happy returning soldiers, patriotic speeches, maybe Bush in front of a banner reading “Mission Accomplished.” …Minus the footage of tearful goodbyes and boatloads of soldiers now going _to_ Iraq to replace them. > [@](#): > > **Troop Rotation to Iraq Continues, Units Assuming Control** > WASHINGTON, March 31, 2004 – The largest rotation of U.S. forces since World War II continues in Iraq, Defense Department officials said today. > \ > Officials expect the rotation to continue through May, when 110,000 U.S. service members will be in place. They will replace the 130,000 Americans who have been serving in the region. When the rotation is complete, about 80,000 soldiers, 25,000 Marines and 5,000 Air Force and Navy personnel will be in Iraq. Fourteen brigades will have replaced 17 brigades. > **[U.S. Department of Defense](https://www.defense.gov/)** > > The Department of Defense is America's largest government agency. With our military tracing its roots back to pre-Revolutionary times, the department has grown and evolved with our nation. ---
**Author:** ![MMI](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/53a042/32.png) [@MMI](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MMI)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2004, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/15 "2004-04-09T15:13:56Z")
I’ve been mulling over the possibility that the June 30th deadline might be biting th US in our collective asses right now. Assuming that the various faction leaders believe that the US was indeed pulling out/after June 30th, then from their point of view it is entirely to their benefit to “drive” us out by June 30th. If a faction leader, especially one at odds with the IGC, could claim with some perceived accuracy to have driven out the infidel occupiers, he could gain major political mojo, and be extremely hard to ignore. Of course, this requires aforementioned factions assuming that the US will pull out come hell or high water. This leaves us in a bit of a bind, as we must be determined to avoid the appearance of a Mogadishu/Beiruit/Vietnam style US casualty driven bugout. Being perceived as a bully with a glass jaw is far worse than being perceived as a bully. So now we are stuck in a smackdown mode, which hurts our position with respect to the general Iraqi civilian populace, which feeds the claims of the opposition. Because we cannot pull out until some minimal level of peace and order is restored (and maintain any shred of credibility whatsoever) and the leaders of the guerillas right now have no reason to stop fighting, we are stuck in a pissing contest far worse than the one we were in that led up to the damn invasion in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2004, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/16 "2004-04-09T15:27:24Z")
I don’t see what’s so difficult about this. I can understand why Bush won’t do it, of course, but it’s not so hard. All that’s required is an apology from Bush to the Iraqi people about the way things have been conducted so far, and a hand-over to the UN as peacekeepers until the elections. Upside: Achieves Bush’s stated aims of removing the WMD threat, removing Saddam, and liberating the people of Iraq. Downside: Bush looks like a fucking idiot. ---
**Author:** ![MMI](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/53a042/32.png) [@MMI](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MMI)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2004, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/17 "2004-04-09T15:36:25Z")
> [@Desmostylus](#): > > I don’t see what’s so difficult about this. I can understand why Bush won’t do it, of course, but it’s not so hard. > > All that’s required is an apology from Bush to the Iraqi people about the way things have been conducted so far, and a hand-over to the UN as peacekeepers until the elections. > > Upside: Achieves Bush’s stated aims of removing the WMD threat, removing Saddam, and liberating the people of Iraq. > > Downside: Bush looks like a fucking idiot. The problem is that we don’t want to feed the perception that a few dead Americans will make the US cave. That path led to 9/11. So we have to establish some figleaf of victory before we can even contemplate any other action, however rational. And I am not sure that a well worded non-confession confession/non-apology apology would make Bush’s image worse among anyone except the party faithful. Heck, since the middle of 2002 I 've felt Bush should use some of the humility in foreign policy he preached about in his campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2004, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/18 "2004-04-09T15:58:44Z")
> [@Star Was](#): > > From what I understand there will be no troops returning home any time soon (other than rotational changes). Even rotational changes are being questioned. > [@](#): > > [Iraq Violence May Change Troop Rotation](http://www.in-forum.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D81R5F7G0) > > The surge in violence by anti-occupation forces in Iraq has thrown the U.S. military off balance, and officials say it is highly likely that Gen. John Abizaid, the war’s top commander, will bolster his firepower by keeping more armored forces in Iraq than planned. > > All or parts of the 1st Armored Division, which is scheduled to turn over responsibility for the Baghdad area to the 1st Cavalry Division next week and return home after one year in Iraq, is likely to be ordered to stay. > > Abizaid said in an interview Thursday in Baghdad with The Washington Post that he is holding all forces in place until he decides how to increase his combat power by about 10,000 soldiers. He said he might achieve that by bringing parts of the 3rd Infantry Division back, or by keeping the 1st Armored. The 3rd Infantry fought the first phase of the war and had been told it would be brought back as early as November. Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![Tokyo\_Mann](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e480ec/32.png) [@Tokyo\_Mann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tokyo_Mann)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2004, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/19 "2004-04-10T10:12:41Z")
The administration has already taken care of this, [from Reuters](http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4791744) > [@](#): > > Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Thursday the new interim Iraqi government may have to accept some limits on its sovereignty after the United States hands over authority on July 1. . . . > Asked if he was worried the interim government might demand U.S. troops leave, he said: “The least of my worries is that they are going to tell us prematurely, to leave … because they are going to need us for security for some time to come.” “They will need that kind of protection,” he said. Actually, I had always thought that this was the most likely scenario. We set a deadline, it becomes unreachable, but irreversible because of political pressure, so the only solution is an unpopular puppet government which “invites” us to stay for protection. Bush gets to declare a mission accomplished, and not enough people realize what they’ve been snowed. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2004, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914/20 "2004-04-10T11:50:23Z")
Our problem, our _real_ problem with the June 30 deadline, will be hanging in there for that long. We’re in trouble over there, guys. Even the Iraqi Governing Council is distancing themselves from us. In [Collounsbury](http://www.livejournal.com/users/collounsbury/153856.html)’s apt phrase, “One’s pimpdom is over when your own whores don’t want to be seen with you.” We’re losing control of the roads between Baghdad and the border. We’ve lost control of a number of towns, and of significant sectors of Baghdad. If we stay, we may not be that far from the day they have to helicopter our people out of the Green Zone. This past week, we’ve made war on the Iraqi people, and there’s no winning of that war. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-30th-dealine-about-to-bite-president-bush-in-the-ass/238914.md?page=2)