# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 60
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2024, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1202 "2024-09-14T22:43:09Z")
Hold dem horses sah. 538 popular vote predictor is up about 0.8 to +2.8, not +3.5. Overall a modest increase in polls done both before and after from down one to up to. > [@](#): > > our forecast margin in the national popular vote moving 0.8 percentage points in her direction by 5:00 pm Eastern on Friday, Sept 13. > > If we look at all the polls that have been conducted entirely post-debate and compare them to each firms’ pre-debate surveys, Harris’s momentum is clear. Harris gained 1 point on margin according to an Ipsos/Reuters national poll; 2 points in RMG Research’s polling; 2 points according to Morning Consult; and 1 point according to SoCal Strategies. Polls from Leger and Redfield & Wilton Strategies show Harris losing 1 point and running even (respectively) compared to their last surveys. Which yes has their model very much in tossup range of 60% forecast of a Harris EC win. But so far a fairly modest debate bounce. More state polls in particular will be helpful. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2024, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1203 "2024-09-14T22:49:58Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Harris’ latest policy idea is to cut degree requirements for federal jobs. This seems like a good idea on the face of it. > > [https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-says-she-will-cut-degree-requirements-certain-federal-jobs-2024-09-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-says-she-will-cut-degree-requirements-certain-federal-jobs-2024-09-14/) This mirrors what Tim Walz did in Minnesota, to great acclaim. [https://mn.gov/governor/newsroom/press-releases/?id=1055-597989#:~:text=[ST.,Minnesota%20to%20choose%20state%20service](https://mn.gov/governor/newsroom/press-releases/?id=1055-597989#:~:text=%5BST.,Minnesota%20to%20choose%20state%20service). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1204 "2024-09-15T03:16:42Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > That’s where Hilary Clinton was, iirc. Winning 60% of the runs. More like 75% of them! Anyway, Harris is down to 58% now. I’d say about the middle of this coming week is when the post-debate polling should be robust and meaningful. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1205 "2024-09-15T03:29:51Z")
Huh, that article is still posted > **[2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)** > > Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump 71.4% odds for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1206 "2024-09-15T04:00:55Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Harris is down to 58% now. Omigod. Down two points from where she was a few hours ago!!! Disaster! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1207 "2024-09-15T11:58:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Omigod. Down two points from where she was a few hours ago!!! Disaster! Ha. Don’t worry, you know that I know that this means nothing in itself. That was my point — to not read too much into the 60% I had reported earlier in the day. But it does seem there’s a pretty good chance we will be solidly in that 60-65 range by the middle of the week, by which time we’ll have enough polls to extract a trend from the noise (if there is one). Or maybe we’ll never get there, and my prediction will be proven wrong. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1208 "2024-09-15T12:34:28Z")
InsiderAdvantage now gives PA to Trump, 49 to 48. But 538 polls rating is only two star. [Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/) Still, polls in PA are few and none reflect the debate and eating cats and dogs meme. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1209 "2024-09-15T13:17:01Z")
Anyone have a current update on polling? The last one was 40 minutes ago. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1210 "2024-09-15T13:24:15Z")
Here you go: Harris has a 100% approval rating in my household and Trump has a 0%. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1211 "2024-09-15T13:39:23Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Anyone have a current update on polling? The last one was 40 minutes ago. Okay, that was funny. (Took me a second!) But let’s be a little gentle with each other, and with ourselves. If we check polls too often (I’m guilty of this), it’s not because we really think there’s some important data we need to know every day. It’s merely a reflection of our **anxiety** , knowing the stakes are so high. Will the next four years – and those of our children and friends and those less fortunate, and of our republic writ large – be crappy in important ways, or not so crappy? If this election were (say) Romney vs. Obama, and the polls were as close as they are today, would we be checking them daily? No. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1212 "2024-09-15T14:17:35Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > It’s merely a reflection of our **anxiety** , True, but repetitively checking the polls can itself feed the anxiety. ---
**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1213 "2024-09-15T14:38:40Z")
More anecdotes: we saw more Harris/Waltz signs than Trump signs on the way back to Philly. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1214 "2024-09-15T15:21:11Z")
Trump’s lead in Iowa cut from 18% to 4% over the course in time from about a month before Biden dropped out until now: > **[Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa...](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-iowa-lead-shrinks-as-kamala-harris-replaces-joe-biden/75180245007/)** > > A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 47%-43% among likely voters — a dramatic improvement over Biden's showing. > [@](#): > > Before Biden ended his reelection campaign, a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading 50% to 32%. ---
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1215 "2024-09-15T15:40:06Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > True, but repetitively checking the polls can itself feed the anxiety. Agreed, and this thread is turning into a daily updates on polls thread. I would suggest that someone breakout a new thread to follow the polls and leave this one to general campaigning news. Frankly this constant discussion about polls is boring. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1216 "2024-09-15T15:41:26Z")
I agree. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1217 "2024-09-15T15:56:19Z")
Let’s take a poll!! (Hides) ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1218 "2024-09-15T16:07:07Z")
Actually, I am feelieg like we need a separate thread specifically for pollbean counting, because poll numbers have all but completely consumed the content of this thread leaving little room for any other content. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1219 "2024-09-15T17:00:58Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Actually, I am feelieg like we need a separate thread specifically for pollbean counting, because poll numbers have all but completely consumed the content of this thread This should do: > [@Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/117): > > My “comment on polling” is that the margin of error concept often cited makes little to no sense. First, it is based on the idea that there could be up to a five percent chance an individual poll is outside the margin. The number five is arbitrary. If a post of mine, or any of us, had less than a fifteen percent chance of being wrong, IMHO that would be excellent by SDMB standards. And most discussion incudes multiple similar or averaged polls. Add the sample sizes together, and the traditiona… ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1220 "2024-09-15T17:47:45Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > This should do: I don’t think so, based on @What_Exit 's direction in the first post in that thread: > [@Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/1): > > A place to talk about polling, **not the latest polls** , but poll taking and balance. (My bolding) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2024, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1221 "2024-09-15T17:50:44Z")
Results of polls about Harris vs. Trump are fine here. It is a big part of this thread. The other poll thread is about how polls are done and meta stuff like that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=59) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=61)