# Just how effective are background checks? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 17, 2016, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260 "2016-11-17T15:33:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/1 "2016-11-17T15:33:39Z")
Here in Maine, we had a background check referendum turned down by the voters. The idea was to require the same check for private sales and transfers, as if you had bought from a dealer. One of the biggest reasons for opposition was that it wouldn’t accomplish anything. IIRC, 18 states already have similar measures. What effect did it have in those states? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/2 "2016-11-17T18:57:33Z")
I think you’ve missed the point of gun control. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/3 "2016-11-17T19:09:18Z")
No, he’s probably already aware that the point of gun control legislation is to decrease the levels of violence in this nation to something approaching that of the rest of the civilized world. He might even know that this particular sort of gun control legislation used to be supported by the NRA. ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/4 "2016-11-17T19:20:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > No, he’s probably already aware that the point of gun control legislation is to decrease the levels of violence in this nation to something approaching that of the rest of the civilized world. He might even know that this particular sort of gun control legislation used to be supported by the NRA. Thank you. Maine has been a source of trafficked guns because they are so easy to buy here. I even know some people who are NRA members and supported this initiative. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/5 "2016-11-17T23:28:28Z")
This discussion is more directly related to gun control than to eections. Moving from Elections to Great Debates. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/6 "2016-11-18T00:09:18Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > No, he’s probably already aware that the point of gun control legislation is to decrease the levels of violence in this nation to something approaching that of the rest of the civilized world. He might even know that this particular sort of gun control legislation used to be supported by the NRA. Except gun control legislation doesnt decrease the levels of violence in the USA. Areas with strict gun controls often have more violent crime that areas with open carry, open CCW permits etc. Not because more guns= less crime, but because we are America, and gun ownership is part of what we, as a nation, are. Other nations have do have less violent crime with more controls yes- Western Europe for example. But they never had a high rate of violent crime as compared to America. Other nations, such as Mexico, have strict gun control, and out of control violent crime. It seems more sociological than guns. Access to guns in American just doesnt seem to have any significant effect (one way or the other) on violent crime rates. Possibly because there are just so damn many guns, and so few are used in a crime. ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/7 "2016-11-18T02:06:47Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think you’ve missed the point of gun control. Go on then, what is the point of gun control? I always thought it was about reducing violence. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/8 "2016-11-18T03:35:06Z")
One problem with background checks is that they do nothing to stop a first-time criminal. Every criminal has a clean background prior to committing his/her first crime. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/9 "2016-11-18T14:31:13Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > Go on then, what is the point of gun control? I always thought it was about reducing violence. “We have to do something, this is something, therefore we have to do it.” The point of gun control is to do that something. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/10 "2016-11-18T22:13:12Z")
I used regression analysis to develop a Java application where you can play around with various statistics and see how it affects the homicide rate. The ones that I found which had the most predictive quality were income disparity and ethnic diversity. In general, a high income disparity causes homicides. Ethnic diversity is a strange one in that, if it is very low, the homicide rate will be low and, if it is very high, the homicide rate will be low. There’s a weird intermediate zone where homicide increases. Though, these are all dependent on the state of the other variables - those just seemed to be the two largest predictors. For some countries, more guns brought the homicide rate down, for others it brought it up. Generally, it’s fairly flat. In the case of the US, higher gun ownership is predicted to decrease the homicide rate. I wanted to wait until there wasn’t just a big shooting that happened to post the application. I’ll do so tonight when I get home. ---
**Author:** ![UberArchetype](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/2bfe46/32.png) [@UberArchetype](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UberArchetype)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/11 "2016-11-18T22:27:02Z")
Misplaced fear leads to dumb over-reacting. People should not be afraid of guns. They especially should not try to legislate their fear of guns into the political discourse of a country so well-armed it would scare the hell out of Genghis khan, were he looking at the prospect of a modern-day North American conquest. ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/12 "2016-11-18T22:32:49Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > Go on then, what is the point of gun control? I always thought it was about reducing violence. No, that would be violence control. The point of _gun control_ is to reduce the number of guns. And though that is very difficult to do, when it does actually occur, we find that it has exactly zero effect on rates of violence. ---
**Author:** ![Zero-syde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Zero-syde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zero-syde)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/13 "2016-11-18T23:12:55Z")
> [@DrCube](#): > > No, that would be violence control. The point of _gun control_ is to reduce the number of guns. And though that is very difficult to do, when it does actually occur, we find that it has exactly zero effect on rates of violence. While it’s true that Australia doesn’t exist, and it’s also true that States with gun controls in effect that are geographically surrounded by States with similar gun laws have astronomically high rates of gun violence, one shouldn’t be hesitant to point out that any day now, Obummer is going to take all of our guns, declare martial law, and commence the white genocide. You’re absolutely correct, but why stop with only half the truth? