# Just how accurate can you expect low-level bombings to be? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 25, 2014, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983 "2014-07-25T01:33:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2014, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/41 "2014-07-25T21:52:14Z")
I think an interview with a Palestinian summed it up. “We paid too high a price and can’t stop until we’ve gained something from it.” ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2014, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/42 "2014-07-25T21:56:46Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I think an interview with a Palestinian summed it up. “We paid too high a price and can’t stop until we’ve gained something from it.” > [@](#): > > In traditional microeconomic theory, only prospective (future) costs are relevant to an investment decision. Traditional economics proposes that economic actors should not let sunk costs influence their decisions. Doing so would not be rationally assessing a decision exclusively on its own merits. Alternatively, a decision-maker might make rational decisions according to their own incentives, outside of efficiency or profitability. This is considered to be an incentive problem and is distinct from a sunk cost problem. > > Evidence from behavioral economics suggests this theory fails to predict real-world behavior. Sunk costs do, in fact, influence actors’ decisions because humans are prone to loss aversion and framing effects. In light of such cognitive quirks, it is unsurprising that people frequently fail to behave in ways that economists deem “rational”. > **[Sunk cost](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs)** > > In economics and business decision-making, a sunk cost (also known as retrospective cost) is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Sunk costs are contrasted with prospective costs, which are future costs that may be avoided if action is taken. In other words, a sunk cost is a sum paid in the past that is no longer relevant to decisions about the future. Even though economists argue that sunk costs are no longer relevant to future rational decision-making, people Accordin... It’s like a textbook example, in the political rather than economic sense. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2014, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/43 "2014-07-25T22:02:05Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > They send leaflets and phone the people ahead of time. Short of sending in limos filled with roasted lamb and humus there isn’t much else that can be done to entice people away from hanging out with the missile launching crowd. Well, sometimes they just [knock politely](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israelgaza-conflict-israeli-knock-on-roof-missile-warning-technique-revealed-in-stunning-video-9603179.html). (Also: hummus, not humus. One yummy and good for people, the other yummy and good for plants.) ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/44 "2014-07-26T00:45:42Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > The IDF maybe be using artillery also on these short range strikes, which could be GPS ‘assisted’ shells, but could be unguided shells. Israel has been [accused of using flechette shells in Gaza.](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/20/israel-using-flechette-shells-in-gaza) These use an airburst to spread a shower of small darts over a broad area. Even with accurate shelling and bombing I believe insufficient consideration is being given to the kill radius of stuff that blows up. GPS-assisted shells, bombs, and missiles can be wicked accurate, but a kill radius ranging from 30 meters for a 82mm mortar round to 60 meters for a 500lb bomb. A lot of unintended consequences can happen in that sort of area. > [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I thought these days even dropping unguided bombs was pretty accurate with a modern plane. The target is marked and the HUD displays how to engage that target. I would like a further explanation of that, it being the question asked in the title. 😉 > [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > “Who cares if 20 kids died, we got Aziz!” is a pretty callous thing even for a military commander. But it seems a common diversion used by US spokesmen talking about similar situations in Afghanistan. > [@carnivorousplant](#): > > The target was a ball bearing factory important to the German war effort. I know that strategic bombing in WWII was woefully inaccurate, but did they need to firebomb an entire city to get that one plant? ---
