# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 46
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/907 "2024-09-04T12:38:14Z")
I think it’s more they think Berkeley (equals far left) shorthand is scarier than Oakland (equals Black which she only recently decided to be …) is. Which face it, is why she emphasizes Oakland over Berkeley. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/908 "2024-09-04T12:41:30Z")
I like that one, or perhaps “I’m ‘Kamala’ to my friends. You can call me Vice President Harris.” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/909 "2024-09-04T18:24:11Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Harris has a 53.2% chance of winning > > NV: Harris 51.1% chance of winning > AZ: Trump 52.2% > WI: Harris 61.5% > MI: Harris 63.7% > PA: Harris 53.3% > GA: Trump 61.7% > NC: Trump 60.2% August 26th above and things continue to look worse and worse. Harris has a 41.6% chance of winning the EC in Silver’s model now, the lowest since July 30th. NV: Trump 57.6% chance of winning AZ: Trump 70.1% WI: Harris 52.9% MI: Trump 50.3% PA: Trump 58.1% GA: Trump 63.8% NC: Trump 70.9% The post convention bounce is giving a bit of headwind to the topline number but not the state by state predictions. We are fucked. She will make him look foolish in the debate and it won’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/910 "2024-09-04T18:55:03Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > The post convention bounce is giving a bit of headwind to the topline number but not the state by state predictions. We are fucked. She will make him look foolish in the debate and it won’t matter. Polls go up and down all the time. Dont panic. In good news here is proof the economy is better under Biden that trump. > **[Is US economy better now than under Trump?](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xl5vnlzpwo)** > > BBC Verify looks at jobs, inflation, stocks and other indicators to compare the Trump and Biden economies. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/911 "2024-09-04T19:18:34Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Polls go up and down all the time. Dont panic. I know but it’s been consistently down for a couple of weeks. > [@DrDeth](#): > > In good news here is proof the economy is better under Biden that trump. I believe it. You believe it. Most people don’t care about your facts. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/912 "2024-09-04T19:28:29Z")
How do you know we won’t get 10+ point swings in favor of Harris next week if things are that volatile? Or are you arguing that her numbers are in that severe of a freefall? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/913 "2024-09-04T19:44:57Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > I know but it’s been consistently down for a couple of weeks. No. The Silver _forecast_ is down despite polling being slightly _up_ and then steady because it is not as much up as his model has declared a typical convention bounce should be. Which he notes is a very fuzzy estimate as this cycle is very much not typical. Do not confuse the forecast percentages with polling percentages. The forecast can and does change even as the polling does not. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/914 "2024-09-04T20:05:39Z")
538’s forecast model has also been declining for Harris, but from 59% in her favor to 55% in her favor. > **[Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)** > > 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/915 "2024-09-04T20:08:35Z")
I could see her just calling him Don-old every time he gets it wrong, but I agree it’s not the place for such things. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/916 "2024-09-04T20:17:17Z")
I’m not sure the distinction between Don-old and Donald is all that clear when spoken. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/917 "2024-09-04T20:39:34Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I’m not sure the distinction between Don-old and Donald is all that clear when spoken Just adjust the cadence a smidge, to hit the “old” part harder. “Don-_OLD_” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/918 "2024-09-04T21:17:46Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > How do you know we won’t get 10+ point swings in favor of Harris next week if things are that volatile? Or are you arguing that her numbers are in that severe of a freefall? I obviously don’t know the future. I am not comfortable at all with how things are going. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/919 "2024-09-04T22:02:19Z")
And you’re confident enough to judge “how things are going” when the numbers _are_ so volatile? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/920 "2024-09-04T22:21:56Z")
It should be very clear that I’m not confident at all. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2024, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/921 "2024-09-04T23:59:01Z")
> **[Liz Cheney says she is voting for Harris for president | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/liz-cheney-voting-kamala-harris/index.html)** > > Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney is voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, she said during remarks at Duke University, according to audio obtained by CNN. Cheney will vote for Harris. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/922 "2024-09-05T00:31:55Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Liz Cheney is not a friend to Democrats no matter how she acted in regards to Jan 6th. > [@susan](#): > > Cheney will vote for Harris. Okay, but just this once ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/923 "2024-09-05T00:56:14Z")
Or, she could go with “D’oh-nald” – if Matt approves. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/924 "2024-09-05T03:52:43Z")
> [@susan](#): > > Cheney will vote for Harris. This is good but you know what is even better? An endorsement from Captain Janeway: > **[Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Talks Inspiration Of ‘Star Trek: Voyager’ And...](https://trekmovie.com/2024/08/25/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-talks-inspiration-of-star-trek-voyager-and-captain-janeway-kate-mulgrew-responds/)** > > A high-profile member of Congress sees Star Trek's vision of the future becoming reality. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/925 "2024-09-05T19:30:12Z")
Some guy named Allan Lichtman [hss devised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xE22XjWEyQE) a tool for predicting the election result. Relying on 13 metrics, he claims it has returned accurate results for 40 years. His count has Ms Harris leading by 8-to-3, with 2 foreign-policy-related metrics not fully estabished. (note: link is to a 7 minute YT video) ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/926 "2024-09-05T20:20:12Z")
He’s been around for a while and he’s a hack [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=45) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=47)