# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1504 "2024-09-26T15:43:15Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Which one is the correct snapshot, the near tie or the one that reports the bigger lead than any other? Of course no way to know. Throw it in the mix. Don’t just only “pick the poll you like best” and ignore the rest. It’s the Pollsach Test ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1505 "2024-09-26T15:46:19Z")
Even if it’s just a few people breaking away from the GOP to support Harris, it can hopefully have a large effect. > **[Republicans for Harris warn Pennsylvania voters about a second Trump term](https://keystonenewsroom.com/2024/09/25/republicans-for-harris-lancaster/)** > > The Kamala Harris campaign launched their Republicans for Harris initiative in Lancaster County on Wednesday, warning voters about the dangers of a second Donald Trump presidency.  ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1506 "2024-09-26T15:52:50Z")
I’m throwing this in here but unsure if it is right thread. Hurricane Helena is looking like it may displace a bunch of people in the Florida panhandle, a pretty wide swath sounds like. I sincerely hope the damages are less than expected. And I am curious about what the election impacts of significant disruptions and displacement in very GOP leaning portion of Florida might be. The people and local governments of those regions may have concerns more immediately pressing than effectively running polling stations and getting out the vote. Is there historical precedence for the impact of natural disasters on elections (short of great job Brownie sort of stuff)? ETA I can find this in the immediate aftermath of Ian. Unsure how it ended up playing out. > **[Hurricane Ian’s Impact on Florida’s Elections](https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/hurricane-ians-impact-on-floridas-elections/)** > > Here’s how the storm is impacting the state’s elections this year. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1507 "2024-09-26T16:01:29Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > If she wins, and Dems win both houses, _and_ reproductive rights referenda pass in Florida Given the wording of the Florida referendum, I’m not confident about it passing: > [@](#): > > **Amendment to Limit Government** > **Interference with Abortion** > > No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict > abortion before viability or when necessary to > protect the patient’s health, as determined by > the patient’s healthcare provider. This > amendment does not change the Legislature’s > constitutional authority to require notification to > a parent or guardian before a minor has an > abortion. > The proposed amendment would result in > significantly more abortions and fewer live births > per year in Florida. The increase in abortions > could be even greater if the amendment > invalidates laws requiring parental consent > before minors undergo abortions and those > ensuring only licensed physicians perform > abortions. There is also uncertainty about > whether the amendment will require the state to > subsidize abortions with public funds. Litigation > to resolve those and other uncertainties will > result in additional costs to the state > government and state courts that will negatively > impact the state budget. An increase in > abortions may negatively affect the growth of > state and local revenues over time. Because > the fiscal impact of increased abortions on state > and local revenues and costs cannot be > estimated with precision, the total impact of the > proposed amendment is indeterminate. THE > FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THIS AMENDMENT > CANNOT BE DETERMINED DUE TO > AMBIGUITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES > SURROUNDING THE AMENDMENT’S > IMPACT. Never mind the dead babies - it’ll cost you money! The marijuana one, on the other hand, is basically “pot will be legal AND we’ll be raking in the tax revenue”. Maybe they should have netted the effects of the two… ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1508 "2024-09-26T16:05:40Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Given the wording of the Florida referendum, I’m not confident about it passing Yikes! Neither am I, now that I’ve read it. It reads like Republicans wrote it. Why on earth does it include every possible negative factor without saying a single positive thing about reproductive rights? > [@Gyrate](#): > > Maybe they should have netted the effects of the two… The _Your Lungs, Your Uterus_ bill. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1509 "2024-09-26T16:14:08Z")
I care a bit about its passings d more about its ability to drive Democratic turnout. Pulling Florida out for Harris and defeating Scott would be wonderful unexpected events that while improbable are not impossible. Reading up about the response to Ian - DeSantis specifically made executive orders to help offset the election turnout impacts _in the GOP leaning districts_ and NOT in the D leaning one. But I can’t find any post hoc analysis of the impact yet. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1510 "2024-09-26T16:47:25Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The Chicago convention went so well, and the pivot from Joe to Kamala so smoothly, I really thought she’d get a noticeable bounce in the polls. Too bad. She was right smack in the middle of a “bounce” when the convention happened and had already been in the news 24/7 for the couple weeks prior to that since Biden dropped out. Her convention bounce happened prematurely. