# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 71
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1423 "2024-09-22T18:06:50Z")
**Warning** issued for ignoring modnote just issued two posts above. I will also be hiding your post. * * * * * * I guess oversized didn’t help after all. ## To everyone, please scan the thread before you post for **moderating** posts. I know how it can be missed, but the onus is on you, especially when your post is not really on topic. If you need to reply, that please follow these instructions: > **How to Reply as a linked Topic** > > Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, _looks like a curving arrow point to the right_. > > Choose **Reply as linked topic** and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it. > > That is actually the best method. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1424 "2024-09-23T05:25:28Z")
I am having trouble understanding how the _previous conversation_ is not related to Kamala Harris’s run for office, especially since she’s the one who brought it up in answer to a specific question. Having said that, I’ve got say I think she’s handling questions very well, certainly better than Trump is. That auto-complete video was great! Something the younger crowd can get into. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1425 "2024-09-23T15:35:48Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > I am having trouble understanding how the _previous conversation_ is not related to Kamala Harris’s run for office It was, and it may have been slightly fudgy but was clearly clinging to the topic, but the mods are absolutely terrified of the gun issue coming in like a cancer and godwinizing any thread that is not supposed to be about guns, so they are extra special careful about stomping out those flareups in infancy. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1426 "2024-09-23T16:07:29Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > I am having trouble understanding how the _previous conversation_ is not related to Kamala Harris’s run for office, especially since she’s the one who brought it up in answer to a specific question. > [@eschereal](#): > > It was, and it may have been slightly fudgy but was clearly clinging to the topic, but the mods are absolutely terrified of the gun issue coming in like a cancer and godwinizing any thread that is not supposed to be about guns, so they are extra special careful about stomping out those flareups in infancy. _ **Moderating** _ Everyone, if you have questions, complaints, emotional outbursts, etc, about moderation, please take it to ATMB or PM with moderation team, rather than in-thread. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1427 "2024-09-23T17:12:21Z")
As expected (due to several recent polls that aren’t good for Harris, especially in states beyond the Blue Wall), the 538 model is taking a dip, currently at 58% wins for Harris across 1000 runs (off a high of 62% just yesterday). Before any of start yelling at me: I know this is a statistically meaningless difference, and things will shift again (and again), and that it’s unhealthy to check on these things more than once or twice per week. I’m just reporting the effect of recent polls on this model’s forecasts (not predictions, _forecasts_). (Also: One of the recent Times/Siena polls has 2% of voters choosing “Oliver.” What the hell is an oliver? Did they throw that in with some fake name, to check if the respondent is paying attention – you know, how they do in many academic surveys?). ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1428 "2024-09-23T17:33:45Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > One of the recent Times/Siena polls has 2% of voters choosing “Oliver.” What the hell is an oliver? > **[As voters suffer presidential election deja vu, Chase Oliver wants to be...](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/21/nx-s1-4987678/chase-oliver-libertarian-president-trump-mises-caucus)** > > Libertarian presidential nominee Chase Oliver wants to take on the two-party system. But before he can appeal to outside voters, he’s got to convince members of his own party to support him. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1429 "2024-09-23T20:22:28Z")
Lichtman, who has correctly called every election right but 2000, say Harris will win- > **[Allan Lichtman Is Very Comfortable About Predicting the 2024 Election -...](https://www.washingtonian.com/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-is-very-comfortable-about-predicting-the-2024-election/)** > > American University professor Allan Lichtman released his quadrennial prediction for the presidential election Thursday via a snappy New York Times video that called him the "Prophet of Presidential Elections." That's because Lichtman, by way of his... _American University professor Allan Lichtman released his quadrennial prediction for the presidential election Thursday via a snappy New York Times video that called him the “[Prophet of Presidential Elections](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html).” That’s because Lichtman, by way of his system of 13 questions, or “keys,” that determine his call, has correctly called every election except 2000’s, which was admittedly an odd one. This year, he expects Kamala Harris to win._…_Sometimes the keys fall into place early. For example, my first prediction was of Ronald Reagan’s reelection in your magazine in April 1982, almost three years ahead of time, when America was in the grip of the worst recession to date since the Great Depression, when 60 percent of Americans said Ronald Reagan was too old to run again, and his approval rating was historically low. But the keys had fallen into place. I called the hard-to-call 2012 Obama reelection in 2010. But recently, probably because of the extreme polarization, the keys have fallen into place late._ ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1430 "2024-09-23T21:20:05Z")
