# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/467 "2024-08-13T19:02:22Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > I give another good, quick response by Harris (to Musk’s “interview” of Trump) Can’t see a thing but a big box demanding that I sign in. This seems to be intermittent with X these days, but it still happens. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/468 "2024-08-13T19:32:51Z")
Harris now is up to 56.0% chance of winning the electoral college in Nate Silver’s model. It keeps getting better and better. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/469 "2024-08-13T19:37:43Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > All recent polls of **Michigan** have {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris}} Please, Lord! I will be so embarrassed if Michigan, my state, goes for Trump again. We JUST re-elected a Democrat governor by a wide margin. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/470 "2024-08-13T20:50:10Z")
Sorry. I was under the impression the “onebox” would show you a summary of the Tweet. Here you go: [![](https://i.imgur.com/DZiQ8ba.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/DZiQ8ba.png) ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/471 "2024-08-13T20:51:15Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Sorry. I was under the impression the “onebox” would show you a summary of the Tweet. Here you go Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/472 "2024-08-13T22:19:14Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Harris now is up to 56.0% chance of winning the electoral college in Nate Silver’s model. It keeps getting better and better. Where can you find Nate Silvers model? It looks like [538.com](http://538.com) hasn’t been updated since Biden dropped out. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/473 "2024-08-13T22:28:43Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Where can you find Nate Silvers model? It looks like [538.com](http://538.com) hasn’t been updated since Biden dropped out. Note that, just in case you were not aware, Silver is no longer associated with 538. He had sold it to Disney’s ESPN division back in 2013 (but continued providing content for it), but when Disney had a round of layoffs in 2023, Silver’s contract with them was not renewed. Hence, 538 is now operating under ABC News (another Disney division), while Silver has started his own blog, [Silver Bulletin](https://www.natesilver.net/), on Substack. Unfortunately, to actually see Silver’s prediction model, you have to have a paid subscription with him. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/474 "2024-08-13T22:41:56Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Note that, just in case you were not aware, Silver is no longer associated with 538. He had sold it to Disney’s ESPN division back in 2013 (but continued providing content for it), but when Disney had a round of layoffs in 2023, Silver’s contract with them was not renewed. > > Hence, 538 is now operating under ABC News (another Disney division), while Silver has started his own blog, [Silver Bulletin](https://www.natesilver.net/), on Substack. Unfortunately, to actually see Silver’s prediction model, you have to have a paid subscription with him. Correct. I have an paid account with Nate ($10/month) and will keep it through the election and provide updates. Sometimes he will provide the results on X for everyone to see. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/475 "2024-08-13T22:55:40Z")
Hmmm. My quadrennial obsession since 2016 has been doom-scrolling 538 every day. I guess I’ll need to find a new hobby (or pony up the $10/mo). ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/476 "2024-08-13T23:58:50Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Sometimes he will provide the results on X for everyone to see. Half the time I can’t see anything on X. (Well, other than the huge sign-in box.) It comes and goes. Guess I might as well take 538 off my favorites list. And I can’t afford to pay everybody; or even very many anybodies. But it’s not as if my vote were going to be decided by anybody’s polling. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/477 "2024-08-14T04:30:45Z")
> [@Pork\_Rind](#): > > That would be my strong first guess. Never underestimate the power of a hotdish recipe that includes tater tots and beer would be a second Best post::username ever. ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/478 "2024-08-14T04:59:21Z")
Does anybody have polling results from Virginia? Trump had just about pulled even here before Biden dropped out. I think it is a mistake to assume it will go blue for both the President and Senate. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/479 "2024-08-14T13:07:13Z")
Good question – well, the president part, anyway (there’s no danger of Kaine losing the Senate race). It’s reasonable to assume that VA has shifted toward Harris along with most of the rest of the country, but it would be good to know just how much. Surely there will be a well-run state poll there in the next month. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/480 "2024-08-14T13:08:14Z")
Nate Silver has Harris with a 83% chance of wining VA. She has surged there. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/481 "2024-08-14T13:13:26Z")
Well, Nate “use national polls to make inferences about state polls.” This is reasonable and tends to work pretty well, but still, it would be good to have some direct state polling in purplish states beyond the big six. ETA – WhatExit, there’s your answer. Silver has no new Virginia-specific data – there isn’t any. It’s just mathematical correlations at this point. Nothing wrong with that, but at some point direct data is helpful. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/482 "2024-08-14T13:13:37Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Nate Silver has Harris with a 83% chance of wining VA. Weird, I wonder what polling data he has. Harris was up by 5 on July 12th, but I haven’t found a poll since then. I would expect it to be higher right now, but expect and reality are often different. ETA: Got it. Yes we need more real polls. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/483 "2024-08-14T15:10:57Z")
Cook Political polls just released: > > **[The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President](https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/fight-redefine-2024-race-president)** > > A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a... ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/484 "2024-08-14T15:20:31Z")
Yup. Like I said almost a week ago, Nevada is looking disappointing for Harris, while North Carolina is looking surprisingly rosy, perhaps to the point where the latter has supplanted the former as the third “second tier” state (with Georgia and Arizona). ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/485 "2024-08-14T15:22:50Z")
I follow [electoral-vote.com](https://www.electoral-vote.com/), which has a nice plot “Electoral College 2024 Excluding States Where the Candidates are Statistically Tied”: [![](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/ec_graph-2024-solid.png) ](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/ec_graph-2024-solid.png) Harris has a slight edge, but neither candidate has enough statistically significant electoral votes to win. Notably however, there are now more states statistically tied than when Biden was leading the ticket. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/486 "2024-08-14T15:43:45Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Yup. Like I said almost a week ago, Nevada is looking disappointing for Harris, while North Carolina is looking surprisingly rosy … Flipping NC and ceding NV would be a +10 in the Electoral College. If Nevada has to turn red, North Carolina turning blue would certainly cushion the blow. Not based on anything firm … but I don’t think the book on Nevada is closed yet. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=25)