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2016, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/14 "2016-11-19T09:17:38Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > I used regression analysis to develop a Java application where you can play around with various statistics and see how it affects the homicide rate. […] I wanted to wait until there wasn’t just a big shooting that happened to post the application. I’ll do so tonight when I get home. Spoilering since this is an executable. You’ll just need to trust that it’s virus-free, I guess, but it was developed by me and has been modified by no other. Since it’s a Java jar, you might have to look on the web to see how to run it, though. It might not run straight off the bat, depending on how your system is set up. [Dropbox](https://www.dropbox.com/s/a9jcc4a5ap0o66q/homicide.jar?dl=0) It starts out with the USA dialed in. The stats on which the polynomial regression was run are: > **[List of countries by intentional homicide rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate)** > > The list of countries by UNODC homicide rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 100,000 individuals per year. A homicide rate of 30 (out of 100,000) corresponds to 0.03% of the population dying by homicide. The reliability of underlying national murder rate data may vary. Only UNODC-vetted data is used in the main table below. In some cases, it may not be as up to date as other sources. See further down as to why its data is used over other sources. > Homicide rates may be under-report... > **[Estimated number of civilian guns per capita by country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country)** > > This is a list of countries by estimated number of privately owned guns per 100 people. The Small Arms Survey 2017 provides estimates of the total number of civilian-owned guns in a country. It then calculates the number per 100 people. This number for a country does not indicate the percentage of the population that owns guns. This is because individuals can own more than one gun. > See also: Percent of households with guns by country. It gives the percent of households with guns. It is furthe... [http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/GII](http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/GII) > **[List of countries by income equality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality)** > > This is a list of countries or dependencies by income inequality metrics, including Gini coefficients. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality (where everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality (where one person has all the income—and everyone else has no income). > Income distribution can vary greatly from wealth distribution in a country (see List of countries by wealth inequality). Income from black market economi... > **[List of countries by ethnic and cultural diversity level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_ranked_by_ethnic_and_cultural_diversity_level)** > > This is a list of countries by ethnic and cultural diversity level, as per Fearon's analysis. > The lists are commonly used in economics literature to compare the levels of ethnic, cultural, linguistic and religious fractionalization in different countries. > Fractionalization is the probability that two individuals drawn randomly from the country's groups are not from the same group (ethnic, religious, or whatever the criterion is). In Fearon's analysis, only groups containing over one percent ... > **[List of sovereign states by sex ratio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_sex_ratio)** > > The human sex ratio is the comparative number of males with respect to each female in a population. This is a list of sex ratios by country or region. > The table's data is from The World Factbook unless noted otherwise. It shows the male to female sex ratio by the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States. If there is a discrepancy between The World Factbook and a country's census data, the latter may be used instead. > A ratio above 1, for example 1.1, means there are more males than fe... For the gender ratio, I subtracted 1 from the value since it doesn’t add anything. Some things to note: 1. The formula will pick a best-fit curve regardless of whether there was actually any real correlation. 2. Everything is a curve, since it’s based on polynomials. This performed better (i.e., the average difference between prediction and reality is closer) than linear regression, but that doesn’t mean that everything curves all nice like it does. A flat, horizontal correlation will end up as a bump or a dip, no matter what. (See point 1). 3. I remember noticing, back when I developed this, that Colombia was predicted to have a far lower homicide rate than given in the original data. However, I then later saw in a different set of data - for a different year - that the homicide rate in Colombia was basically what had been predicted. I’m not sure if the year that is listed on the Wikipedia was a bad year there (gang killings?), but it does seem plausible that countries on the edge of a metric are more likely to fluctuate wildly, so you might take that into account if you try dialing in different countries. So overall, this is possibly indicative of general ideas, probably not very good for real predictions, but also not horrible. It’s cold, reliable, math, but it’s not magic. ---
**Author:** ![CookingWithGas](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cookingwithgas/32/485_2.png) [@CookingWithGas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CookingWithGas)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/15 "2016-11-21T20:05:26Z")
> [@Zero-syde](#): > > While it’s true that Australia doesn’t exist[…] I am not pro-gun; I think we have too many guns, but I am pro facts. Australia has not had a single mass shooting since they banned guns, but [there was no statistically significant change in firearm homicides after the gun ban.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/22/what-happened-when-australia-actually-did-something-to-stop-gun-violence/) Gun homicide rates did fall, but so did rates of other types of homicides. ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2016, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/16 "2016-11-21T21:14:36Z")
Are there any numbers from background check states about how that may have effected rates of gun violence and trafficking? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2016, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/17 "2016-11-21T21:18:05Z")
**boffking** , did you vote on the referendum? If so, why are you asking these questions now? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2016, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/18 "2016-11-21T21:24:43Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > Are there any numbers from background check states about how that may have effected rates of gun violence and trafficking? The FBI compiles statistics for each year on violent crimes. I believe they have a table specifying the number of homicides broken down by “means”. You could probably go fiddle with those numbers and pick a control group (neighboring states, region, similar demographics, all 50 states, etc) and time frame that tells the story you want it to. Welcome to the “post-truth” society. ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2016, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/19 "2016-11-21T21:25:05Z")
I voted yes on the referendum. The opposition had a major push at the end claiming that background checks are ineffective at stopping crime. This led to it being turned down by a narrow margin. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260/20 "2016-11-21T21:29:44Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > I voted yes on the referendum. The opposition had a major push at the end claiming that background checks are ineffective at stopping crime. This led to it being turned down by a narrow margin. Just curious, which county do you live in? Did your sheriff take a position on the referendum? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/just-how-effective-are-background-checks/772260.md?page=2)