# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 32
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/627 "2024-08-22T22:23:28Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Weird you chose not to quote that. Yes I suppose it is. My bad. I will wait with baited breath. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/628 "2024-08-23T01:39:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > But in 2016 I really didn’t think it was possible Trump would win. Now I do. I think that will mitigate some of the horror if it passes. Yep. I have guarded optimism about Harris, ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/629 "2024-08-23T02:58:18Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > New poll showing Harris up by 6% overall with RFK in and 4% with him out. > [The Presidential Race Remains Stable; Harris +6 — Outward Intelligence](https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/presidential-race-remains-stable) > > No state details sadly. **[Bullfinch’s newest poll](https://www.thebullfinchgroup.com/post/public-release-of-bullfinch-q3-nationwide-survey-2)** (scroll down for PDF link) has Harris at **+8** over Trump among registered voters nationwide. No state-specific crosstabs, though. The data was collected Mon-Wed of this week, so I’m assuming some convention bounce. But still. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/630 "2024-08-23T09:45:57Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > I will wait with baited breath. \*bated. Unless you’ve been eating worms. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/631 "2024-08-23T10:09:18Z")
I realize there’s no real way to know, but I wonder how much of a plus and minus it’s been that Harris has been under the radar for the past 4 years? On the one hand, she isn’t tied to Joe’s unpopular decisions or mistakes, and on the other she can take credit for his successes. It’s a delicate dance, but it also means people have to be educated about her very quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/632 "2024-08-23T10:23:15Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > \*bated. Unless you’ve been eating worms. Good point. I figured I had a 50-50 chance with guessing. 🤠 ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/633 "2024-08-23T12:28:23Z")
We’ve got a Penn Poll. 51.1% Harris to 48.9% Trump. > **[Harris has Narrow Lead in Key(stone) Swing State Pennsylvania – ActiVote](https://www.activote.net/harris-has-narrow-lead-in-keystone-swing-state-pennsylvania/)** Collected: **August 5, 2024** and **August 22, 2024** A lot of breakdowns on this one. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/634 "2024-08-23T12:31:08Z")
Most interesting lines to me: > [@](#): > > Harris has a lead among rural voters. > … > Trump leads among those with some college, while Harris leads among those with the lowest education level. If Harris is making serious inroads in rural areas, that’s pretty significant–as is her making inroads with folks with less formal education. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/635 "2024-08-23T12:43:07Z")
But disappointed how it was 50-50 with those with degrees. I would have expected better numbers there. The rural number was a pleasant surprise for me too. > [@bordelond](#): > > **[Bullfinch’s newest poll](https://www.thebullfinchgroup.com/post/public-release-of-bullfinch-q3-nationwide-survey-2)** (scroll down for PDF link) has Harris at **+8** over Trump among registered voters nationwide. No state-specific crosstabs, though. The Bullfinch National poll is pretty hopeful. This is the key question: _**BF3. If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were: (RANDOMIZE 1-6)**_ | (A) | (RV) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 44% | 47% | Democrat Kamala Harris | | 39% | 39% | Republican Donald Trump | | 5% | 5% | Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | | 1% | 1% | Independent Cornel West | | 1% | 1% | Green Party Jill Stein | | 1% | 1% | Libertarian Chase Oliver | | 9% | 6% | Unsure | * * * ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/636 "2024-08-23T12:45:19Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > But disappointed how it was 50-50 with those with degrees. I would have expected better numbers there. Yeah, that’s pretty interesting, and goes along with Trump’s lead in suburban areas. I wonder if there are a lot of folks with degrees who pay vague attention to the news, blame Biden for inflation, and kind of end their economic analysis at that point. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/637 "2024-08-23T15:15:10Z")
Or we are over reading from small subgroup sample sizes. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/638 "2024-08-23T15:18:31Z")
Noice! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/639 "2024-08-23T16:56:33Z")
Finally, 538’s Harris-Trump forecast model is up and running: > **[How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works](https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-2024-presidential-election-forecast-works/story?id=113068753)** > > The methodology of how 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model works. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/640 "2024-08-23T16:59:14Z")
That was a deep-dive explanation of the model. Here’s the model’s current status – the page you’ll want to bookmark, and doom-check every hour, day and night, for thenext seventy days 😉 > **[Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)** > > 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/641 "2024-08-23T17:02:05Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Finally, 538’s Harris-Trump forecast model is up and running: ooh interesting. The polls-only outlook (D+3.9) is better than the fundamentals-only outlook (D+2.8). This is opposite of the model for Biden right before it came down, where the Biden’s chances being near 50-50 were based mostly on (likely over-rosy) fundamentals not polls. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/642 "2024-08-23T17:02:56Z")
So it looks like they’re saying right now Harris is 58% likely to win, to Trumps 41% chance. > **[Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)** > > 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/643 "2024-08-23T17:14:08Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Finally, 538’s Harris-Trump forecast model is up and running If you scroll down to the “ **How has the forecast changed over time?** ” section, it appears that Morris has actually been running some kind of model (a preliminary one?) since July 26th. You can trace his graphic to see that he had Trump ahead in the electoral count until August 7th, after which Harris has remained in the lead. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/644 "2024-08-23T17:21:25Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > That was a deep-dive explanation of the model. Here’s the model’s current status – the page you’ll want to bookmark, and doom-check every hour, day and night, for thenext seventy days 😉 I like seeing Texas and Florida in the Lean R category, with Harris having about a 1 in 3 chance in Florida and a 1 in 4 chance in Texas. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/645 "2024-08-23T17:23:00Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > it appears that Morris has actually been running some kind of model (a preliminary one?) since July 26th. It’s also common/straightforward in stats to back-calculate to the same effect, by calculating (now) what the numbers would have been when using only data before any given date. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2024, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/646 "2024-08-23T17:30:46Z")
And this just reinforces how important getting out the voters will prove to be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=31) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=33)