**Author:** ![bldysabba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ecccb3/32.png) [@bldysabba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bldysabba)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/45 "2014-07-26T01:12:28Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > [Sunk cost - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs) > > It’s like a textbook example, in the political rather than economic sense. There’s a reason many textbooks call it the sunk cost fallacy 😉 ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/46 "2014-07-26T01:26:12Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > I know that strategic bombing in WWII was woefully inaccurate, but did they need to firebomb an entire city to get that one plant? As I understand it, that was caused by the immense fire. Bombing from high altitude was very inaccurate, and the huge fire created in the large area near the factory engulfed the city. My favorite composer, Richard Wagner, wrote an opera entitled, “The Mastersingers of Nurnberg.” ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/47 "2014-07-26T01:36:29Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > But it seems a common diversion used by US spokesmen talking about similar situations in Afghanistan. That doesn’t make it better when the US does it, either. > [@carnivorousplant](#): > > My favorite composer, Richard Wagner, wrote an opera entitled, “The Mastersingers of Nurnberg.” Was this a mispost, or am I missing a ton of context? ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/48 "2014-07-26T02:07:20Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > That doesn’t make it better when the US does it, either. Note what that quote was responding to. Callous military commanders can be found anywhere. > [@](#): > > Was this a mispost, or am I missing a ton of context? I’m feeling charitable tonight, so I’m going with mispost. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/49 "2014-07-26T02:21:32Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > As I understand it, that was caused by the immense fire. Bombing from high altitude was very inaccurate, and the huge fire created in the large area near the factory engulfed the city. The city center–think Manhattan or London’s City–was the target. The factories in the suburbs were not. A good place to bomb if you want to mess up railroad traffic, but it’s not where the larger factories were. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/50 "2014-07-26T08:25:21Z")
The Israelis do have bombs that employ dense inert metal explosive, which as I understand can be dropped anywhere without causing damage to nearby buildings. Flesh, on the other hand, is shredded and limbs are taken off at the joints. This would still kill civilians but would not cause damage to infrastructure, so no more children getting killed when a tank shell hits their school. However, since the tungsten micro-shrapnel causes inoperable wounds, it isn’t much better for civilians than the tank and howitzer shells showering Gaza right now. > **[Dense inert metal explosive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dense_inert_metal_explosive)** > > Dense inert metal explosive (DIME) is an experimental type of explosive that has a relatively small but effective blast radius. It is manufactured by producing a homogeneous mixture of an explosive material (such as phlegmatized, HMX or RDX) and small particles of a chemically inert material such as tungsten. It is intended to limit the effective distance of the explosion, to avoid collateral damage in warfare. > The phrase inert metal refers to a metal that is not chemically active and therefor... ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/51 "2014-07-26T08:59:50Z")
I think Israel would be a logical country to develop super-surgical precision strike capabilities. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 9:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/52 "2014-07-26T09:53:22Z")
I’m just waiting for the Israelis to realise that the civilian / military distinction is no longer relevant. What we have here are two populations in conflict and they will remain in conflict until one side is pretty much gone. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 10:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/53 "2014-07-26T10:18:38Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > The target was a ball bearing factory important to the German war effort. The target in [Dresden](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden_in_World_War_II) was the rail marshalling yards, you’re probably thinking of the [Schweinfurt–Regensburg mission](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schweinfurt%E2%80%93Regensburg_mission). Either way though the bombing of Dresden is in no way “widely acknowledged (with the lens of history) to be a war crime because it targeted civilians.” The rail yards were a legitimate military target, flat out targeting of enemy civilians for bombing was accepted military practice by both sides under total war theory at the time, and the scale of the casualties was deliberately grossly inflated by the Nazis: > [@](#): > > Large variations in the claimed death toll have fueled the controversy. In March 1945, the Nazi government ordered its press to publish a falsified casualty figure of 200,000 for the Dresden raids, and death toll estimates as high as 500,000 have been given.[9] The city authorities at the time estimated no more than 25,000 victims, a figure which subsequent investigations, including one commissioned by the city council in 2010, support. Apropos of nothing really, but the movie Memphis Belle was on cable a month or two back. I couldn’t help but get a morbid chuckle as the Memphis Belle aborts the bombing run because they couldn’t get a clear view of the target, an aircraft assembly plant, and there is a hospital or school (I forget which) located near the target so they circle around for another bombing run. Needless to say, the movie was only very loosely based either on fact of the actual Memphis Belle or reality. It may as well have been a WWII homefront propaganda film on the accuracy of precision bombing with the Norden bombsight, which was in actual fact anything but precise. