# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 66
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1323 "2024-09-19T17:07:46Z")
There are a dozen other polls, many from well-graded outfits, that show a much rosier picture for Harris, just in the last 24 hours. Don’t freak out over a single poll, or even a single set, day, or week of polls. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1324 "2024-09-19T17:20:44Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Warning – It ain’t pretty: > > “In Georgia, 50% support Trump, 47% Harris. **In Arizona and Wisconsin, 49% support Trump, 48% support Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump, 47% Harris.** In Nevada, the candidates are tied with 48% support each. In North Carolina, 49% support Harris, 48% Trump. In Michigan, 49% support Harris, 47% support Trump.” > > (Emphasis mine). For Pete’s sake, it’s ONE POLL. Consider this: The day after the debate, Nate Silver had Trump ahead by 2.4% in AZ, GA and PA (collectively), the three worst swing states for Harris. Four days later, Trump was only up by 2% in those states. Now today, he’s only up by 0.8% in those states. In eight days, the Trumpiest of the six swing states have swung 1.6% toward Harris. His lead in those states has shrunk by two thirds in slightly over a week. Every indication is that everything is moving in her direction where it matters. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1325 "2024-09-19T17:47:58Z")
Indeed Silver has Harris up to winning in 49% of the runs up from a low of 35% the day before the debate. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1326 "2024-09-19T17:50:58Z")
Cherry picking _either direction_? That way lies madness. Aggregate and temper the good. And the bad. It will keep us from three faced die range for a bit at least. No more or less than that. FWIW polls do belong in this thread but we seem to be repeating the same play by play in several threads. Is there any better way? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1327 "2024-09-19T17:55:51Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > How quickly they call a state has more to do with how they count ballots than with how close it is these days. We could almost use a federal law mandating that early votes get sorted in advance. Isn’t one of the issues that some Republicans don’t allow votes to be pre-sorted in order to take more time and give the false appearance of fraud? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1328 "2024-09-19T18:01:05Z")
I’m pretty sure any federal law like that would be overturned pretty quickly. The Constitution leaves election law to each state legislature so this likely wouldn’t be possible. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1329 "2024-09-19T18:53:38Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > These people are lying. There are going to vote for Trump and there is nothing Harris can do about it. Another rough analogy is with the Teamsters’ Union. The Union leadership declined to endorse the D candidate (this is unusual), even though her positions align better with the union’s interests, merely because an apparent majority of union members like Trump. (Source: NPR news today). And why do they like Trump? Because Trump hates the same people they hate. Harris won’t “hurt the people she’s suppose to be hurting.” ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1330 "2024-09-19T19:27:57Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > a habit of taking the best Harris poll and assuming I saw this and a thought occurred to me: I wonder how Ms Harris is doing in the latest Harris poll. However, it appears that [Harris](https://theharrispoll.com/) is avoiding the political arena, focusing more on marketing-related polling. ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1331 "2024-09-19T19:55:09Z")
> **hidden as ignore modnote a few posts up.** > > > [@Sherrerd](#): > > > > Interesting. And no doubt annoying for those whose names are routinely said in a way the name-holder does not prefer. > > > > I would guess that Harris, like you, is fairly used to that sort of thing (throughout her life). And that like you, she doesn’t assume malice (though well-aware that it does exist in some she interacts with). > > FWIW, I pronounced it the way it was pronounced in **The Matrix: Revolutions** until she became a large enough player that her name was a topic of discussion. Of course, I found it fairly easy to correct my pronunciation once I chose to. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1332 "2024-09-19T20:44:28Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > > [@JKellyMap](#): > > > > “The share of voters who said they still wanted to learn more about Ms. Harris was nearly identical, both before and after the debate, suggesting that she might have missed an opportunity to address doubts or provide more details to the public.” > > These people are lying. There are going to vote for Trump and there is nothing Harris can do about it. They just want to find the right mask that makes it acceptable in their minds to do so. Trump hasn’t found anything that sticks so they are going with the “I just don’t know enough about her” line. … I’ll add to those commending this post. Yes, “I don’t know enough about her” is 100% a fake excuse, given by those who will either vote for Trump or not vote at all, because they’re ‘okay’ with Trump getting in again. And yes, the number of people who won’t tell pollsters that they support Trump _even though they do_, is huge. There is no such phenomenon on the Democratic side. So we must not relax because Harris/Walz are a few percentage points ahead in polls–there’s not only the Electoral College GOP advantage to be overcome, there’s the ‘_will vote for Trump but won’t admit it to pollsters_’ contingent. @outlierrn --I won’t reply (due to moderation that appears a ways up in this thread) other than to say that I’m sure you’re not alone. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1333 "2024-09-19T21:12:18Z")
