# Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election {No more on Guns} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 22, 2024, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571 "2024-07-22T00:39:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 80
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1604 "2024-10-04T00:38:18Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > An intentional choice, I’m sure, and not just because Wisconsin is a swing state. Ripon is the birthplace of the GOP. IMHO, there is no longer a GOP. Just the MAGAs and a few conservatives keeping their heads down. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1605 "2024-10-04T02:41:12Z")
Here’s what I wonder about your polls: Where and why is Trump gaining support (or Harris losing it)? That’s what I’m not sure of, but knowing might indicate if the trend only goes one way and how maybe to make it do so. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1606 "2024-10-04T02:47:02Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > Yes, both spoke on the little white school house. From the Little White Schoolhouse to the golden escalator: The descent of the Republican Party, in two landmarks. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1607 "2024-10-04T10:27:21Z")
Overall, Harris’ poll numbers have fluctuated slightly up and down in various swing states. The only longer-term, consistent trend I can discern are an erosion of her support in Georgia (to the point where it will be a surprise if she wins it). If you squint hard enough, you might also discern a consistent erosion in Michigan (where she’s still favored, but barely); and, perhaps, continued improvement in Nevada (though polling there is less frequent, and it holds a disappointing number of electoral votes in any case). At first I thought you were asking about regional trends _within_ each state. Some polls break this down, others do not. (Keep in mind that margins of error are greater whenever you break a poll down into “cross-tabs” like this). The recent poll linked below, highly rated by 538, breaks down within each swing state by “urban,” “rural,” and “suburban.” Here are their results for the three states I’m most concerned about: MICHIGAN Trump: urban 39%, suburban 54%, rural 55% Harris: urban 60%, suburban 43%, rural 38% NORTH CAROLINA Trump: urban 37%, suburban 44%, rural 59% Harris: urban 61%, suburban 54%, rural 41% PENNSYLVANIA Trump: urban 40%, suburban 49%, rural 64% Harris: urban 60%, suburban 49%, rural 35% The two numbers that jump out to me are Trump’s lead in suburban Michigan, and the he leads in rural Pennsylvania more than in the other two states’ rural areas. Should the Harris campaign be concentrating on these weak areas? Or, better to get out the vote and build on their strength in, say, suburban North Carolina? I’m no game theorist. > **[9e0da6ea-7e9c-498c-89e3-511bd7344cd0.pdf](https://cdn.atlasintel.org/9e0da6ea-7e9c-498c-89e3-511bd7344cd0.pdf)** > > 14.63 MB ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1608 "2024-10-04T11:41:28Z")
I don’t know that this qualifies as their "October Surprise"™ but any good ideas for pushing back on the latest talking point that “FEMA is out of money for hurricane victims because we gave it all to the illegals”, that I’m seeing across Facebook right now? I’m worried that this one might have a thimbleful of merit to it, and might “take hold” with some fence-sitters out there. ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1609 "2024-10-04T11:46:04Z")
> ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1610 "2024-10-04T12:19:40Z")
That’s going to be a very educated baby. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1611 "2024-10-04T12:23:28Z")
Thanks bud. I don’t know that we’re going to get “the right people” to watch that from beginning to end, but I love her point about Matt Fking Gaetz and other Republicans voting to defund FEMA. I’ll work later on finding some cites to back up that assertion (especially considering that “defund” seems to be those dumbasses’ favorite buzzword). Thanks again for the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1612 "2024-10-04T13:44:01Z")
Maybe Gaetz’s opponent ought to be running that as TV ads… ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1613 "2024-10-04T13:48:18Z")
Gaetz’s district is R+19, the most Republican district in Florida. He could piss in his constituents’ faces and they’d still vote for him because it’s “better than the alternative.” ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1614 "2024-10-04T14:00:00Z")
I can’t watch that, it’s on xitter. If they want everybody to watch it, they need to gpost it in more places, and give more links. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1615 "2024-10-04T14:05:24Z")
Well, it’s originally on TikTok. I think she’s on Facebook too. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1616 "2024-10-04T14:10:01Z")
Can you watch things on TikTok without an account? Is that video accessible on Facebook without an account? (Sometimes things are, sometimes they aren’t, often only the top thing or two posted are.)page is messed up for me and may not allow posting this. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1617 "2024-10-04T14:49:27Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > erosion of her support in Georgia (to the point where it will be a surprise if she wins it). FWIW I’m looking at both 538’s and the NYT’s rolling averages, and I’m not seeing anything so dramatic. 538 has Trump +1.3, and it has been fairly flat. NYT has Trump +2. Not as good as early September when it was tied and better than August. I wouldn’t place those in “surprise” range. 538’s forecast for Georgia has Trump winning 56% of their simulations. That’s not shock range to go either way. No question I’d rather it be Harris on the 56 side and Trump the 44 … ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1618 "2024-10-04T14:51:21Z")
Okay, thanks for the correction. Happy to know this. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1619 "2024-10-04T14:53:04Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > If they want everybody to watch it … I don’t think they care if “everybody” watches it. Their targets are likely well covered by those who do TikTok and Xitter. (I also do neither.) ---
**Author:** ![Shoeless](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shoeless/32/7099_2.png) [@Shoeless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shoeless)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1620 "2024-10-04T14:56:47Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > I can’t watch that, it’s on xitter. > > If they want everybody to watch it, they need to gpost it in more places, and give more links. I just clicked on the video link in the Twitter/X post that @GuanoLad posted, and was able to watch it just fine. And I don’t have an account for either X or TikTok. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1621 "2024-10-04T15:08:09Z")
You almost always have excellent critical analysis of polls and their limitations. Honestly I was half expecting you to respond with something I was missing about non poll facts on the ground. That maybe Trump’s outsourced GOTV game, using Turning Point Action, America First Works and America PAC (an Elon Musk-aligned super PAC) are much more effective at the job than we think, and the perceived Harris ground game advantage is a mirage … Happy to not hear that! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1622 "2024-10-04T15:09:43Z")
Some of don’t want to give Xitter any of our clicks. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2024, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571/1623 "2024-10-04T15:23:55Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > That’s because it’s a very common name for real local news programs. Which proves Umberto Eco’s adage: Reality is unrealistic. (_Travels in Hyperreality_) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=79) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election-no-more-on-guns/1004571.md?page=81)