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1511 "2024-09-26T16:48:29Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > > [@Biffster](#): > > > > she seems to hold a good 5-6% lead over Trump nationally > > She does?? > > **What poll aggregator are you following?** > > 538 has her up 2.6. NYT up 3. RCP up 2.1. > > Where are you getting 5 to 6? Only looking at the Reuters Ipsos one ? _(my emphasis)_ Won’t go into detail here because this is not the polling thread, but it should be noted that most aggregators weigh individual polls differently before calculating their final horse-race figure. Real Clear Polling does use just raw polling numbers without weighting BUT only aggregates a handful of poll numbers. One exercise I like to do is to go through **[FiveThirtyEight’s raw list of polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/)** and just peruse how many recent polls are at or above a certain number. Right now, I’m focused on Harris +4 or better. She’s got a ton of polling in that range since the debate. Yes, closer polls from NYT/Siena. Quinnipac, CNN, etc. will drag the weighted average down a good bit. But right now? I’ll eat my hat if Harris doesn’t win the popular vote by 4 or more points (cf. Biden’s ~4.5% popular vote lead in the 2020 general election). I know, I know … Electoral College!TM Yeah – let’s see how clear The Pollsters’ crystal balls actually end up being in the battleground states. **[John Fetterman vs. Dr. Oz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania#Polling_3)** (**[Fetterman won by 5%](https://nypost.com/2022/11/03/oz-pulls-ahead-of-fetterman-in-pa-senate-race-polls/)**). **[Tom Suozzi vs. Mazi Pilip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_special_election#Polling)** (**[Suozzi won by 8%](https://nypost.com/2024/02/12/news/tom-suozzi-ahead-of-mazi-pilip-by-1-point-on-election-eve-poll/)**). Etc., etc. Tie into thread topic: Kamala Harris is in no way in a bad position “in the polls”. The very most you can say is that right now “the polling” doesn’t support a guaranteed Harris victory – which is not a particularly remarkable statement. She’s never going start racking up +20 polls or anything like that. It “will be close!” until November 5th. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1512 "2024-09-26T17:08:32Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Tie into thread topic: Kamala Harris is in no way in a bad position “in the polls”. The very most you can say is that right now “the polling” doesn’t support a guaranteed Harris victory – which is not a particularly remarkable statement. She’s never going start racking up +20 polls or anything like that. It “will be close!” until November 5th. A lot of people seem to be following the 2016 Clinton belief that the Democratic candidate “should” be miles ahead of Trump, because he’s such an awful person, and not beating him by double digits is a sign of Democratic weakness, deficiency, or increased odds of defeat. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1513 "2024-09-26T17:23:49Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > It reads like Republicans wrote it. That’s because they did. The wording was approved by a “non-partisan” panel that DeSantis packed with people he hand selected. [Gift link](https://wapo.st/3zq9orE) to Washington post Article. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1514 "2024-09-26T17:29:51Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Hurricane Helena is looking like it may displace a bunch of people in the Florida panhandle, a pretty wide swath sounds like. I sincerely hope the damages are less than expected. I’m perfectly happy seeing significant damage, and then seeing those hypocrites begging for relief while simultaneously criticizing “big government.” As much as I despise the politics and mindsets of the majority of folk down there, I’m not bothered by the idea of their god inflicting its wrath on them. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1515 "2024-09-26T17:33:18Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > That’s because they did. The wording was approved by a “non-partisan” panel that DeSantis packed with people he hand selected. That’s what it seemed like to me. The actual amendment is pretty simple. > **[Fulltext\_2307\_EN.pdf](https://initiativepetitions.elections.myflorida.com/InitiativeForms/Fulltext/Fulltext_2307_EN.pdf)** > > 97.01 KB > No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary > to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider. This amendment does not change the Legislature’s constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion. When we have initiatives on the ballot here in Washington State, generally someone from the “pro” camp writes an argument for, someone in the “con” writes an argument against, and those get included in the voting pamphlet. (Assuming someone actually writes either one.) This read like the “con” argument you’d see on a Washington pamphlet. It’s extremely partisan. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1516 "2024-09-26T17:34:36Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > > [@Akaj](#): > > > > It reads like Republicans wrote it. > > That’s because they did. The wording was approved by a “non-partisan” panel that DeSantis packed with people he hand selected. > > [Gift link](https://wapo.st/3zq9orE) to Washington post Article. The gift link didn’t work, so I’m confused. How does an abortion rights referendum, which I assume was championed by Democrats, end up being written by Republicans? (Apologies if this is a hijack having only the most tenuous link to Kamala Harris’ chances in the upcoming election.) