# Kim Jong-il Is Dead **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 19, 2011, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705 "2011-12-19T03:10:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/202 "2011-12-20T21:14:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Of the Dear Great Successor, Kim Jong-un > It is (whispered) he might be a wrong ‘un > Finds it all okey-dokey > To slam his bulgoki > To a Hyundai, with passion and longin’! I’m not going to Google slamming bulgoki but if it means what I think it means I wonder if you might have something here… Jong Un has been to Switzerland. He has lived in a nation where most people are prosperous and happy and no police-state dictatorship was necessary. He’s seen thriving retail culture, traffic jams, criticism of the local government. He knows that (non-nuclear) nation is strong and has good relations with the neighbors. So is it possible that he might seek to recreate some of that in NK? Is it possible he might realize that his neighbors don’t really give much of a shit about his country at all, beyond keeping a wary eye in case of unscheduled craziness? A year ago I would have said such was impossible but reading about Myanmar and how the President there is putting reforms into place gives me some hope. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/203 "2011-12-20T21:28:05Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Jong Un has been to Switzerland. He has lived in a nation where most people are prosperous and happy and no police-state dictatorship was necessary. He’s seen thriving retail culture, traffic jams, criticism of the local government. He knows that (non-nuclear) nation is strong and has good relations with the neighbors. So is it possible that he might seek to recreate some of that in NK? He’s a child of privilege who was surrounded by children of privilege. I found the Switzerland thing interesting when I first heard about it, but I wouldn’t hold out much hope for him just based on that. I hope things improve over there, but it’s hard to even imagine what a good outcome looks like. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/204 "2011-12-20T21:43:29Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > He’s a child of privilege who was surrounded by children of privilege. Same as **most** of the world leaders. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/205 "2011-12-20T21:46:16Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Same as **most** of the world leaders. Of course. I’m just saying that it doesn’t mean anything about how he’ll run North Korea. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/206 "2011-12-20T21:49:11Z")
Just to be clear, I was never trying to excuse the human rights abuses. Internal abuse was never the result of the foreign policy challenges. My point is that the way ahead is unclear, and rather dismally challenging. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/207 "2011-12-20T22:06:59Z")
Well, we’ll see if it’s true what they say: the first generation conquers the country, the second carries on the traditions, the third fucks it all up. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/208 "2011-12-20T22:38:58Z")
Well, in this case, the first generation screwed up the country, the second generation screwed it up even more. What’s the outlook that the third generation won’t continue that proud tradition? ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/209 "2011-12-20T22:53:46Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I would say that it would be similarly ineffective to say, “Oh, you poor North Korea, how you have been the victim of the Cold War! I don’t like what you have done, but I see now how the United States, the Soviets and China pushed you into becoming a country run by a cult of personality with a human rights record that would make Mao blush! Now that we have embraced the quasi-dependency theory dogma of how North Korea has toiled at the mercy of more powerful countries, now let us treat each other as respected equals!” Being a creation or a product is not the same as being a “victim.” Sexual abusers are often experienced abuse in their own childhood. This doesn’t make what they did less heinous, but it does gives us some ideas of how to approach and treat then. But yeah, Congo might have had a different story if Lumumba hadn’t ended up dead in the back of a CIA car. The Cold War put a lot of nations on some very fucked up tracks. There are reasons why the world’s current crop of “fucked up nations” are where they are- it’s not just that people in certain areas of the world happen to be more evil. There are circumstances in history that allow evil leaders to flourish. Seriously. reading the reactions from various states, every one who isn’t North Korea’s explicit friend harped on the nukes. It’s not going to happen. North Korea has eyes and saw Iraq and Afghanistan. Why would we think they’d even consider ending their nuclear program when they know for a fact that they are easily next in line? They are not justified, but given that any power structure’s goal is its own survival, there really isn’t any other option that is acceptable from their perspective. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/210 "2011-12-20T23:12:09Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Well, we’ll see if it’s true what they say: the first generation conquers the country, the second carries on the traditions, the third fucks it all up. > [@Monty](#): > > Well, in this case, the first generation screwed up the country, the second generation screwed it up even more. What’s the outlook that the third generation won’t continue that proud tradition? Well, if the principle **Bryan Ekers** mentioned is true, the new guy will lead NK to freedom and prosperity by sheer accident. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/211 "2011-12-20T23:12:47Z")
> [@jjimm](#): > > And they’ve arrived: [get yer horrifying expressions of grief here](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-16241242). The men in that video look like they are laughing to me…and isn’t this a case of “You’d better look sad for the cameras, or else!”? ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/212 "2011-12-20T23:15:14Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > He’s a child of privilege who was surrounded by children of privilege. I found the Switzerland thing interesting when I first heard about it, but I wouldn’t hold out much hope for him just based on that. I hope things improve over there, but it’s hard to even imagine what a good outcome looks like. Heck, even if the rhetoric against foreign nations and their imperialistic designs against the “People’s Republic” are ratcheted down a couple notches, maybe most if not all North Koreans can actually get a decent meal now and again. The population eating would be a start. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2011, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/213 "2011-12-20T23:51:55Z")
