# Kaine = Hillary Thinks She's Gonna Win By a Landslide **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 24, 2016, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738 "2016-07-24T01:48:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/21 "2016-07-24T04:30:52Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Evidently the OP isn’t watching the polls. It’s a toss up right now. On the contrary. I have seen the polls. Trump is under 40% in almost all states, even ones he’s “Winning.” He needs to hold ALL of Mitt Romney’s states (he isn’t) and flip several big ones besides (he probably can’t). Trump needs EVERY break to go his way. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/22 "2016-07-24T04:47:08Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > On the contrary. I have seen the polls. Trump is under 40% in almost all states, even ones he’s “Winning.” Huh? No idea what you’re talking about. According to 538’s rollup estimate Trump is above 40% in most states. If you don’t believe me, just look it up: > **[Alabama | 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/alabama/)** > > Alabama predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump > [@](#): > > He needs to hold ALL of Mitt Romney’s states (he isn’t)[ and flip several big ones besides (he probably can’t). “Probably” is a lot closer than you think. Load up Sam Wang’s projection model. If you add two points to Trump, he just barely is the favourite to win the election. Add three, and he wins very likely. People seem unwilling to accept something that is objectively true, based on all available evidence and well-tested, empirical observation of that evidence; Trump has a very good chance of winning. > [@](#): > > Trump needs EVERY break to go his way. Sure, if you held the election today, he’d have to exceed his overall expectation by two to three percent, and he’d win. That doesn’t strike me as being a huge break. ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/23 "2016-07-24T04:47:09Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > The selection of safe, uninspiring Tim Kaine means exactly what the selection of Joe Biden meant 8 years ago: the Democrat nominee thinks the election is in the bag, and therefore sees no need to pick an exciting running mate. > > Hillary thinks she’s going to slaughter Trump. I think she’s right. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Remember, even if Trump loses, he’ll make Billions off of this… enough for all of his kids to build mansions in Newport and Still have 6 generations of ‘Old Money’ trust funds each. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/24 "2016-07-24T05:04:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not if liberals are apparently going to get 75% of what they want if she wins. Get that number down to 25% and then she’ll win in a landslide. If we don’t flip the HoR AND the Senate, and flip them BIG, 25% will seem like a pipe dream. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/25 "2016-07-24T05:07:49Z")
And people I work with think he’ll win in a landslide over Hillary. What I find amusing is that there are [people](https://www.yahoo.com/tv/dora-explorer-under-fire-trump-surrogate-rips-tim-213355099.html) ripping into Kaine because he speaks Spanish. Some Republicans are referring to him/referencing “Dora the Explorer” because of it. I suppose one could be forgiven for thinking that, despite Trump’s obvious bond with the Hispanics, where he says he’ll do very well, others in the party feel the need to keep the racist/xenophobic door open for possible later usage. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/26 "2016-07-24T05:20:27Z")
> [@Superdude](#): > > What I find amusing is that there are [people](https://www.yahoo.com/tv/dora-explorer-under-fire-trump-surrogate-rips-tim-213355099.html) ripping into Kaine because he speaks Spanish. Some Republicans are referring to him/referencing “Dora the Explorer” because of it. That’s stupid. If anything, they should reference “Go, Diego, Go!” Can’t people even hate right these days? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/27 "2016-07-24T05:24:47Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Someone on a blog I read wrote about this today. Both Democrats and Republicans pick VP candidates as assassination insurance. Democrats pick for continuity in case of assassination, and Republicans pick for prevention of assassination. Often, but not always. GWB picked Dick Cheney because he knew he needed help, and Reagan’s pick of Bush 41 was quite solid given Bush’s resume. But then there’s Quayle and Palin, and while I love Paul Ryan, I don’t think Paul Ryan was ready to be President in 2012. He was the “exciting” pick while barely crossing the plausibilty threshold. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/28 "2016-07-24T05:25:16Z")
> [@Superdude](#): > > What I find amusing is that there are [people](https://www.yahoo.com/tv/dora-explorer-under-fire-trump-surrogate-rips-tim-213355099.html) ripping into Kaine because he speaks Spanish. Some Republicans are referring to him/referencing “Dora the Explorer” because of it. It’s kind of hilarious reading the comments on that. All of these right-wing reprobates complaining about Kaine speaking Spanish instead of English while murdering English like it killed their favorite pet… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/29 "2016-07-24T05:27:43Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > If we don’t flip the HoR AND the Senate, and flip them BIG, 25% will seem like a pipe dream. 25% is what liberals should get IF they control everything. If a Democratic Presidential candidate is running around promising to give liberals most of what they want, that’s called the Walter Mondale campaign. Clinton’s selection of Kaine tells me that the move back to the center has begun in earnest. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/30 "2016-07-24T05:36:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Often, but not always. GWB picked Dick Cheney because he knew he needed help, and Reagan’s pick of Bush 41 was quite solid given Bush’s resume. But then there’s Quayle and Palin, and while I love Paul Ryan, I don’t think Paul Ryan was ready to be President in 2012. He was the “exciting” pick while barely crossing the plausibilty threshold. Ideally, a Presidential candidate wants to be able to pick a VP with an eye to who will work well in their administration not who will help them win the election. If your presidential campaign is at a point where you _need_ a vice presidential pick then you’re in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/31 "2016-07-24T05:37:30Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Evidently the OP isn’t watching the polls. It’s a toss up right now. No it isn’t. It’s only a tossup if you ignore the Electoral College. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/32 "2016-07-24T05:39:35Z")
