# Karl Rove's Election Prediction Map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 14, 2012, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906 "2012-05-14T16:57:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/21 "2012-05-15T03:48:56Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It does make me suspicious that Rove lists Arizona as a “Toss-Up” state. Ain’t it solid red? [RCP](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) is listing it as a toss-up as well. I’d say it leans Romney, but if things swing toward Obama this fall, I’m betting it’s one of the first chips to fall. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/22 "2012-05-15T03:51:21Z")
> [@Algorithm](#): > > [RCP](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) is listing it as a toss-up as well. I’d say it leans Romney, but if things swing toward Obama this fall, I’m betting it’s one of the first chips to fall. NYT reported that Arizona and Virginia are toss-up states for 2012. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/23 "2012-05-15T04:09:09Z")
> [@Algorithm](#): > > [RCP](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) is listing it as a toss-up as well. I’d say it leans Romney, but if things swing toward Obama this fall, I’m betting it’s one of the first chips to fall. [The DoJ’s civil-rights lawsuit against Sheriff Arpaio](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=651579) could go some way towards winning Obama the Latino vote there, I daresay. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/24 "2012-05-15T04:15:18Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Put out by Karl Rove & Co., the map [shown here](http://rove.com/election) is an update on an earlier prediction map. The changes are that Iowa is projected as definite for Obama and Colorado is now leaning for Obama. And Arizona is a toss-up. Leaning is at least four percentage points in polling, a fairly significant lead. > > What’s most revealing is that the numbers claim that even if Romney wins every single electoral vote in every toss-up state, he still doesn’t win the election. He would be 22 electoral votes short. That’s why I’ve been predicting a narrow race leading to an Obama win. For Romney to pick up all six toss-up states plus two is a seriously difficult uphill battle. This map shows exactly the size of the turnaround needed. > > Again, this is Karl Rove’s website, from his business as a political consultant. It occurs to me that he’s giving out pessimistic data to stir up his base. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/25 "2012-05-15T06:13:22Z")
The sidebar on methodology makes me wonder how much worth these predictions have. > [@](#): > > Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results. Data that thin might as well come off a ouija board. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/26 "2012-05-15T15:11:13Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > It occurs to me that he’s giving out pessimistic data to stir up his base. No, [this is how you stir up the base](http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/54259): > [@](#): > > A 40-state sweep for Mitt Romney harkens only to Reagan’s victories in 1980 and 1984, but it will do. > > I base my prediction on several factors: > > 1. Mitt Romney did well in all the Republican primaries in blue states. This shows he has organized Republicans in those states, even though they are small in number. Judging by my experience in West Virginia, they tend to be just as conservative as the Republicans elsewhere — it is tougher to be a minority than a majority — but they are pragmatic. > > 2. Mitt Romney should put New England in play. Boston dominates that section of the country and the people in that area know him. He’s the Mormon Kennedy to them. He does not smoke or drink. Ah, there’s a religion that the Kennedy clan should consider. > > 3. Barack Obama is running scared. 4 years ago, he was a blank slate. Today his blackboard is filled with a lot of action and little results. The $787 billion stimulus did nothing. The $700 billion TARP went into bankers pockets. The GM bailout affected only 1 in 5 Americans who actually buy a GM or Chrysler. The Arab Spring backfired. He gave up on Iraq and we are being tossed out of Afghanistan. > > 4. Obamacare. Never has a presidential domestic policy been so despised. The Vietnam War was more popular in 1968 — and LBJ decided against another term. Think about what it means if Rove is truly fudging the numbers in favor of Romney. Even with a favorable push, he’s saying, Romney can’t win. How is that firing up the base? That’s telling them to stay home, save their time and money, and concentrate on 2016. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2012, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/27 "2012-05-15T15:20:55Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Think about what it means if Rove is truly fudging the numbers in favor of Romney. Even with a favorable push, he’s saying, Romney can’t win. How is that firing up the base? That’s telling them to stay home, save their time and money, and concentrate on 2016. It’s part of a narrative he’s pitching. He’ll change his tune in the summer and fall, saying we can win states X, Y, and Z, but only if everybody gets out and votes! ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/28 "2012-05-16T00:18:25Z")
You guys are talking like Rove is making an interpretation. Isn’t the map just a compilation of averages of most recent polling data for these states? I think unless he’s just totally fudging numbers there is only so much “narrative building” he could be doing. Rove the Political Consultant makes his money because people think he understands politics, I don’t believe it would help his business if he was seen to be making predictions based on some overarching “narrative.” At least according to his methodology statement it is an average of all polls within 30 days of the most recent poll, so unless he is lying (and in this scenario it would discredit his reputation in an area of personal importance to his pocketbook) I don’t see that he’s doing anything other than reporting information: > [@](#): > > For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on April 15, 2012, the average reflected on the map includes all polls conducted between March 15 and April 15, 2012. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states between a five-to-eight-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as “lean” for that candidate; states outside the eight-point lead are allocated to the respective party. Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/29 "2012-05-16T12:58:21Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > You guys are talking like Rove is making an interpretation. Isn’t the map just a compilation of averages of most recent polling data for these states? I think unless he’s just totally fudging numbers there is only so much “narrative building” he could be doing. There are a couple things he could do. One, label as “unknown” anything without recent polling data or at least label them more clearly. Two, not publish anything at all if it isn’t favorable to his candidate. The very fact he’s making this public, even if it’s completely true, means that he is probably doing this to increase the chances of his party winning. Which isn’t a bad thing but you need to take that into consideration. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/30 "2012-05-16T13:04:54Z")