BTW, the SK government seems very embarrassed that its spies did not know Kim was dead before it was announced on NK television. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/214 "2011-12-21T06:52:05Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > Well, in this case, the first generation screwed up the country, the second generation screwed it up even more. What’s the outlook that the third generation won’t continue that proud tradition? Well, if your last dictator was as crazy as Kim Jong-il, you’ve at least got regression to the mean working for you. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/215 "2011-12-21T15:50:13Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > The men in that video look like they are laughing to me… BBC interviwed some sort of prominent defector in Seoul who said that in 1994 – he was in NK at that time – many of the people were laughing to make it look like they were crying. Said some people had to pinch themselves hard to obtain that little extra suffering look. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/216 "2011-12-21T20:06:41Z")
> [@fluiddruid](#): > > I suppose but when I say cult of personality I mean it quite literally. They treated him as if he were a god – in very literal terms. Someone like that has great power and I haven’t read anything that indicates that he was a figurehead in any way. I doubt he was a figurehead but he didn’t command the same loyalty that his father did and his son will command even less. > [@Frank](#): > > Which political faction in North Korea supports reunification? All of them. They all desire a unified Korea under communist rule. > [@Frank](#): > > Nonsense. “Pretty much everybody” would have led to reunification some decades ago. Yeah but the North kloreans couldn’t get the South Koreans to agree to surrendering to them. > [@TruCelt](#): > > One young man tells the story of the happiest day of his childhood (he was born at the camp) when he found a few grains of corn in the shit of a horse and wiped them off and ate them. He described his joy at finding such bounty. North Korean defectors are used to telling authority what they want to hear. I wouldn’t even be so sure that he was in a camp, how the heck did he get out of the camp and then manage to leave the country? Exaggeration for effect is not unfamiliar to them. There was a restaurant here in Virginia that was run by defectors from a North Korean dance troupe (it was wierd, they would run out of things like soda and food by 8 pm). > [@Alessan](#): > > If you send over grain the people in power will use some of it to feed their loyalists and hoard the rest. Nothing will reach the people who actually need it. Drop shipments. > [@Death\_of\_Rats](#): > > Good lord, I have not seen overacting like that since the last time someone passed near a soccer player. If you had to cry on command while standing at attention, you might not do much better. > [@YogSosoth](#): > > Harold and Kumar go to Kim Jong Il’s funeral? YES!!! > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > And a more general question occurs to me. The leader, and his inner circle, must know the unbelievable degree of bullshit they are shoveling. The seven-holes-in-one, and so many other things, they have to know those are lies, right? Meanwhile, the people at the bottom of the pyramid, the farmers, doctors, and such, appear to buy into it all wholeheartedly. (Although **Wesley Clark** ’s post calls that into question.) So my question is, is there a sharp dividing line, a wall of secrecy between knowing everything and knowing nothing; or is it something more gradual? As these tales of the Leaders exploits or the country’s good fortune get concocted and spread to the masses, does each person believe them a little more, or is there a defined point where they go from bogus to gospel? Remember things were not always as bad as they were during teh famine and they have not stayed that bad. You can get people to accept pretty deplorable conditions if you tell them that their country needs them to make those sacrifices and besides, its all America’s fault. > [@even\_sven](#): > > …That aside, the military buildup does actually make sense from the North Korean perspective. They’ve had the world’s largest military at their doorstep, with everything they have aimed at them…_for fifty years_. No country is going to chill, or even have a chance to evolve normally, in that situation. Indeed, from their perspective they see the military buildup as the only way to survive in a hostile neighborhood. It’s also important to acknowledge that in those early days, nobody knew which way it was going to go. North Korea’s development indicators were on par with South Koreas as late as the early 80s. In the 60s and 70s, South Korea was a third-world style light dictatorship, and North Korea was rapidly industrializing. There were plenty of moments in history where people credibly believed that North Korea might actually be the bright new future. Israel also finds itself ina pretty hostile neighborhood. And yet they are able to get their people to accept sacrifice and a large military without trampling on the rights of their non-arab population. So, yeah, maybe you can understand their militarism but it was never necessary to let their people starve unless maintaining power at the top became more important than the welfare of the country. That is where democracy seems to consistently outperform despotism. The good of the few can only outweigh the good of the whole for so long. > [@](#): > > Fast forward to modern times- things didn’t get to their gnarliest until the famine in the 1990- which was a mix of some really horrible policy-making, the collapse of Communism and the economic system that allowed North Korea to survive as a connected nation, and massive flooding. Since then, a lot has changed. Cell phones have come through, outside news is mildly more accessible, and nobody can ignore the flood of cheap Chinese goods. Small scale private commerce has been somewhat decriminalized and there is local trade in goods, including copious goods from China, which people have pretty much realized is a nice place and not the starving hellhole they were brought up to think it was. International trade has increased significantly. The prison camps are there, but the peak is long passed. I always said that MTV won the cold war for us. Now we have the internet. > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Aggressive regimes don’t just admit to being aggressive regimes; they have to explain how they are entitled to act as they do. The leaders may have even convinced themselves. > > In this case, it’s what I call “preemptive retaliation”. Not to derail the thread but some people might say that 1967 was an act of preemptive retaliation as well. