# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![John\_Bredin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@John\_Bredin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Bredin)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/487 "2024-08-14T16:15:05Z")
As I recall, a real loonie is running on the GOP/MAGA ticket for North Carolina governor, to the point I sent the Dem candidate some money alongside my usual key-senate-race contributions. Maybe there’s a coat-tail (reverse coat-tail?) thing where sane moderate people plan to turn out to oppose the crazy gubernatorial candidate and oppose the crazy presidential candidate while voting anyway. 🙂 Which reminds me, there are referenda to protect abortion rights in seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, and South Dakota. [Link.](https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/ballot-tracker-status-of-abortion-related-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/) [Link.](https://ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measures) Judging from past elections, hopefully these pass on their own accord but also increase voter turnout for the elections on the same ballots. Edited to actually say North Carolina when I mean North Carolina (thanks, **flurb**!). 🙃 ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/488 "2024-08-14T16:21:27Z")
> [@John\_Bredin](#): > > As I recall, a real loonie is running on the GOP/MAGA ticket for South Carolina governor, North Carolina. South Carolina does not have a governor’s race this year. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/489 "2024-08-14T16:39:53Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Not based on anything firm … but I don’t think the book on Nevada is closed yet. My in-laws who can’t stand Trump moved to Nevada. Surely that will help! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/490 "2024-08-14T17:08:56Z")
A post was merged into an existing topic: [Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/19) Let’s keep deep dive polling stuff in the Polling thread I moved this post to. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/491 "2024-08-14T19:50:39Z")
.nvm. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/492 "2024-08-14T20:13:32Z")
For those who are interested, Harris’s latest good polls has her up to a 56.7% in Silver’s model. State by (swing) state break down: NV: Harris 53.7% chance of winning AZ: Trump 51.6% WI: Harris 63.8% MI: Harris 66.5% PA: Harris 59.1% GA: Trump 55.4% NC: Trump 60.7% ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/493 "2024-08-14T20:55:31Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > My in-laws who can’t stand Trump moved to Nevada. Surely that will help! Northern Nevada is being flooded with Californians….including myself. Don’t be surprised if Nevada gets more and more blue. ---
**Author:** ![Tride](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tride/32/13907_2.png) [@Tride](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tride)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/494 "2024-08-14T21:41:19Z")
And Montana. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/495 "2024-08-15T02:28:56Z")
I see that Arizona and Missouri have abortion rights on the ballot. I’ve mentioned before that this is also in Florida, and I expect it to drive out voters who will support Harris. (By contrast, I recall when opposition to gay marriage was a big boon to Republican votes in 2004) > **[Arizona and Missouri join states with abortion amendments on the ballot. What...](https://apnews.com/article/abortion-election-2024-roe-ballot-4403190b898e501b0834053c3417d072)** > > Voters in Arizona and Missouri and at least five other states will decide referendums on abortion rights this year, with potentially more to come. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/496 "2024-08-15T02:54:24Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > I see that Arizona and Missouri have abortion rights on the ballot. I’ve mentioned before that this is also in Florida, and I expect it to drive out voters who will support Harris. Yep, one reason i think Florida is in play. Mind you, I will be surprised if Harris wins it, but not shocked. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/497 "2024-08-15T05:29:50Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > I expect it to drive out voters who will support Harris. I assume you meant that it will “bring” them out, it almost sounds like you think they’ll flee the state. 🙂 (I’m sure that’s what you meant.) ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/498 "2024-08-15T10:03:08Z")
A lot of cash from crypto businesses is being given to Democratic candidates, and Kamala Harris’ campaign is trying to make friends with the crypto bosses. I don’t care for crypto (though admittedly I don’t understand it either) so this is understandable if disappointing. > **[Republicans claim betrayal as cryptocurrency PAC backs Democrats](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-claim-betrayal-cryptocurrency-pac-backs-democrats-rcna166470)** > > The large crypto PAC is supporting Democrats in Arizona and Michigan. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/499 "2024-08-15T10:48:52Z")
Crypto is like Icelandic millionaires before the financial crisis. One of them owned a dog he said was worth 10 million. Another one also owned a dog and at that point said it too was worth 10 million. They switched dogs. Now both are definitely millionaires. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/500 "2024-08-15T13:09:56Z")
> [@How can Donald Trump win at this point?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/647): > > I just ran some EC numbers. If Harris loses Pennsylvania (and Nevada), but wins MI and WI, she’ll need two of the three next-tier states (AZ, NC, and GA) to win. (I assumed she’d win one of the two purple NE/ME districts). Of these three states, she’s currently forecast to just win Arizona — barely (she could easily lose it). If she just wins AZ, Trump wins, 276-262. Same if she just wins Georgia, or just wins North Carolina (Trump wins 271-267 in each case). The upshot is…Harris could very… ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/501 "2024-08-15T15:21:54Z")
Nate Silver has hammered the point that PA is key. That’s why he thought that Shapiro should have been the VP choice. Even a couple more points chance of getting PA would be overwhelmingly helpful. According to his model, Harris wins 93% of the time if she wins PA, Trump 95% of the time. It’s the state that tips the election 38% of the time. MI and WI are next with 12% and 11% respectively. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/502 "2024-08-15T15:26:33Z")
2 polls just published showing **Harris +5.** > **[Harris Leaps Ahead of Trump – ActiVote](https://www.activote.net/harris-leaps-ahead-of-trump/)** > **[August 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46% - Emerson Polling](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-46/)** > > Independents, Younger Voters Swing Toward Harris The first Emerson College Polling national survey following President…Full Release & Results * * * * * * Latest **Florida** Poll shows **Trump** only up by +2, that is closer than I expected. That is with Kennedy in the race. > **[August 14 2024 Poll – FAU PolCom Lab](https://www.faupolling.com/august142024/)** ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/503 "2024-08-15T16:25:08Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > According to his model, Harris wins 93% of the time if she wins PA, Trump 95% of the time. Thanks – yup. I assume you meant “Trump wins [the EC] in 95% of the model runs in which he wins PA”? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/504 "2024-08-15T16:28:18Z")
Yes. There are “better” states for Harris. She wins like 99.6% of the time if she wins FL but that’s probably out of reach. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/505 "2024-08-15T16:34:00Z")
These percentages overstate the importance of PA, as demonstrated by the percentage if she wins FL. Not to say PA isn’t important, but it doesn’t mean, for example, focus all the attention on PA at the expense of other states (which is what a Shapiro pick risked doing). The reason the % is so high is because of correlation between the states. If she wins PA in the model, it’s because she is doing well in other states as well. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/506 "2024-08-15T16:34:30Z")
It may not be, which is a surprise. Florida might be in play. This [politico article](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2024/08/13/could-harris-momentum-put-florida-in-play-00132333) was written with the margin still at 5%. The gap might be closing: > **[Florida : President: general election : 2024 Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=26)