# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/201 "2024-08-02T13:45:11Z")
For a running survey of the state polls, you could try [https://www.electoral-vote.com/](https://www.electoral-vote.com/) They keep a running total of the most recent polls, state-by-state, and produce a map of the electoral votes based on their polls. Of course, that means that the polling data for some states may lag a bit, especially for smaller states that don’t get polled very much. Unlike Nate, they don’t have a “secret sauce” where they try to weight polling results by an algorithm, and they don’t use national polls. Their focus is on making sure that the polling groups that produce polls for a state are reputable and not biased, so they exclude polls from polling groups that primarily work for either party, new groups that don’t appear to have a track record of any sort, and so on. They then use the most recent two or three polls for each state, to give a current projection for the electoral votes for each state. They are left-leaning in their commentary, but their reporting on the polls themselves seems pretty even-handed, and they have a good track record for past elections. They missed it in 2016, but then, the polls that were being produced that year also missed it. They have an unfortunate tendency to use “humorous” ethnic slurs in their commentary, so I don’t read them much, but I check their electoral vote projections now and then. As of this morning ( **August 2** ), based on the most current polls, their electoral vote tally is: **Trump: 270** **Harris: 247** By comparison, their tally on **July 21** , the date of Biden’s announcement, was: **Trump: 310** **Biden: 218** I know a few other Dopers frequent that site. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/202 "2024-08-02T14:37:38Z")
My belief is the more the news cycle is filled with anything other than Trump blathering, especially real news that reflects positively on either Harris directly or even indirectly by way of good for the Biden team, the stronger Harris becomes. Problem of course is that Fox focus is unwavering and some of the target populations only get their news there. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/203 "2024-08-02T14:49:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Problem of course is that Fox focus is unwavering and some of the target populations only get their news there. But some things - like hostages being freed from Russia - are undeniable. Didn’t Trump boast about how he would be able to get them freed, just months before? Now it happens under Biden/Harris. Even Fox won’t ignore that it happened. > [@DSeid](#): > > the more the news cycle is filled with anything other than Trump blathering, especially real news that reflects positively on either Harris directly or even indirectly by way of good for the Biden team, the stronger Harris becomes. Absolutely! The more things are consistently positive right now, with a government just humming along, the more that Harris benefits. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/204 "2024-08-02T15:03:39Z")
Trump’s citing polls to explain why he doesn’t want to debate Harris. Same old song. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/205 "2024-08-02T15:19:43Z")
I agree - I posted this in the Biden thread, but it’s relevant here, too: > [@President Biden Dropping Out of Race](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/546): > > Biden is getting a lot of praise from world leaders and from the families of the released prisoners (duh) for being deeply involved in this complicated 7 country swap. And his staff are making the point loudly about how involved he was: > > > Mr. Biden’s staff made a point of talking up his diplomatic deftness in brokering the deal, bringing together seven countries in the largest such swap since the Cold War. And they emphasized that he and his administration had helped free more than 70 Americans wrongfully detained abroad during his tenure. > > > > “This was vintage Joe Biden,” said Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser. “If you had not had Joe Biden sitting in the Oval Office, I don’t think this would have happened.” > > Harris was also involved in the negotiations, according to another article I read which detailed how/when she participated. > > Republicans are grumbling because they don’t want this big news that makes Biden and Harris look really good. They can suck it, this is excellent diplomacy with a great result. This is such a good story to have dominating the news because it positive and “feel good” and Biden and Harris were both clearly involved in making it happen. It’s a direct contrast to the “government is evil” gloom and doom the GOP is selling. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/206 "2024-08-02T15:31:17Z")
I don’t think this little episode from last week has been posted here. On July 25, Trump made a call-in to Fox , and spent the call attacking Harris. Within minutes of the call ending, the Harris campaign issued a press release: > “Statement on a 78-year-old criminal’s Fox News appearance” The press release then listed several bullet points about Trump, flagging that Trump was lying, threatening, wants to ban abortion, and other things, “Trump is old and quite weird”, and ending: “If anyone wants an alternative, Kamala Harris is offering one.” Full story, and the press release here: > **[“78-Year-Old Criminal”: Kamala Savagely Roasts Trump’s Newest Meltdown](https://newrepublic.com/post/184249/78-year-old-criminal-kamala-harris-roasts-trump-press-release)** > > Kamala Harris has issued the world’s most brutal press release in response to Donald Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/207 "2024-08-02T15:36:15Z")
That’s the kind of stuff they need to keep doing. React swiftly. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/208 "2024-08-02T15:37:29Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Within minutes of the call ending, the Harris campaign issued a press release: > > > “Statement on a 78-year-old criminal’s Fox News appearance” I really like that. Thanks for posting. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/209 "2024-08-02T16:01:27Z")
> **off-topic, please do not reply in this thread. {WE?}** > > Just to be clear, when Nate Silver left he retained the rights to his model but not the name 538. 538 now is using (because they have to) an entirely new model. No reason to give it extra credibility based on Nate’s prior work. ---
**Author:** ![dougrb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/76d3ee/32.png) [@dougrb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dougrb)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/210 "2024-08-02T16:15:47Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Even Fox won’t ignore that it happened. I don’t know how intertwined WABC radio is with Fox, but several Fox hosts (Jeanine Pirro, Brian Kilmeade) have talk shows on WABC. This morning, the non-Fox host was saying that russia went ahead with the prisoner swap deal now before Trump wins, because Trump is such a tough negotiator that they would have never got such a sweet deal as they got with the Biden administration. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/211 "2024-08-02T16:23:23Z")
Rasmussen nationwide poll has Harris +5: > ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/212 "2024-08-02T16:27:00Z")
