# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/927 "2024-09-05T20:41:37Z")
Here’s the Wikipedia article about Lichtman’s system. It’s nothing new, it was developed over 40 years ago and has been making predictions about presidential elections since Reagan’s reelection. > **[The Keys to the White House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)** > > The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. > The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the United States and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the ch... It is very subjective and has received a lot of criticism. The article gets into a lot of detail about how it works. I’m putting this in here in case people are curious about who this guy is and how his predictions work. If someone wants to have a discussion about it, it should probably be either in one of the polling threads or a new thread (though personally, I don’t think one guy’s model is interesting enough for its own thread). ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/928 "2024-09-05T20:47:39Z")
It sounds like the political equivalent of cold reading. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/929 "2024-09-05T21:15:14Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > If someone wants to have a discussion about it, it should probably be either in one of the polling threads or a new thread (though personally, I don’t think one guy’s model is interesting enough for its own thread). Lichtman’s system was discussed at length in another P&E thread a few months back. I think it was the “ **Polling is broken?** ” thread, but would have to check. EDIT: I misremembered – Lichtman’s system did have it’s own thread: > [@How much credence do you put in Allan Lichtman and his "Keys To The White House"?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-credence-do-you-put-in-allan-lichtman-and-his-keys-to-the-white-house/1004434): > > I haven’t posted here more than once since the debate, having been in Tevye mode since it happened. (“On the other hand…on the other hand…on the other hand…”) I’m still mostly on the fence, although I lean more towards wanting Biden to step down and Harris to head the ticket. However, one of the things that gives some pause is historian Allan Lichtman and his [“Thirteen Keys To The White House” formula.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House) Lichtman has crafted a formula that appears to have been right for every election for the las… ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/930 "2024-09-05T22:10:48Z")
I dunno, DON-ld vs Don-OLD seems pretty distinct. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/931 "2024-09-05T22:30:34Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > EDIT: I misremembered – Lichtman’s system did have it’s own thread: Thank you for that. 👍 ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/932 "2024-09-06T00:02:42Z")
Vladimir Putin has said he supports Harris for president. I wonder what Trump and/or Fox will do with that? > **[Putin backs Harris for US president, with wry smile](https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-backs-harris-us-president-101255474.html)** > > Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday he supported Kamala Harris in November's US presidential election, an apparent wry remark that led to a renewed call from Washington for the Kremlin to "stop interfering".Responding to Putin's comments,... ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/933 "2024-09-06T00:18:25Z")
This is an interesting video on how the Harris campaign hit the ground running and the logistics of it all (one of my favorite YouTube channels): ( 24 min) [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Aj8lwyWKpa4/maxresdefault.jpg "The Logistics of a Presidential Campaign") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aj8lwyWKpa4) ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/934 "2024-09-06T01:19:41Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Vladimir Putin has said he supports Harris for president. I take that to be a tacit admission that he is actively trying to interfere on Trump’s behalf. The key, of course, is _trying_. While I fully believe that many social media trolls are Russian bots, I also feel confident that the democrats, and the U.S. government as a whole, is better prepared for cyber warfare than they were in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/935 "2024-09-06T19:55:31Z")
Liz Cheney said at the Texas Tribune Festival today that her father – i.e. former VP Dick Cheney – will be voting for Harris for president ([link](https://www.texastribune.org/2024/09/06/dick-cheney-kamala-harris-liz-cheney-colin-allred/)). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/936 "2024-09-06T20:09:37Z")
538’s model again has Harris down to winning just 55% of runs. The swing states that have slipped a little for her in the last week are Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. Only Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada are holding steady. > **[Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)** > > 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. (Click on a state to see how often it favors Harris in model runs). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/937 "2024-09-06T20:13:41Z")
Following models day to day is a recipe for stress, and doesn’t really give you any new information. The polls say it’s a close race. They’ll say that tomorrow too. Maybe this will change at some point, but there’s essentially no difference between a 55% chance, 58% chance, and even 45%. All of those are functionally coin flips. I think we’re going to see some systemic under counting of the anti Trump vote, just like we have in elections since '22, and even in the Republican primaries. But that’s just a guess. I recommend not following the models that closely, and certainly don’t let day to day changes impact your quality of life. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/938 "2024-09-06T20:47:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Following models day to day is a recipe for stress, and doesn’t really give you any new information. The polls say it’s a close race. They’ll say that tomorrow too. Maybe this will change at some point, but there’s essentially no difference between a 55% chance, 58% chance, and even 45%. All of those are functionally coin flips. I’ve posted it before and do so again: ### Electoral College 2024 Excluding States Where the Candidates are Statistically Tied [![](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/ec_graph-2024-solid.png) ](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/ec_graph-2024-solid.png)   Until either candidate is statistically ahead in states totalling 270 electoral votes or more, we’re close to a coin flip. All that the fancy models do is try to squeeze a little more precision out of “coin flip”. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/939 "2024-09-06T21:18:52Z")
Otoh, there _are_ other indicators… > ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/940 "2024-09-06T21:25:45Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Otoh, there _are_ other indicators… Yep. There’s good reason for Harris supporters to be optimistic. There’s also good reason to not be complacent. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/941 "2024-09-06T21:58:33Z")
I wonder if some of that cash can be diverted to important races down the ballot: > **[Harris is swimming in cash — but down-ballot Democrats need more](https://www.vox.com/politics/369878/kamala-harris-fundraising-transfer-state-legislature-abortion)** > > Kamala Harris is raising more campaign cash than Donald Trump. But the outpouring of Democratic donations isn’t trickling down to state legislative races. tl;dr - supporting candidates in local races and for state legislatures can help some states near tipping points like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona, and moving the state government into Democratic control in those states (as happened in Minnesota in 2022) can make a big difference in policy. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/942 "2024-09-06T22:04:54Z")
Does the money in her campaign include Biden’s? I thought he had something like $2XX million when he dropped out. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/943 "2024-09-06T22:26:59Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Liz Cheney said at the Texas Tribune Festival today that her father – i.e. former VP Dick Cheney – will be voting for Harris for president I’m pretty sure he even said that himself a few weeks ago. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2024, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/944 "2024-09-06T22:32:58Z")
[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GW0zyH0WMAA0TIY?format=jpg&name=small) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GW0zyH0WMAA0TIY?format=jpg&name=small) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2024, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/945 "2024-09-07T00:11:56Z")
Well they are? [https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/03/harris-campaign-down-ballot-spending-00177075](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/03/harris-campaign-down-ballot-spending-00177075) More and earlier than previous candidates have done. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/946 "2024-09-07T00:39:37Z")
> [@needscoffee](#): > > I’m pretty sure he even said that himself a few weeks ago. He put out the statement @Smapti cited after Liz’s comments, but I’m not aware that he’s said he’d vote for Harris previously. Of course, I don’t know that this is an endorsement Harris will particularly want to tout. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=48)