Seems like a good pick. Appeals to those that want competency, “qualified”, white males, Spanish speakers, comes from a swing state, etc. to balance out Hillary. Warren would put two women of roughly the same age on the ticket and risk a senate seat. Castro could turn out the Hispanic vote, but the kid hasn’t done much. As pointed out upthread, blacks are already in Hillary’s camp so Booker isn’t such a critical draw. The hardcore Bern supporters are either going to hold their nose and vote for Hillary, go third party protest or not vote. The rest of the Bernie supporters already had Hillary as plan B, or they will hold their nose to keep Trump away from the nuclear codes. I’m not convinced that the hardcore Bernie supporters that will actually turn out and vote are all that great in number and probably those that Kaine will win over is a larger number. I hope that the GOP keep up the Dora the Explorer jibes. That appeals to the xenophobic ignorant white male base that are already in camp Trump, and does nothing but help turn out the vote with the Spanish speaking population. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/33 "2016-07-24T05:41:24Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > The selection of safe, uninspiring Tim Kaine means exactly what the selection of Joe Biden meant 8 years ago: the Democrat nominee thinks the election is in the bag, and therefore sees no need to pick an exciting running mate. > > Hillary thinks she’s going to slaughter Trump. I think she’s right. I don’t know what Michael Moore’s record is as a prognosticator, but he disagrees with you. > [@](#): > > I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.” [http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/](http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/34 "2016-07-24T06:14:25Z")
Michael Moore, like most partisan flamethrowers, does better when the party that is most against him is in power. No one cares what Michael Moore has to say when he’s attacking Democrats. But put a Trump or Bush in the WH and Moore’s going to be raking in the $$$$$. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/35 "2016-07-24T06:21:01Z")
I still don’t see any evidence that Clinton isn’t taking Trump seriously. I’m sure she and her staff is taking him more seriously than some of his supporters. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/36 "2016-07-24T06:27:36Z")
I don’t doubt she’s taking him seriously, but her campaign strategy is garbage. Picking Kaine helps her because it demonstrates that she can govern, but as a candidate she’s still terrible. Tens of millions spent trying to tell people what they already knew about Trump. You have to attack him at his strength: he’s not a straight shooter, he’s as much of a liar as everyone. Bluntness is not necessarily truthfulness. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/37 "2016-07-24T06:32:08Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > No it isn’t. It’s only a tossup if you ignore the Electoral College. This is what most people miss. Factoring that in makes a big difference. Here’s an interactive map that’s updated daily. As you can see, Clinton is WAY ahead. > **[Princeton Election Consortium Electoral Map - 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium)** > > The Princeton Election Consortium forecast for the likelihood of a Clinton or Trump victory in each state, based on polling ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/38 "2016-07-24T06:32:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t think Clinton is assuming a big win, so much as assuming that she should win as long as she doesn’t screw anything else up. > > I also want to beat my head against a wall when really smart people here talk about “boring” picks, or get excited just because he surprised them with a good speech. Obama and Clinton have ruined the party in one respect: even the smart voters demand sizzle instead of steak. Tim Kaine is a big, meaty steak and he would be even if he had gone up to the podium today and put everyone to sleep. Holy Shit! I totally agree with **adaher** and think this is an excellent, astute post. Heavens! ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/39 "2016-07-24T06:42:07Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Kaine will do nothing to attract Hispanic voters, and Hillary would have picked an Hispanic running mate if she thought she needed a big Hispanic turnout. You are absolutely wrong, based on responses from and discussions with members of my wife’s family. That Kaine speaks Spanish, albeit with a jarringly American accent, makes it easier for Hispanics to feel a connection with him. It makes a difference, and will definitely help Hillary …as much as any VP pick can help a presidential nominee. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2016, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738/40 "2016-07-24T06:44:33Z")
To bring up the fact that Kaine was on Obama’s short list in 2008, according to one source, Kaine was actually the pick, but the Russo-Georgian conflict changed Obama’s mind and he felt he needed someone with more foreign policy chops: > **[Talkin’ Kaine | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/senator-tim-kaine-08-now-over-years/)** > > Sometime during the first Obama term, I met an experienced Washington insider and had a question for him. “I can’t understand why Obama chose Biden as veep in ’08. What does Biden bring, really, ex… Now I figure most of you don’t read the Corner, but you might be pleasantly surprised at how positive many National Review writers are about Tim Kaine: > [@](#): > > Sometime during the first Obama term, I met an experienced Washington insider and had a question for him. “I can’t understand why Obama chose Biden as veep in ’08. What does Biden bring, really, except baggage?” The insider said, “They had settled on Kaine. But then the Russo-Georgian conflict erupted. And Obama’s remarks on it were judged to be amateurish. John McCain was thought to be mature. So the Dem team said, ‘Un-oh: Better get the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.’” I have no idea whether it’s true. But it’s interesting. One more note: I always feared Tim Kaine as a Democratic presidential nominee (back when I was a Republican, and a grateful, die-hard one). Reason: He was not an ideologue, he was not a hater — he was a human being. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kaine-hillary-thinks-shes-gonna-win-by-a-landslide/760738.md?page=3)