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/54 "2014-07-26T13:29:19Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > 1. Israel has been accused of using flechette shells in Gaza. These use an airburst to spread a shower of small darts over a broad area. > > 2. Even with accurate shelling and bombing I believe insufficient consideration is being given to the kill radius of stuff that blows up. GPS-assisted shells, bombs, and missiles can be wicked accurate, but a kill radius ranging from 30 meters for a 82mm mortar round to 60 meters for a 500lb bomb. A lot of unintended consequences can happen in that sort of area. > > 3. I would like a further explanation of that, it being the question asked in the title. 😉 1. These would be tank rounds rather than artillery rounds as I referred to. However with either one, it’s certainly possible to aim precisely and still kill civilians. 2. True, this is another besides the several reasons I gave, still not an exhaustive list, why guided weapons could, and obviously do, still cause civilian casualties. In the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and drone strikes, the US as employed smaller and smaller guided weapons (like Griffin for example rather than Hellfire) to try to counter this. Also there are versions of the standard bombs with simply less explosive filler (and the rest inert material). Also versions of bombs with composite casing to not generate fragmentation effect like a steel casing, just blast effect which has a smaller danger zone. But these reduced collateral damage weapons aren’t used in all cases, and even when they are, by no means guarantee the safety of civilians. This would seem pretty obvious: if you drop bombs and fire HE shells it’s extremely dangerous to be in the vicinity of the targets and in warfare situations where civilians are in these areas along with combatants, some will die. Nothing can fundamentally change that, only ameliorate it to one degree or another. 3. Further explanation of ‘dumb bomb, smart airplane’. The avionics systems of modern attack a/c from circa 1970’s (the A-7E was the first example in the West, the Israel only A-4N version of the A-4 had a similar outfit) could achieve circular error probable (CEP, circle within which 1/2 the bombs fall) with dumb bombs in dive bombing attacks of only a few 10’s of meters (compared to perhaps 10 or less for geolocation weapons and a few m for laser guided weapons). This wasn’t a historic first, since much slower WWII dive bombers in expert hands could achieve similar CEP. But it was a big improvement over previous jet CEP’s of up to a few 100m and didn’t only apply to the few most capable pilots. Still as of the 1991 war in Kuwait/Iraq such systems with dumb bombs (eg by the large F-16 portion of the US force, A-7’s were also still around, etc) were extensively used alongside laser guided bombs. But that was also before GPS/INS guided bombs. Since then dumb bomb use in advanced AF’s has declined to little. Given how much it costs, all in (plane, pilot, fuel everything) to mount a modern strike sortie, the cost difference between a dumb bomb and a GPS bomb is pretty negligible. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/55 "2014-07-26T14:06:10Z")
It is never acceptable to target a school or hospital in war. It is always acceptable (provided the underlying war is justified) to target a weapons emplacement. If the weapons emplacement is so close to a school or hospital that it is impossible for the enemy to attack the weapons emplacement without collateral damage to the school or hospital, then that is the fault of whoever placed the weapons. ---
**Author:** ![BrotherCadfael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@BrotherCadfael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrotherCadfael)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/56 "2014-07-26T14:33:40Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > True, but there’s middle ground between not caring and not shooting. If Israel didn’t care at all how many Palestinians were killed, they’d just go all Dresden on Gaza. Hey, Harry Dresden is EXTREMELY concerned with avoiding civilian casualties. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/57 "2014-07-26T16:35:30Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > 1. These would be tank rounds rather than artillery rounds as I referred to. It’s a cannon either way. Tanks are mobile artillery pieces to any but the pickiest nit picker. The rest of your post was interesting and informative. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/58 "2014-07-26T17:15:29Z")
> [@BrotherCadfael](#): > > Hey, Harry Dresden is EXTREMELY concerned with avoiding civilian casualties. My first thought was that it was a comment on something in the novels. