# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/707 "2024-08-26T16:10:00Z")
Noted. And also observed that ActiVote’s aggregate tracker is consistently staying at that +5 that it settled at for a bit now. Bump, of whatever size, to come. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/708 "2024-08-26T17:01:53Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > . I don’t think it is too crazy to use that 2.6% difference as a current stand in estimate for the electoral college GOP advantage correction factor when reading individual national polls. Not crazy at all! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/709 "2024-08-26T17:09:45Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Poll won’t reflect the bump yet, the time period is too early overall. > > Later in the week we’ll probably see polls that reflect the bump. True. But it will be modest, partly thanks to RFK’s dropping out and endorsing you-know-who (but not only because of that — its effects are quite small). ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/710 "2024-08-26T18:15:38Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > > [@DSeid](#): > > > > I would not be surprised if Harris is hoping to get a chance to do her “I am speaking now.” thing, and show, not tell, how she stands up to bullies and is strong. > > This makes the most sense to me. It makes sense by itself. But the effect will be weakened (if Harris gets her way) because well informed voters will know that it was only possible because Harris got the rules changed. No biggie, but I personally think that gamesmanship like this looks bad. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/711 "2024-08-26T18:30:16Z")
That’s ridiculous. If Trump starts shouting the n-word at her when it’s her turn, no one is going to say, “well, she did insist the mics were hot.” Well, maybe Sean Hannity will. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/712 "2024-08-26T18:37:13Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > well informed voters will know Well informed voters are already voting for her and won’t care about nitpicking. It’s the uninformed voters that she needs to grab the attention of. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/713 "2024-08-26T20:15:57Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I’m very surprised that Harris wants the mics on when it’s not the candidates’ turns. First, that seems like a poor format: it encourages interruptions. Second, the worry before was that Trump would just talk all over the Dem candidate. Third, it’s what was agreed to. Same here- weird. [https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/26/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate-abc-microphones-00176294](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/26/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate-abc-microphones-00176294) ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/714 "2024-08-26T20:17:25Z")
I honestly think the Harris campaign is mostly just trolling him with this, gleefully keeping him off balance and out of his rhythm. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/715 "2024-08-26T20:42:15Z")
Trump just said he’d prefer the mics were left on. “We agreed to the same rules, I don’t know, doesn’t matter to me, I’d rather have it probably on, but the agreement was that it would be the same as it was last time. " This would be entirely anticipated by the Harris campaign, and lends credence to your theory that they are trolling him. Keep putting him at odds with his advisors. ---
**Author:** ![Jihi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jihi/32/17768_2.png) [@Jihi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jihi)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/716 "2024-08-26T20:45:36Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Keep putting him at odds with his advisors. I’ve been thinking about this today. And I think you may have just hit on exactly what Harris’s campaign is thinking right now. This is a pure troll move. I have no doubt they know exactly what they’re doing. I don’t think she would say this publicly, but my guess is that she has zero doubts that she could handle Trump in a setting where the mics are always on. This is about keeping Trump off balance because they know, meaning Harris’s campaign, that Trump and his own advisors are at odds right now over how he’s conducting himself publicly. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/717 "2024-08-26T22:23:48Z")
Shall we gamble on how many times she says to him, “_keep digging_” ? ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/718 "2024-08-27T00:06:46Z")
| Column 1 | Column 2 | | --- | --- | | Popular vote | Harris Electoral win probability | | R +0 to +1 | 3.10% | | D +0 to +1 | 11.40% | | D +1 to +2 | 34.90% | | D +2 to +3 | 65.00% | | D +3 to +4 | 87.80% | | D +4 to +5 | 96.60% | | D +5 to +6 | 99.20% | | D +6 to +7 | 99.80% | This came from Nate Silver’s paid section, and I thought it was an interesting depiction of the “Electoral College bias”. Basically she has to have _at least_ a two-percentage-point victory in the popular vote, to even have a \>= 65% chance of the electoral win. I knew there was a “bias” that’s always existed, but seeing it laid out like this I thought was interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/719 "2024-08-27T00:31:14Z")
Having seen that, my first thought was to check by how much Clinton won the popular vote in 2016: just 1.9% according to the Wikipedia article on the election. > **[2016 United States presidential election](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election)** > > Barack Obama > Democratic > Donald Trump > Republican > The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket, businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former secretary of state and First Lady of the United States Hillary Clinton and the junior senator from Virginia, Tim Kaine, in what was considered one of the biggest political upsets in American history... I’m hopeful that 3+% is achievable with money, tactical campaigning and the quality of the candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/720 "2024-08-27T01:01:25Z")
> [@Jihi](#): > > I don’t think she would say this publicly, but my guess is that she has zero doubts that she could handle Trump in a setting where the mics are always on. Agreed. I saw one of her campaign surrogates interviewed, and he said (paraphrasing) that they don’t think that Trump can act presidential if he’s unfiltered, and the American people deserve to see how he acts. I think that Harris is confident in her ability to withstand any Trump insults, and probably figures that it will assist her image as a tough and formidable person (thereby undermining all the negative media criticizing her laugh, and trying to claim that she’s not serious). I also think that the campaign is sincere when they state that Trump’s behavior is expected to turn voters off. That’s my opinion as to why they want the microphones on. If it also exacerbates a rift between Trump and his team, that’s just a bonus. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/721 "2024-08-27T01:12:24Z")
I think the mics being on are a real risk to Harris too. It’s tough to look presidential when someone is interrupting you constantly. So she says something wilting like “let’s act like adults” or “wait your turn, I’m speaking.” And he just keeps talking over her, and it becomes an absolute mess. Yes, if you’re really paying attention, you know who caused it and who’s the adult in the room. But many people will just think politics sucks overall, they’re all the same, there’s no sense in voting. And I think those who tune out are more likely to be Harris voters if they did bother. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/722 "2024-08-27T02:08:19Z")
> [@Ferris](#): > > Having seen that, my first thought was to check by how much Clinton won the popular vote in 2016: just 1.9% according to the Wikipedia article on the election. Actually, the real math is 2.2% – i.e., the percentage difference for the total votes the two of them received, because the others really do not count. Four years ago, Joe the President got 4.6% by the same math. I suspect that Ms Harris will pull between 3 and 4. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/723 "2024-08-27T02:22:32Z")
But that risk will still be there to some degree for Harris with the mics on or off. Since they are on the same stage a few feet apart she will still be able to hear his blithering and possibly be distracted by it. He won’t shut up just because the mics are off. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/724 "2024-08-27T02:34:06Z")
Yup. Consistent with the estimate above comparing national with PA’s ( likely tipping point) of 2.6% as the EC advantage estimate right now. Note though that it is not written in stone, even though it will likely be written in Keystone (state) … PA might move more D or R ward relative to overall national numbers yet. ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/725 "2024-08-27T02:54:26Z")
Thanks, and no argument from me about the calculations or the prediction. The message seems to be that the ‘EC advantage’ is real but definitely not insurmountable. And that D+4 means that we’re keeping up nicely, not streets ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2024, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/726 "2024-08-27T02:56:57Z")
> [@Ferris](#): > > And that D+4 means that we’re keeping up nicely, not streets ahead. Depends on which D+4 entry applies to now. It’s kind of a big jump between the two. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=37)