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1517 "2024-09-26T17:35:57Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > I’ll eat my hat if Harris doesn’t win the popular vote by 4 or more points I am very optimistic of the same, but my dome _needs_ a hat in November, so no gustatory promises! Yes polls can only say so much with error possible _either_ direction, and more than that is covered elsewhere. Enthusiasm, as measured by small donor involvement if nothing else, is up for Harris. She is running a smart campaign, better than Biden’s which won. Trump enthusiasm is down and he is not campaigning at his best. Perception of the economy is picking up. The EC GOP advantage even seems to be smaller right now (Silver concurs with Cohn, differing only by degree). I am hoping to see a six point win or more. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1518 "2024-09-26T17:38:28Z")
Huh, don’t know why it didn’t work. Here are the relevant portions > Proposed amendments to the state constitution are required to be accompanied by a statement approved by a panel called the Financial Impact Estimating Conference. The FIEC is usually considered to be nonpartisan. > > Last fall, the panel approved language that said the impact of Amendment 4 was “indeterminate.” Since then, Florida Gov. [Ron DeSantis](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/ron-desantis-2024/?itid=lk_inline_manual_7) (R) and Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (R) appointed new members to the panel who voted to change the financial statement that will be on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1519 "2024-09-26T17:40:32Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’m perfectly happy seeing significant damage, and then seeing those hypocrites begging for relief while simultaneously criticizing “big government.” > > As much as I despise the politics and mindsets of the majority of folk down there, I’m not bothered by the idea of their god inflicting its wrath on them. Hundreds of thousands of people in the Florida panhandle voted for Biden, do you think God will be kind enough to pass over their houses? Should they anoint their doors with lamb’s blood? ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1520 "2024-09-26T17:43:26Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Given the wording of the Florida referendum, I’m not confident about it passing FWIW, the abortion amendment in Kansas a couple of years ago was deliberately worded so a ‘No’ vote was in favor of abortion rights. It was defeated, 59% to 41%. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1521 "2024-09-26T17:51:20Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Should they anoint their doors with lamb’s blood? It’s The South. Pig’s. Seriously whatever political stripe, and no matter the preachers who always declare disasters God’s wrath upon sinners, I hope for as little harm to people and property as can be. Which does not stop me from my wondering what impacts on the political might happen. Panhandle is predominantly pretty dark red. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1522 "2024-09-26T18:30:20Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > > [@Dinsdale](#): > > > > I’m perfectly happy seeing significant damage, and then seeing those hypocrites begging for relief while simultaneously criticizing “big government.” > > > > As much as I despise the politics and mindsets of the majority of folk down there, I’m not bothered by the idea of their god inflicting its wrath on them. > > Hundreds of thousands of people in the Florida panhandle voted for Biden, do you think God will be kind enough to pass over their houses? Should they anoint their doors with lamb’s blood? The cats and dogs living with humans of various political opinions, and what remains of wildlife in the Florida panhandle, didn’t get a chance to vote for anybody. If the hurricane hits there badly enough, some of them will die, and some of the survivors will never get back to their homes. The hurricanes, or at least the strength of them, may indeed be the planet’s retribution for human misbehavior. But as has been pointed out since Biblical times (and probably before) “the rain falleth on the just and on the unjust.” I’m not going to cheer for the damage. (Well, unless Mar el Lago gets drowned or blown down; but that a) seems unlikely and b) wouldn’t happen unless a whole lot of others get ruined also.) ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2024, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1523 "2024-09-26T18:32:24Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Here are the relevant portions > > > Proposed amendments to the state constitution are required to be accompanied by a statement approved by a panel called the Financial Impact Estimating Conference. The FIEC is usually considered to be nonpartisan. > > > > Last fall, the panel approved language that said the impact of Amendment 4 was “indeterminate.” Since then, Florida Gov. [Ron DeSantis](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/ron-desantis-2024/?itid=lk_inline_manual_7) (R) and Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (R) appointed new members to the panel who voted to change the financial statement that will be on the ballot. How can that possibly be legal? (Besides, “because Florida.”) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=76)