# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 111
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2224 "2024-10-31T01:51:02Z")
The thing is, Trump supporters say these things too. If you are in a bubble of likeminded people, it is really hard to tell how everyone else thinks. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2225 "2024-10-31T01:55:18Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Which brings us to the logical conclusion that the polls are wrong, because they are blatantly incompatible with observable reality. “How could Nixon have won? Nobody I know voted for him!” The polls are generally correct. Just as they were in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004… You’re talking about wishes, not reality. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2226 "2024-10-31T02:02:18Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The polls are generally correct. Just as they were in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004 The polls have been less and less accurate every year since the smartphone revolution, and in 2022 they were flat wrong. Moreover, in previous cycles we didn’t have one party overtly flooding the zone with biased polls, and even the ostensibly unbiased polls are controlled by corporations owned by pro-Trump billionaires who have demonstrated their willingness to put their thumb on the scale in order to generate the illusion of a competitive race. It’s a sunny day, 78 degrees, the humidity is low, the pressure is high, there are no clouds on the horizon or anywhere on radar, and the polls are declaring it’s gonna snow tomorrow. > [@RickJay](#): > > “How could Nixon have won? Nobody I know voted for him!” Literally the opposite of what I said. > [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > The thing is, Trump supporters say these things too. The thing is, they’re observably wrong. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2227 "2024-10-31T02:29:18Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The polls have been less and less accurate every year since the smartphone revolution No, they have not, at least not in Presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2228 "2024-10-31T02:31:50Z")
None of what you said is true. The polls are about as accurate as they always have been. They were particularly accurate in 2022. Flooding the polls is a non-factor. And there is the same amount of evidence that Trump supporters are wrong as their are Harris supporters are… ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2229 "2024-10-31T02:31:50Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > No, they have not, at least not in Presidential elections Which is why President Clinton is wrapping up her second term now, after she defeated President Romney’s reelection campaign, right? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2230 "2024-10-31T02:32:55Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > They were particularly accurate in 2022. I, too, remember how the Republicans won a 50-seat House majority that year. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2231 "2024-10-31T02:34:59Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Which is why President Clinton is wrapping up her second term now, after she defeated President Romney’s reelection campaign, right? The polls in both 2012 and 2016 were very, very close to what ended up happening. (I’m not sure where you got the idea Romney was ahead, that’s weird.) And 2020, close once again. Next week will be close, and I’ll bet on it. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2232 "2024-10-31T02:36:50Z")
Which polls said that was going to happen? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2233 "2024-10-31T02:37:44Z")
All of them. Have we forgotten the “red tsunami” so soon? ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2234 "2024-10-31T02:42:38Z")
So it should be easy to find examples? But it isn’t because the polls didn’t say that. People who ignored the polls and listened to the “vibes” predicted that. Just like you are doing now. Ignoring the polls for the narrative you like. In reality the polls were on point of what happened. > **[The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)** > > Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2235 "2024-10-31T02:46:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The polls are generally correct. Just as they were in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004… You’re talking about wishes, not reality. A powerlifter that “generally”! They “generally” are not right on the money. They “generally” are off a few. That’s pretty good. And “generally” they are off in no specific direction but “generally” they haven’t been off in the same direction more than twice in row. Generally. Close. Trump sweeping swing states. Harris sweeping swing states. All are in the general range of the current polls. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2236 "2024-10-31T02:53:55Z")
“The polls were more accurate than ever” says the guy who makes a living off of polls. You’ll forgive my skepticism. I believe the observable facts of the enthusiasm gap and the thousands of Republicans endorsing Harris more than I believe a newspaper owned by a man who engaged in quid pro quo to block an endorsement for Harris, because they asked 500 Baby Boomers who were gullible enough to answer a cold call in the year 2024 and therefore know that this is the closest presidential race ever since the last one. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2237 "2024-10-31T02:59:04Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > So it should be easy to find examples? [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com)’s final prediction for 2016; Clinton 323, Trump 215. > **[ElectoralVote](https://web.archive.org/web/20161027203651/http://www.electoral-vote.com/)** > > Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. 2020: Biden 368, Trump 170. > **[ElectoralVote](https://web.archive.org/web/20201102230646/https://electoral-vote.com/)** > > Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2238 "2024-10-31T03:01:37Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Christopher Bouzy’s final Electoral College prediction comes out this evening … Now, I know Bouzy weighs and scores his inputs far differently than more famous aggregators like FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, and the NYT’s Nate Cohn. Still, I’m interested to see another “minority report” among the wide swath of prognosticators. [**Voila** :](https://spoutible.com/thread/37417986) [![](https://media.spoutible.com/upload/images/2024/10/zNosjoRUGCy9t6Opm9Bz_30_8a21b84bfd639c9da748e2b7b0500770_image_original.jpg) ](https://media.spoutible.com/upload/images/2024/10/zNosjoRUGCy9t6Opm9Bz_30_8a21b84bfd639c9da748e2b7b0500770_image_original.jpg) > **[STATE OF THE ELECTORATE EP 6](https://spoutible.com/pod/67201ca6336cc596adffc2a3)** > > Christopher Bouzy reveals his final maps. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2239 "2024-10-31T03:06:54Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > You’ll forgive my skepticism. I won’t, actually. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2240 "2024-10-31T03:16:51Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > “The polls were more accurate than ever” says the guy who makes a living off of polls. You’ll forgive my skepticism. There’s a difference between skepticism and willful ignorance. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2241 "2024-10-31T03:24:19Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > [**Voila** :](https://spoutible.com/thread/37417986) _{“Wow… I’m sexually aroused, Commander” – Lt Daniel Kaffee}_ Not to take away from the “is polling broken” conversation, but can you let us know, is there any reason why we should trust this Bouzy guy over any of the other prognosticators that have it “too close to call”? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2242 "2024-10-31T03:27:50Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > There’s a difference between skepticism and willful ignorance. “Willful ignorance” is clinging to obsolete pseudoscience when every observable fact says otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/2243 "2024-10-31T03:28:22Z")
Moderating: Please take the polling discussion to a more on-topic thread. It’s been more than enough in this one. Thanks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=110) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=112)