> **[Link to Howard University poll results (PDF)](https://gs.howard.edu/sites/gs.howard.edu/files/2024-09/HIPO_Battleground_Black_American_Survey_Wave_1_Toplines_2024_09_12_for_release_09182024.pdf)** ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1334 "2024-09-19T21:14:09Z")
Sorry, my bad, skipped forward and missed the note. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1335 "2024-09-19T22:51:33Z")
Here’s a couple of things, gleaned from Jeff Tiedrich’s daily email commentary blast. Yes, yes, I know he’s rabidly partisan, so take it for what it’s worth, but two things: 1. Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, who in 2020 correctly predicted all but one (Georgia) of the states Biden would win, is predicting a big win for Harris, based on his use of the betting markets rather than the polls. Yep, you’re absolutely right, this seems like a pipe dream and I continue to worry. Still, if the guy’s right… 1. And to cheer y’all up, here’s a video of Walz being Walz. How many other politicians can you think of who’d turn their backs to the camera to talk to a voter? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xOwF8kqE2Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xOwF8kqE2Y) ETA: [Here’s a hyperlink](https://substack.com/redirect/a3da8d05-c41e-434a-a82c-fe8d3c5b7c92?j=eyJ1IjoiMmliamt1In0.sRQSuChkC1iTsJI63rxm1vn6ya2rPgCSDWTebxuCHM4) to the Thomas Miller story Tiedrich took his stuff from, which is on Alternet. I don’t have a subscription, so i couldn’t see it past the headline. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1336 "2024-09-19T23:07:11Z")
Hoping the revelations that NC Republican governor candidate visited porn sites and commented about being Black Hitler, etc. will sink him there and possibly drag down Trump as well. If Harris wins NC, it would be a big deal. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1337 "2024-09-19T23:49:02Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Yep, you’re absolutely right, this seems like a pipe dream and I continue to worry. Still, if the guy’s right… Yep. **Guarded optimism** is the byword here. > [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > And to cheer y’all up, here’s a video of Walz being Walz. How many other politicians can you think of who’d turn their backs to the camera to talk to a voter? He is just so likable. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > If Harris wins NC, it would be a big deal. They are neck and neck with trump ahead by a nose. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1338 "2024-09-20T02:10:18Z")
I don’t see that it’s been mentioned that the Fed finally lowered interest rates for the first time since the pandemic began. I’d anticipate that a drop by a half point will spur more buying activity, so the economy should be on an upswing as we get to November. > **[Mortgage rates drop to lowest since February 2023 after Fed’s...](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/19/economy/us-existing-home-sales-august)** > > Mortgage rates continued to decline this week, taking a little more pressure off America’s tight housing market as the Federal Reserve ramps up its efforts to keep the economy on an even keel. As much as people try to demonize the economy, it is on solid footing right now. That only helps Harris, which is why Republicans are so upset. > **[Republicans Are Livid About ... the Fed Lowering Interest Rates](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-republicans-federal-reserve-slashing-interest-rates-1235106672/)** > > Donald Trump and Republicans accused the Federal Reserve of election interference after the central bank slashed interest rates. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1339 "2024-09-20T02:15:36Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > As much as people try to demonize the economy, it is on solid footing right now. Gasoline prices are dropping, and are expected to continue to drop. [Link goes to abc.com](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/gas-prices-plummeting-experts-explain/story?id=113751441#:~:text=Drivers%20have%20enjoyed%20a%20sharp%20decline%20in%20gasoline,according%20to%20AAA%20data%20shared%20with%20ABC%20News.) > Drivers have enjoyed a sharp decline in gasoline prices over recent weeks – and the good times are expected to continue. > > Gas prices have plummeted about 13% from a 2024 peak in April, which amounts to a decline of nearly 50 cents per gallon, according to AAA data shared with ABC News. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1340 "2024-09-20T11:31:20Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Gasoline prices are dropping, and are expected to continue to drop. I’m sure that - and other positive economic news - is merely in anticipation of all the greatness we are going to experience when our great leader is re-elected. 🙄 ---
**Author:** ![MrAtoz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MrAtoz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrAtoz)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1341 "2024-09-20T12:45:07Z")
The most prominent conservative among my Facebook “friends” posted a couple of days ago that if you’re trying to buy a house, an interest rate cut is the last thing you want. No, I don’t understand the logic, either. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1342 "2024-09-20T13:17:56Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > That only helps Harris, which is why Republicans are so upset. > > [Trump, Republicans Bash Federal Reserve for Slashing Interest Rates](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-republicans-federal-reserve-slashing-interest-rates-1235106672/) I figured he’d have this response. _Who cares if it’s good for the economy and most Americans? It’s bad for meeee!_ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=65) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=67)