# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/441 "2024-08-12T15:49:24Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > To be successful, a pander must be very important to a specific subsection of the electorate but not alienating to the rest of the electorate. That’s what I’m a bit worried about - that not taxing tips will be alienating to the people who have to pay taxes on all of their income, including those who earn less total than the people who will not be legally required to pay taxes on tips. Hopefully, since both candidates are in favor if it , it won’t make much difference to the election. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/442 "2024-08-12T15:57:42Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > “You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose.” --Mario Cuomo To a point. That list carefully planned out (starting apparently in 2022 and originally meant for 2028) is definitely prose. And it shows she can and does think relatively long-term. (Six years counts as very long-term in USA politics, unfortunately.) ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/443 "2024-08-12T16:08:57Z")
Republican pollster, Tim Miller, on the Bulwark explained that Harris’ gains have for most part not come at Trumps loss. Trump has been holding steady at 44% approval both before and after Biden dropped out. The biggest thing he argues that has changed is among the ‘double hater’ voters; ones who disliked both Trump and Biden. Polling from the last three weeks is showing that Harris has been hoovering up almost all of the folks in swing states and elsewhere that had serious doubts about both Biden and Trump as candidates, and this more than any other single factor has put her on top and is very unlikely to change over the next 90-some days. [BREAKING: NEW Poll Shows Harris CRUSHING Trump in KEY Swing States! | Tim Take (youtube.com)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0jhzA6nrtY) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/444 "2024-08-12T16:31:45Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Harris is on the TIME cover, and there’s some interesting info in the article about how she tied up the nomination so quickly; not a Dem-media conspiracy, but old-fashioned retail politics: Sounds positively Biden-esque! Biden, of course, as a senator (and to some extent VP, and occasionally as prez) was well known for a similar skill set. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/445 "2024-08-12T16:34:24Z")
What I would be worried about, if I were an employee whose income came largely from tips, is customers starting to tip less since they know that tip money will not be taxed. You might have people normally tipping 18% who scale it down to 15%, since they figure the recipient will come out ahead on the bargain. And, given the innumeracy of the average American, might not realize that puts an effective tax rate of 16 2/3% on those tips, which is probably much more than the worker would pay on them. (Unless payroll taxes are paid on tip money - does anyone know if that is the case?) I am a bit worried about Nevada’s electoral votes being so important that both candidates are trying this pander, but at least it would have to go through Congress rather than happen by executive fiat. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/446 "2024-08-12T16:37:47Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > Unless payroll taxes are paid on tip money - does anyone know if that is the case? They are - at least on the tips reported to the employer. That’s why some get paychecks for almost nothing - payroll taxes on their tips come to less than their direct wages. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/447 "2024-08-12T17:16:46Z")
There is also an income item called “[Allocated Tips](https://www.patriotsoftware.com/blog/payroll/what-are-allocated-tips/)” which is filled in when the total reported tips for a pay period fall short of what the employer’s Ouija board says they should be (according to the linked article, currently 8% of gross sales). The employee is taxed on wages + reported tips + allocated tips. It was a perennial annoyance to my ex-wife — who reported her tips accurately —when she got allocated tips because other employees underreported, ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/448 "2024-08-12T19:01:11Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > What I would be worried about, if I were an employee whose income came largely from tips, is customers starting to tip less since they know that tip money will not be taxed. Your average person knows so little about taxes they could not fill out a simple tax return. Back in the day when they had a 1040EZ, tax preparers did a solid business in preparing them and charging some modest fee. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/449 "2024-08-12T19:58:52Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > What I would be worried about, if I were an employee whose income came largely from tips, is customers starting to tip less since they know that tip money will not be taxed. I already assume that much of my tip money may not be taxed. I’ve worked two tipped jobs maybe thirty years ago, and what people made in tips and what was reported was usually quite a ways from each other. > [@](#): > > Does the IRS Go After Waitresses for Their Cash Tips? > By Russell Huebsch > Updated July 27, 2017 > Waiters and waitresses under report their tips by 84 percent, according to the Internal Revenue Service From: > **[Is it tax evasion?](https://www.thelaw.com/threads/is-it-tax-evasion.82318/)** > > Just curious, if I were a waitress and I don’t report all my tips (main income) is that tax evasion? If so, what potential penalties could I face? I wouldn’t recommend doing it, but it was extremely common, in my couple years of experience. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/450 "2024-08-12T20:02:13Z")