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/59 "2014-07-26T19:29:29Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > The city center–think Manhattan or London’s City–was the target. The factories in the suburbs were not. A good place to bomb if you want to mess up railroad traffic, but it’s not where the larger factories were. I agree with the points **Malthus** is making in this thread. In the context of Dresden, the Allies had an obvious _jus ad bellum_ against Germany. In fact for some of the Allies (like the United States), Germany actually had declared war first, and thus the United States had little choice as to whether it was going to be in a war against Germany or not. But the firebombing of Dresden is a separate question from that, and I do believe the specifics of the Dresden firebombing were unjustified morally, and violated appropriate conduct of war in terms of the legal considerations of what’s valid war conduct vs illegal war conduct. (I’ll just note, I don’t believe in war crimes or international law as concepts, but I can discuss them for the purposes of this and similar threads.) Dresden was firebombed intentionally to terrorize the German population, and was primarily chosen because it had been relatively unscathed and thus was seen as a good target for such activity. You can argue that Germany had done the exact same thing during the Battle of Britain, but Germany breaking the laws of war doesn’t mean it’s okay for the Allies to do the same thing. The firebombing of Dresden was unjustified conduct thus for a few reasons: 1. Advanced limited / no valid military aims 2. Was primarily conducted in order to terrorize and kill civilians (civilian terror / casualties were the primary goal) 3. Was conducted indiscriminately, with no regard for who would be targeted I would actually argue the firebombing of Dresden is clearly a violation of understood laws of war, whereas you can have a more rigorous debate about the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima. While civilians were with certainty going to die en masse from the attack, at least part of the calculation there was indeed general preservation of life. Not just American soldiers (that was the primary, but valid, goal), but Japanese civilians and infrastructure. Israeli strikes on hospitals being used as launch pads for rockets is to me dissimilar from Dresden in terms of a _jus in bello_ question, because the Israeli strikes have a primarily military goal, and primarily a military target. If the only legal military action is one that not only targets valid military targets, but which you must be _certain_ cannot kill civilians, then no war can be legal. Maybe a nice idea but since wars will always happen, for “laws of war” to have any meaning at all such a regime doesn’t work. I think instead if the strikes meet a few criteria such as: 1. Efforts are taken so that the military objectives can be achieved while minimizing civilian casualties 2. The primary target is military in nature Then whether or not Hamas has human shields or is using civilian buildings as military launch facilities is irrelevant as to whether or not the Israeli action is appropriate. I don’t know enough about each bombing the IDF has carried out to know how many fit these guidelines. If they’re using fragmentation weapons in civilian areas, it would probably violate the concept of taking efforts to minimize civilian casualties. But the fact that they do issue warnings is evidence they’re taking some efforts to minimize civilian casualties. To me a smart-bomb going after a rocket launch site that happens to be a hospital, as long as the bomb isn’t say, over-powerful and thus going to be a needless risk to surrounding civilians, is fine. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2014, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983/60 "2014-07-26T19:35:46Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > The target in [Dresden](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden_in_World_War_II) was the rail marshalling yards, you’re probably thinking of the [Schweinfurt–Regensburg mission](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schweinfurt%E2%80%93Regensburg_mission). Either way though the bombing of Dresden is in no way “widely acknowledged (with the lens of history) to be a war crime because it targeted civilians.” The rail yards were a legitimate military target, flat out targeting of enemy civilians for bombing was accepted military practice by both sides under total war theory at the time, and the scale of the casualties was deliberately grossly inflated by the Nazis: I do think the scale of the casualties has been exaggerated by some. But I’m not really a believer in the 1953 USAF Report, which I think can be called a “white wash.” Yes, there were valid military targets in Dresden, identified in a report prepared 8 years after the fact and whose creation was intended solely to justify the attack. But almost none of these targets were actually targeted in the bombing, many of them were actually well outside of Dresden proper. It’s questionable how using incendiary bombs on civilian neighborhoods, which would be certain to cause a conflagration, has much to do with military and infrastructural targets many miles away, many of which were not/never targeted by the bombing at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-accurate-can-you-expect-low-level-bombings-to-be/693983.md?page=4)