I was hoping it was something like, “Oliver Votescounted”. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1431 "2024-09-23T21:34:00Z")
Geopolitical commentator Peter Zeihan also seems pretty certain Kamala will win. According to him Republicans only win when they a) are completely united and b) pull independents to their side. This is due to the fact that there are simply more Democrats than Republicans. The way he sees it they are currently neither united nor pulling independents. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1432 "2024-09-23T21:39:22Z")
> **off-topic pollster praise.** > > > [@DigitalC](#): > > > > Geopolitical commentator Peter Zeihan also seems pretty certain Kamala will win > > My Buddy loves that guy. I have read one of his books, and he is convincing. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1433 "2024-09-23T21:40:44Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Geopolitical commentator Peter Zeihan also seems pretty certain Kamala will win. According to him Republicans only win when they a) are completely united and b) pull independents to their side. This is due to the fact that there are simply more Democrats than Republicans. The way he sees it they are currently neither united nor pulling independents. I hope he’s right. It’s way too close. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1434 "2024-09-23T22:00:37Z")
> **Off-topic argument hidden, please don't reply.** > > > [@DrDeth](#): > > > > > [@DigitalC](#): > > > > > > Geopolitical commentator Peter Zeihan also seems pretty certain Kamala will win > > > > My Buddy loves that guy. I have read one of his books, and he is convincing. > > I’m convinced he’s a clever – even smart – crank specializing in making bold predictions about the unpredictable. > > [For example:](https://blog.naiop.org/2023/10/zeihan-on-china-inflation-predictions-demographics-and-the-labor-supply/): > > > [@](#): > > > > We have to double the size of the industrial plant on this continent, and we need to do it in the next 10 years. We’re going to have 9-15% inflation over that period.” > > [And:](https://landreport.com/peter-zeihan-shares-geopolitical-forecast) > > > [@](#): > > > > “This is a [projected] famine that will ultimately claim a billion lives,” Zeihan said. > > > > In the midst of this turmoil, US farming will face a boom market. > > Now, if Harris winning is the one prediction of his that comes true, that would be wonderful. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1435 "2024-09-23T22:01:57Z")
I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict Harris will win the popular vote. But I’m not willing to call the EC. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1436 "2024-09-23T22:06:11Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Geopolitical commentator Peter Zeihan also seems pretty certain Kamala will win. According to him Republicans only win when they a) are completely united and b) pull independents to their side. This is due to the fact that there are simply more Democrats than Republicans. All very well as far as the popular vote goes. We need the Electoral College. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1437 "2024-09-23T22:07:46Z")
---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1438 "2024-09-23T22:09:43Z")
**Moderating:** Your post would work far better as a new topic. No fights over pollsters and predicters in this thread. @DrDeth, praise of these pollsters also is off-topic. Stop doing this. * * * * * * **If you are responding to something in a thread that is basically off-topic or likely to lead to a hijack, try this:** How to **Reply as a linked Topic** : Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, _looks like a curving arrow point to the right_. Choose **Reply as linked topic** and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it. That is actually the best method. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1439 "2024-09-23T22:14:40Z")
---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1440 "2024-09-23T22:14:50Z")
> **Summary** > > Peter Zeihan is not a pollster . ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1441 "2024-09-23T22:15:25Z")
That is not on topic for this thread. **MODERATING** ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1442 "2024-09-23T22:17:54Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I was hoping it was something like, “Oliver Votescounted”. Ba dum - _tish!_ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=70) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=72)