FYI, I started [a thread in GD](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-effectively-eliminate-taxing-tips/1005585/28) asking how one might effectively tax tips. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/451 "2024-08-12T20:27:26Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > > [@Akaj](#): > > > > Is this legit? Does anyone have experience with something like this? It completely matches my skillset. > > > > I’d share a link but I’m wary of clicking it. > > Do you trust the entity inviting you? > > Discord is a standard communication platform. It supports both chat and audio/video. It was originally designed for gamers, and like many other online platforms, it took off during the pandemic. I am a member of about two dozen discord servers, some i visit regularly, and some i barely touch. Just to back this up, I’m a member of multiple Discord servers as well. And I’ve also joined servers briefly before deciding they weren’t useful to me, and I left those servers, with no consequence. I didn’t suddenly start getting spam or anything. It’s probably worth checking out if it sounds interesting, and if it’s not what you expected, then if you leave it you never have to give it another thought. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/452 "2024-08-13T15:40:14Z")
[Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling) has {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris +3}} in their latest poll. Not sure what Big Village is, but also ahead 3 to 4 percent. * * * * * * No fresh **Georgia** or **Nevada** Polls I can find. **North Carolina** is even in the [The Carolina Forward for August 12th](https://carolinaforward.org/blog/august-2024-poll/). Helping Harris is {\color{blue}\mathbf{Josh Stein}} has pulled way ahead of Mark Robinson for Governor. **Arizona** seems to be leaning {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris,}} most recent poll on the 8th though. **Pennsylvania** has the 2 most recent polls with {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris}} ahead 4% and 2%. The Trafalgar one has Trump up by 2% but was 5 days ago. All recent polls of **Michigan** have {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris}} ahead by up to 6%. **Wisconsin** is strongly blue now. {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris}} is up by 9% instead of 1-3%. * * * * * * Only recent poll of **Florida** has Trump up by 5% which is at least lower than it was. **Ohio** is still overwhelmingly for Trump. Around 10%. No real change. * * * * * * I think that covers all the states thought to be in play. Right now things are looking good and **North Carolina** would be a nice pickup. With Biden running it was pretty solid for Trump. Moving it to even is a great sign. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/453 "2024-08-13T15:44:12Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > **Wisconsin** is strongly blue now. {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris}} is up by 9% instead of 1-3% This number is way outperforming the rest of Harris’ improvement in the polls. Is this down to having a Minnesotan on the ticket? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/454 "2024-08-13T15:53:46Z")
The simplest explanation is a polling outlier. ---
**Author:** ![Pork\_Rind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pork_rind/32/111_2.png) [@Pork\_Rind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pork_Rind)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/455 "2024-08-13T15:54:47Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > Is this down to having a Minnesotan on the ticket? That would be my strong first guess. Never underestimate the power of a hotdish recipe that includes tater tots and beer would be a second. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/456 "2024-08-13T15:55:06Z")
Could be, not a lot of polling though to determine that. Going back to the 3rd the Redfield & Wilton Strategies had it tied, then RMG research was +3 on the 5th. Post Walz announcement did see a nice jump. But 4 different polls, so can’t be sure. * * * > [@TroutMan](#): > > The simplest explanation is a polling outlier. Actually looking at 4 polls over the last 2 weeks, the margin kept growing and quickly, with the bigger jump after adding Walz. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/457 "2024-08-13T17:10:41Z")
5 posts were merged into an existing topic: [Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/2) ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/464 "2024-08-13T18:30:07Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > I am a bit worried about Nevada’s electoral votes being so important that both candidates are trying this pander, but at least it would have to go through Congress rather than happen by executive fiat. I hate the pander because it’s a terrible idea. Which for Trump is business as usual and for Harris sounds like one of her terrible ideas from 2019 where the proposal made no sense, like some student loan forgiveness for people that “have to be 1)[a Pell Grant Recipient](https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/types/grants-scholarships/pell) who 2) starts a business in a disadvantaged community and 3) manages to keep that business afloat for at least three years.” [Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has a student debt forgiveness plan...but it's complicated](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/kamala-harris-has-student-debt-forgiveness-plan-but-its-complicated.html) ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/465 "2024-08-13T18:33:34Z")
Per @Northern_Piper’s post a ways above, I give another good, quick response by Harris (to Musk’s “interview” of Trump): > Their social media game is quite good. Particularly that last sentence. ---
**Author:** ![Pork\_Rind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pork_rind/32/111_2.png) [@Pork\_Rind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pork_Rind)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/466 "2024-08-13T18:42:23Z")
> who cannot run a livestream in the year 2024. Get a full drum of burn cream to Elon, stat! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=24)