# Just how advanced is modern technology? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 14, 2019, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644 "2019-08-14T04:42:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/21 "2019-08-14T16:32:43Z")
Well, at the risk of sounding like the guy who said “close down the patent office. Everything has already been invented.”, what IF things we predict for the future won’t work? What if the universe does not allow at all faster than light drive, reactionless thrusters, teleportation, Star trek-like senor tech, tractor beams, force fields? What if it is essentially impossible because of power and weight and shielding considerations to travel faster than say .2c? What if matter-energy conversion just won’t work on a useful scale (no portable replicators)? What if nano-tech just won’t work (that you can’t make a complicated circuit small enough)? What if there are no undiscovered super strong materials to make space elevators or ringworlds or whatnot out of? What if controllable fusion power just isn’t possible on a useful scale? What if hard wiring into a mind just isn’t possible? That is, what if it isn’t a question of technology advancement, but fundamental laws of the universe? Then maybe we actually are near the top of the technology scale. And no one will ever know, because space travel would be for all purposes impossible. Maybe this is all there is? ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/22 "2019-08-14T16:44:46Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > What if the universe does not allow at all faster than light drive, reactionless thrusters, teleportation, Star trek-like senor tech, tractor beams, force fields? Then the people who think of science fiction as “syfy” will be greatly disappointed but the people who study real science won’t be remotely suprised. Add to that anti-gravity, (non-accelerational) artificial gravity, tiny but human-level or beyond AIs, and open air 3D holograms. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/23 "2019-08-14T17:10:04Z")
> [@cjackson](#): > > What does physics say the limit of technology is? Physics has no idea. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/24 "2019-08-14T17:47:46Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > What if the universe does not allow at all faster than light drive, reactionless thrusters, teleportation, Star trek-like senor tech, tractor beams, force fields? What if it is essentially impossible because of power and weight and shielding considerations to travel faster than say .2c? Why would any of that stop us from developing interstellar travel? We could send interstellar probes using principles we already know about - it’s just a matter of making the designs more mature and/or allocating more resources. Even human interstellar travel is likely possible if we devote enough resources to it. > [@](#): > > What if matter-energy conversion just won’t work on a useful scale (no portable replicators)? What if nano-tech just won’t work (that you can’t make a complicated circuit small enough)? What if there are no undiscovered super strong materials to make space elevators or ringworlds or whatnot out of? What if controllable fusion power just isn’t possible on a useful scale? What if hard wiring into a mind just isn’t possible? … > > Then maybe we actually are near the top of the technology scale. And no one will ever know, because space travel would be for all purposes impossible. Maybe this is all there is? Do you honestly see no middle ground between where we are now, and the fantasy world of Star Trek where anything can be replicated, a bus-sized spaceship can take you to another star in a few days, and even travel through time at will? ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/25 "2019-08-14T20:20:49Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > Don’t expect microchips and high-speed aircraft of 100, 1,000, or 100,000 years from now to be hugely more powerful than they are today. Then we’ll find alternatives to microchips and high-speed aircraft. We don’t still use vacuum tubes and biplanes. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/26 "2019-08-14T20:27:37Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > We are at the stage were some things are very, very hard to improve. Microchips, for example. We have reached the point where some parts of a transistor are just a few atoms wide, and quantum tunneling is getting to be a major factor (data leaking away.) Aircraft speed is another–the supersonic Blackbird got so hot while in flight that it had to be designed with loose, leaky fuel lines while on the ground because they would heat and expand during flight, plus the plane [had to fuel up after taking off](https://theaviationgeekclub.com/former-sr-71-driver-explains-why-the-blackbird-had-to-refuel-after-takeoff/) because it needed an inert gas in the fuel tanks. Don’t expect microchips and high-speed aircraft of 100, 1,000, or 100,000 years from now to be hugely more powerful than they are today. IN fact, in terms of passenger aircraft, we have stepped back a bit. In the 1970s the Concorde flew you across the ocean at Mach 2.0 . Now, and for the foreseeable future, we are limited to subsonic. There is an argument that has been made that, with the exception of computers, there hasn’t been a lot of progress since the 1970s. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/27 "2019-08-14T20:30:10Z")
> [@ASL\_v2.0](#): > > As of 2017, we were a [0.7279 on Sagan’s Kardashev scale](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Tangentially related (relates to energy development), but at least quantifiable. I think more in terms of the cost of energy. A lot of amazing tech advances can happen with much cheaper energy. So, real life, no kidding, fusion would be very nice if it merely matches the cost of current (;)) sources. Lot’s of pluses there. But if it is even cheaper, then things change a _lot_. But note that there’s a lot of base costs that keep things from becoming “free”. Even solar power is now dominated by all the secondary costs and not cell efficiency, etc. And we don’t know if there’s a real breakthrough possible or not. So where we on the scale when we don’t know the range is impossible. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/28 "2019-08-14T21:00:19Z")
Planet earth _as a whole_ has _terrible_ technology; the vast vast majority of the earth’s population only has access to medium quality technology; many have access to far, far worse. And that’s only talking about the populated areas! Large chunks of the earth’s surface is covered with water sporting no greater technology than pollutants and garbage. ---