He’s setting a low baseline (from the GOP POV) from which he’ll plot an upward trajectory with subsequent maps. Like anyone else, he can make a pretty good prediction on all but say 4 states. You can bet because it’s Rove, that there’s a strategic component to his map. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/31 "2012-05-16T13:43:57Z")
Yeah Rove doesn’t put toilet paper to his ass without thinking 14 steps ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/32 "2012-05-16T14:36:48Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > You guys are talking like Rove is making an interpretation. Isn’t the map just a compilation of averages of most recent polling data for these states? I think unless he’s just totally fudging numbers there is only so much “narrative building” he could be doing. Rove the Political Consultant makes his money because people think he understands politics, I don’t believe it would help his business if he was seen to be making predictions based on some overarching “narrative.” > > At least according to his methodology statement it is an average of all polls within 30 days of the most recent poll, so unless he is lying (and in this scenario it would discredit his reputation in an area of personal importance to his pocketbook) I don’t see that he’s doing anything other than reporting information: And how did he arrive at this particular methodology? Why did he use the average of all polls from within the last thirty days of the most recent poll instead of the last sixty days or the last fifteen days? Or the average of all polls or just the results of the most recent poll? You can bet all thse options were tested to see what the results would look like and then decisions were made about which polls and what range of dates were included. By choosing what data he used, he was able to greatly influence what outcome he achieved. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/33 "2012-05-16T15:28:13Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Yeah Rove doesn’t put toilet paper to his ass without thinking 14 steps ahead. What, you think a turd blossom just happens? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/34 "2012-05-16T16:16:48Z")
How can mere numbers capture this sort of [raw enthusiasm](http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/george-w-bush-im-for-mitt-romney/)? > [@](#): > > Mitt Romney has the support of George W. Bush. > > “I’m for Mitt Romney,” Bush told ABC News this morning as the doors of an elevator closed on him, after he gave a speech on human rights a block from his old home – the White House… ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/35 "2012-05-16T16:31:09Z")
Polls this early are essentially meaningless predictors. [Check out the 2008 polls (middle of the page) over time](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html). Obama has tons more money and I also think he has tons more campaigning skill and likability that Romney. I fully expect these things to work in Obama’s favor over the course of the campaign. Now if the economy takes a turn for the worse then all bets are off. But if the slow, but steady economic progress continues I just do not see Romney winning. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/36 "2012-05-16T16:46:23Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Polls this early are essentially meaningless predictors. [Check out the 2008 polls (middle of the page) over time](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html). > > Obama has tons more money and I also think he has tons more campaigning skill and likability that Romney. I fully expect these things to work in Obama’s favor over the course of the campaign. OTOH, Romney has on his side a lot of people who, in spite of everything, really, really, **really** want him . . . well, want the Republican to win; and some of those have a lot of money and power. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/37 "2012-05-16T17:03:10Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It does make me suspicious that Rove lists Arizona as a “Toss-Up” state. Ain’t it solid red? Remember, McCain is from Arizona. That had something to do with the fact that McCain won Arizona so handily (53% to 45%). But most of Arizona’s neighbors went blue (NM, CO, NV, CA), and continuing increase in the voting Latino population would suggest that Arizona is a plausible state for an Obama pickup if Obama’s doing well in general. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/38 "2012-05-16T17:14:30Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > OTOH, Romney has on his side a lot of people who, in spite of everything, really, really, **really** want him . . . well, want the Republican to win; and some of those have a lot of money and power. What’s interesting about the money situation is how much of Obama’s money comes from small donations versus how much Romney has gotten form those who have already maxed out their $2500. As [this](http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance/) shows, Obama has 10 times as much money on hand and has gotten only 19% from big time donors as opposed to Romney’s 57%. It seems to me that Obama will have a much easier time continuing to raise money as thousands of folks kick in $10 and $50 donations a shot. The Obama team has this down to a science. Of course there is the SuperPAC money, which could be the equalizer, but my guess is Obama will have a significant money advantage throughout the campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/39 "2012-05-16T18:07:07Z")
It’s not hard to see Romney winning all those toss-up states. It would only take something that boosts him 3-4 points nationally. Contagion from the euro crisis could do the trick alone. The important thing to remember are that those toss-up states are not independent events. Winning all of them is not like calling six coin tosses correctly. Furthermore state polls generally tend to lag national polls and it will be interesting to see how the recent national tightening affects the state polls. At this point the latter are probably not frequent enough to be reliable not to mention the fact that many swing voters will not make up their minds about Romney till the conventions and debates. I am also not sure how the gay marriage issue will play out in Ohio. The issue was critical to Rove’s mobilization strategy in 2004 and it’s not crazy to think it could boost Romney by a couple of points on election day. Having said all this I do think the battleground favors Obama. It was always clear just by looking at the 2008 results and checking an electoral map. Romney will probably have to win either Colorado which Obama won by 8 points or New Hampshire which he won by 10 points. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2012, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906/40 "2012-05-16T18:15:47Z")
Just to give an example of how unreliable these state polls are here is [Colorado](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html)from RCP. The latest poll is almost a month old and shows a tie. The one before that shows a 13 point Obama lead. The other polls seem to be from last year. The bottom line is no one really knows what is happening in Colorado right now and it’s probably the second most important state after Ohio. I think Obama will win it in the end but that’s not based on hard polling evidence. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/karl-roves-election-prediction-map/621906.md?page=3)