# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/181 "2024-07-31T22:08:36Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Harris is given a 54% chance of winning the popular vote, but only a 38% chance of winning the (insert your own expletives here) Electoral College. Nate’s model is up to a 43% chance for Harris to win the Electoral College as of this afternoon. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/182 "2024-08-01T13:21:17Z")
Latest poll has Kamala Harris ahead by 4% over Trump. [PDF: Daily Kos - National Politics Survey - July 2024](https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_banner_book_2024_07_7knl31.pdf) Sadly there is no state specific polling in this one. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/183 "2024-08-01T14:21:37Z")
If the recent Republican bias in special election polls holds for the general, Kamala might not just win, but win in a landslide. Fingers crossed! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/184 "2024-08-01T14:52:53Z")
> **off-topic, hidden by WE?** > > Yes the article was just one report of increasing consumer confidence. > > More good news is > [Russia prisoner swap involving US journalist Evan Gershkovich under way | Russia | The Guardian](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/01/russia-prisoner-swap-evan-gershkovich-paul-whelan) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/185 "2024-08-01T15:04:47Z")
How does that relate to this thread? It doesn’t even mention Harris and all you add is “good news”. I’ll hide it for you. **Moderating:** ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/186 "2024-08-01T16:34:36Z")
Because elections are about the economy. End of story. Sci-Am had a blurb years ago that said that statistics show that voters’ perspective on the economic outlook predicts election outcomes, a good outlook favoring the party in power. In that respect, it is about Ms Harris and her chances to win (a fair election, anyway). ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/187 "2024-08-01T16:51:46Z")
I’ll make a stab at making it relevant: Putin making this deal now indicates that he doesn’t think that he’ll have the chance to “negotiate” with Trump in the future. Therefore, the Kamala campaign got an unexpected boost yesterday, from Vlad himself. I’m not the only one who thinks this, BTW: > > > Noah Rothman @NoahCRothman > > > David Frum @davidfrum ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/188 "2024-08-01T16:59:00Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Putin making this deal now indicates that he doesn’t think that he’ll have the chance to “negotiate” with Trump in the future. Putin’s intelligence predictions are probably better than 538. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/189 "2024-08-01T17:21:29Z")
FWIW CNN is on air trumpeting the role Harris had in the deal, getting cooperation from partners. On air so no link right now. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/190 "2024-08-01T17:57:18Z")
I posted this in the “Biden drops out” thread, but it really belongs here: Currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are _quite likely_ to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years. Things could (and will) change, but his model currently has Harris with a 57% chance of winning the popular vote, and a 43% chance of winning the electoral college. Other scenarios are very possible, but (as Silver mentions in a recent newsletter posting), the EC split is more likely this year than four years ago (when it almost happened), and eight years ago (when it did happen). Also, FYI: 538’s model will be released soon (I’m sure Elliot Morris has been chugging espressos in recent days) – and when it does, we’ll find out here: [Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/191 "2024-08-01T18:25:59Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Putin making this deal now indicates that he doesn’t think that he’ll have the chance to “negotiate” with Trump in the future. Vance and other Republicans are on the air today saying that it’s in fact fear of the inevitable upcoming Trump term that led Vlad to release these Americans lest he face the Donald’s wrath. 😂 ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/192 "2024-08-01T21:08:28Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are _quite likely_ to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years. IMHO- Nate Silver is No Longer a Credible Source. He sold off his company. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/193 "2024-08-01T21:35:28Z")
Not to hijack, but what does that have to do with anything? His electoral projections are based on the same algorithms that he used at 538. Speaking of Nate, the title of today’s blog post is “The Presidential Election is a Toss-Up” 🥳 ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/194 "2024-08-01T21:37:06Z")
“I’m votin’ for President Trump to get this sorry economy back on its feet,” says local man interviewed while shopping at his local jetski dealership. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/195 "2024-08-02T02:07:42Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Not to hijack, but what does that have to do with anything? His electoral projections are based on the same algorithms that he used at 538. Because someone posted that now that Silver has left 538, they are **No Longer a Credible Source** , which is BS. And sure but he no longer has a whole company gathering data and working those algorithms. He sold it- he is now just one dude. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/196 "2024-08-02T02:20:19Z")
Um, that was me. 🤨 More accurate would have been “no longer a reliably trustworthy source”. They are now using an election protection system entirely unrelated to the one they have used in the past. It may turn out to be highly accurate, or complete trash, but right now we can’t evaluate it, because the sample size is zero. The old 538 system, OTOH, was not sold and remains Nate Silver’s personal intellectual property. He no longer has a team of journalists and research assistants to write articles or help him do so, but he doesn’t need any of that to plug polling data into his model and put the results on the internet. Given his model’s consistent track record of success since 2008, I’m much more interested in hearing his opinion than that of whoever ABC has hired to run 538. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/197 "2024-08-02T02:30:19Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > They are now using an election protection system entirely unrelated to the one they have used in the past. So what? > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Given his model’s consistent track record of success since 2008, I will point out that Hillary Clinton did not win. 🙄 ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/198 "2024-08-02T02:30:30Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are _quite likely_ to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years. Though as noted in that thread, that really depends on what you think of as “likely.” For example, I’d say it would be no less than a 50% chance, and if I’m reading right, this particular number is nowhere close. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/199 "2024-08-02T02:41:14Z")
I’m going to bump the old thread to reply, rather than hijack this one. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/200 "2024-08-02T12:48:14Z")
[The Reuters Poll places Kamala Harris](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-trump-locked-tight-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-30/) 1pt ahead of Trump. Harris favorability has increased dramatically since a month ago. It went from 40% to 46%. Trump held at 41%. Sadly, once again, nothing down to the state level. [I posted the VP part in the VP thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harris-vp-choice-as-she-is-the-likely-presumptive-nominee/1004552/935). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=11)