**Author:** ![ASL\_v2.0](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asl_v2.0/32/3525_2.png) [@ASL\_v2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASL_v2.0)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/29 "2019-08-14T21:20:10Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > Large chunks of the earth’s surface is covered with water sporting no greater technology than pollutants and garbage. Nomadic tribespeople scraping out a meager existence on the fringes of the habitable regions during the last ice age would have killed for a plastic bag. How dare you disparage the pacific garbage patch! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/30 "2019-08-14T21:39:06Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > Don’t expect microchips and high-speed aircraft of 100, 1,000, or 100,000 years from now to be hugely more powerful than they are today. 100 years ago the Sopwith Camel was the epitome of aviation achievement 1000 years ago a “computer” was a bunch of beads sliding back and forth on wires. 100,000 years ago, cutting edge technology was a “rock”. I think it’s impossible to predict how civilization will change from various scientific advancements over the next hundred years, let alone a length of time longer than “civilization” has even existed. > [@zimaane](#): > > IN fact, in terms of passenger aircraft, we have stepped back a bit. In the 1970s the Concorde flew you across the ocean at Mach 2.0 . Now, and for the foreseeable future, we are limited to subsonic. > > There is an argument that has been made that, with the exception of computers, there hasn’t been a lot of progress since the 1970s. If your only metric was top speed, then yes. However, it’s not like mankind lost the secret to faster than sound air travel. And lets not dismiss the impact of computers on every aspect of …well…basically everything. I think it’s hard to visualize much of the progress made over the past 40+ years because much of it is in things like materials, fuel efficiency, safety, ergonomics, manufacturing. These advances aren’t as obvious as ones from a few centuries ago such as moving from farms to factories or suddenly having electric lights on every block. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/31 "2019-08-14T22:08:30Z")
We are not at the point of A,B,C,D,F grades and the like. We are too young for that, we would get a F and not even understand the questions if we had a flat level test. However our current ability includes our ability to progress, in that a basic score can be evaluated. I would first rate it us as perhaps pre-K or K level at most. Actually perhaps a step back to nursery school. As our grades are age dependent. In such a school we get 'needs improvement ‘in plays well with others’. As for the question our technology, it’s for us ‘able to put some bricks together to form different objects’ I think we will be categorizes as very good, excels at such tasks. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/32 "2019-08-14T22:36:12Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > Then we’ll find alternatives to microchips and high-speed aircraft. We don’t still use vacuum tubes and biplanes. That sounds much more like religious conviction than scientific certainty. What–exactly–do you propose for sub-atomic, cheap, room-temperature general purpose computers? It won’t be quantum computers or DNA or other molecular computers–those are faster only in very specialized areas. It won’t be optical computers or gallium arsinide computers or graphine computers–those would be only a bit faster than current computers, nothing to match the orders of magnitude increases in the past 50 years. What do you propose to use other than atoms, electrons, or photons? Science isn’t magic. Just because you wish something is possible doesn’t make it possible. ---
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/33 "2019-08-14T22:57:42Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > Don’t expect microchips and high-speed aircraft of 100, 1,000, or 100,000 years from now to be hugely more powerful than they are today. I fully expect to see microchips/cpus hugely more powerful than today. We may be hitting the limits of current processor design, but that doesn’t mean other approaches being investigated will all fail. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/34 "2019-08-14T23:00:29Z")
I look at it this way, the Romans could probably reverse engineer most of 1900 technology. Today’s tech, no chance. In 100 years we progressed more then we did in 2000 years. ---
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2019, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/35 "2019-08-14T23:00:37Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > Why would any of that stop us from developing interstellar travel? We could send interstellar probes using principles we already know about - it’s just a matter of making the designs more mature and/or allocating more resources. Even human interstellar travel is likely possible if we devote enough resources to it. > > Do you honestly see no middle ground between where we are now, and the fantasy world of Star Trek where anything can be replicated, a bus-sized spaceship can take you to another star in a few days, and even travel through time at will? What good is interstellar travel in the short term if it takes thousands of years to get anywhere? How fast do you think a probe using principles we already know about is going to go? If you can’t go fast, interstellar probes will only return data to your great^X grandchildren, at best. Good for humanity, not good for carving out a space empire. But you missed my point.I’m not saying we’re at the end of technology. I was asking WHAT IF you can’t invent anything more. All this “well, we’ll just invent it” is just almost a religious belief. All this talk of the glorious future that someday we’ll understand. What if this is it? We may understand the universe better, but what if that understanding means we know for sure that we can’t do anything with it. You can’t change G. You can’t have a hadron computer. ---
**Author:** ![cjackson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a3d4f5/32.png) [@cjackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cjackson)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2019, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/36 "2019-08-15T00:04:24Z")
How is our technology relative to The Expanse? What about Interstellar? Why can we not make wood in the lab? Trees make it out of air, so you would think it would be simple. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2019, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/37 "2019-08-15T00:39:24Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > 100,000 years ago, cutting edge technology was a “rock”. But you had to break the rock to actually get a cutting edge… ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2019, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/38 "2019-08-15T00:53:45Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > But we still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea, so we have a ways to improve. Well, let’s be fair: A lot of the younger hairless apes have progressed on to thinking smartphones are a pretty neat idea. > [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > But you had to break the rock to actually get a cutting edge… “…The secret is to bang the rocks together, guys.” ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2019, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/39 "2019-08-15T01:09:45Z")
> [@cjackson](#): > > Why can we not make wood in the lab? Trees make it out of air, so you would think it would be simple. We don’t need to make wood in the lab, we have trees. What we do have is 3D printing which is much more powerful. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2019, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644/40 "2019-08-15T01:40:14Z")
Not very. Modern technology arguably didn’t even start until the industrial revolution (arguably it goes back to the scientific revolution and agricultural revolution before that). But most modern tech is under 150 years old or so. Seeing how the universe will continue to exist for a long time, we’ve barely begun. Stars will exist for trillions of years. Black holes for far longer. I’m guessing a future society will learn how to travel to younger universes, create new universes, etc which means their tech will continue near indefinitely. So in that scale, we are embryonic at best. . [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-advanced-is-modern-technology/838644.md?page=3)