> **Off-Topic, no more on Silver. {WE?}** > > > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > > > For a running survey of the state polls, you could try [https://www.electoral-vote.com/](https://www.electoral-vote.com/) > > > > They keep a running total of the most recent polls, state-by-state, and produce a map of the electoral votes based on their polls. Of course, that means that the polling data for some states may lag a bit, especially for smaller states that don’t get polled very much. > > > > Unlike Nate, they don’t have a “secret sauce” where they try to weight polling results by an algorithm, and they don’t use national polls. > > The biggest thing that makes Silver’s model stand out over others is that he assumes that changes in different states will be correlated. If you’re ahead in a whole bunch of swing states, but only by a small amount in each of them, there’s a significant chance that most or all of those states might turn against you at once. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/213 "2024-08-02T16:56:43Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Rasmussen nationwide poll has Harris +5 Confusingly … that’s not THE “Rasmussen poll”. There’s **[Rasmussen Reports](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_49_harris_44)** which carries on Scott Rasmussen’s namesake and still does THE “Rasmussen poll” you’ll see referenced on poll aggregators like RealClear Polling. **[Scott Rasmussen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen)** left Rasmussen Reports 11 years ago. Since then, he started the **[Rasmussen Media Group](https://www.rmgresearch.com/)** (though nothing seems to be published or released on that page – just links to follow on Twitter/X). Today, the Rasmussen Media Group’s polling is not THE “Rasmussen poll” – it is instead a competing polling service. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/214 "2024-08-02T17:01:28Z")
FWIW the Rasmussen poll has Trump ahead, but losing ground. It is notoriously GOP leaning. > **[Election 2024: Trump 49%, Harris 44%](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_49_harris_44)** > > Former President Donald Trump still leads Vice President Kamala Harris, but the margin has narrowed, especially when third-party candidates are factored into this year’s election. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/215 "2024-08-02T17:20:44Z")
I think this thread is the best choice for the following. Trump had been making modest headway specifically with younger Black men compared to Biden. Harris will hopefully improve _turnout_ of those portions of Black voters most strongly loyal parts of the coalition (especially Black women and older Black voters) but does her identity help at all with the relative loss of support among younger Black men? The reality of identity is complicated and Black voters are far from monolithic in how they view it. There was Smerconish but on the radio yesterday doing a Black barbershop focus group, mostly younger men, (worth little but interesting) from before Trump’s journalist bit that had the participants mostly saying that they aren’t sure they consider her Black. Minimally they didn’t identify much with her. Independent of her mixed heritage and white husband, her economic status may impede any automatic sense of solidarity. See this ‘21 Pew bit below. > **[The Complexities of Race and Identity](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trust/archive/fall-2022/race-and-identity)** > > A new survey from the Pew Research Center explores how Black Americans think of themselves. > [@](#): > > The survey underscored that the Black community is not monolithic and that economic status plays a role in attitudes, so participants were divided into three income categories: lower ($42,000 or less), middle ($42,000-$125,000), and upper ($125,000 or more), which correlated to 46%, 39%, and 9% of respondents, respectively. Among Black lower-income respondents, 6 in 10 say they have few things or nothing in common with Blacks who are wealthy. Should she spend much effort reaching this particular group? They tend to be relatively infrequent voters. If so, how? Identity alone is going to be insufficient. Or does she focus on increased turnout of the segments that vote more reliably and more consistently D? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/216 "2024-08-02T18:03:00Z")
OK, enough with the Nate Silver stuff. This thread is not about Nate Silver or 538. In fact if you search you will find one that is. Do not post any more on Nate Silver. **Moderating:** ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/217 "2024-08-02T22:29:05Z")
Harris has snagged David Plouffe, one of Obama’s key campaign advisors: > **['This is the A-team': Harris campaign brings on big new hires as it sprints...](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-campaign-big-new-hires-sprint-election-day-rcna164383)** > > With fewer than 100 days to the election, Harris and her aides must tackle a series of consequential moments and decisions that would typically be stretched across months. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/218 "2024-08-02T22:30:51Z")
And I think this announcement is significant: > **[Black Muslim group endorses Harris after its 'uncommitted' stance on Biden](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/muslim-group-endorses-harris-uncommitted-stance-biden-rcna164265)** > > The Black Muslim Leadership Council Fund had withheld its support for Biden over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2024, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/219 "2024-08-02T23:52:30Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Harris has snagged David Plouffe, one of Obama’s key campaign advisors: > > ['This is the A-team': Harris campaign brings on big new hires as it sprints to Election Day](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-campaign-big-new-hires-sprint-election-day-rcna164383) One of the biggest challenges Harris has is reorienting the Biden campaign apparatus to accommodate her particular political style and strategy. With less than 100 days to go, she can’t simply wholesale replace the people and structure that Biden put in place based on the campaign he was planning to run (the campaign headquarters is still in Delaware!). As she brings in her own team, it will be crucial to manage how they work with the Biden loyalists who make up the existing team. There’s a lot of ambition and fragile egos in a campaign staff. And during her primary run, she got some criticism over how she managed her campaign staff. Hoping she learned some lessons. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2024, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/220 "2024-08-03T01:40:49Z")
Today’s economic report is bad news for Harris, though. People vote with their pocketbook. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=12)