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The one major trump card North Korea has over the rest of the world is that they are willing to cause large scale human suffering on civilians (witness how they treat their own people). They have thousands of pieces of artillery pointed at Seoul, which would cause thousands of deaths, and possibly trillions in property damage (I think they’ve got over 10k pieces of artillery pointed at Seoul, and I have no idea what kind of warheads but I know they have various chem and bio weapons, who knows what kind of explosive and incendiary warheads they have). They also have commando forces willing to go into South Korea, Japan and possibly the US to engage in terrorism. They have really not got a lot to fear from the rest of the world, the world isn’t going to risk a war that kills tens of thousands (possibly millions) of civilians. Yes, not giving a shit gives you a lot of options. Not giving a shit and having nukes makes everyone behave very politely around you. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Possibly, but you don’t need the entire army to function you just need the artillery and special forces to operate effectively. > > That is the line of argument I’ve read, that once North Korean soldiers realize how much they’ve been lied to about the outside world (if war breaks out) they will mutiny or surrender. But you still have 10k pieces of artillery pointed at a civilian heavy city which will give the north major leverage. The artillery pointed at Seoul wouldn’t last much more than an hour, but in that time they could shoot off a millions shells. > [@TruCelt](#): > > Not just the US/South Korea, but on the other side, China. It’s actually one of the worst strategic placements imaginable. There is no way to go that will please both sides. . . I think they decided which side they were willing to disappoint a long time ago. > [@DWMarch](#): > > Is it possible he might realize that his neighbors don’t really give much of a shit about his country at all, beyond keeping a wary eye in case of unscheduled craziness? A year ago I would have said such was impossible but reading about Myanmar and how the President there is putting reforms into place gives me some hope. The police state is about the only way to keep a country like North Korea under control. > [@even\_sven](#): > > … reading the reactions from various states, every one who isn’t North Korea’s explicit friend harped on the nukes. It’s not going to happen. North Korea has eyes and saw Iraq and Afghanistan. Why would we think they’d even consider ending their nuclear program when they know for a fact that they are easily next in line? They are not justified, but given that any power structure’s goal is its own survival, there really isn’t any other option that is acceptable from their perspective. They saw what happened to Qaddafi. What possible benefit do they think they could get from giving up nukes that wouldn’t largely be enjoyed by the general population. The folks in power are pretty well fed and live pretty good lives. On the flip side they see what is happening with Pakistan and it isn’t hard to conclude that their nukes are providing with them with more than a little bit of immunity. On the gripping hand, they see that Israel’s nukes has reduced itsneghbors to sabre rattlig and even then, just mild sabre rattling. Why in the world would they ever give up their nuclear program? > [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > The men in that video look like they are laughing to me…and isn’t this a case of “You’d better look sad for the cameras, or else!”? Probably. There is a strata of north korean society that lives considerably better than the rest of north korea and they might legitimately believe that the current situation is the best thing for them. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/217 "2011-12-21T20:16:27Z")
I imagine most of the tears are real- not really out of what we’d call greif, but out of fear and anxiety for what is coming next. Picture all of the crying after 9/11. Most people weren’t exceptionally mournful for the specific people who lost their lives, but they were shaken by the attack and the uncertainty it brought. > [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Israel also finds itself ina pretty hostile neighborhood. And yet they are able to get their people to accept sacrifice and a large military without trampling on the rights of their non-arab population. So, yeah, maybe you can understand their militarism but it was never necessary to let their people starve unless maintaining power at the top became more important than the welfare of the country. That is where democracy seems to consistently outperform despotism. The good of the few can only outweigh the good of the whole for so long. . And if the US and the Western world suddenly collapsed and evolved into a mafia state with tinges of Islamo-Fascism, leaving Israel basically the lone outpost of freedom in the world, do you think that Israel would be able to continue the way that it is? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/218 "2011-12-21T20:29:24Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > I imagine most of the tears are real.. They live in fucking North Korea. I don’t think they have a lot of trouble bursting into tears. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/219 "2011-12-21T20:47:39Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > The artillery pointed at Seoul wouldn’t last much more than an hour, but in that time they could shoot off a millions shells. That makes quite a deterrent, doesn’t it? > [@](#): > > They saw what happened to Qaddafi. What possible benefit do they think they could get from giving up nukes that wouldn’t largely be enjoyed by the general population. The folks in power are pretty well fed and live pretty good lives. > > On the flip side they see what is happening with Pakistan and it isn’t hard to conclude that their nukes are providing with them with more than a little bit of immunity. > > On the gripping hand, they see that Israel’s nukes has reduced itsneghbors to sabre rattlig and even then, just mild sabre rattling. > > Why in the world would they ever give up their nuclear program? It’s a bargaining chip. Not a deterrent. The North already has a powerful deterrent – the fact that the 11th most populous city is within artillery range. Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles do not make North Korea more secure: the sale of those technologies brings in much-needed cash and are useful levers to pull to try to extract things out of the United States. Just as they have in the past, they will continue to play games with their nuclear programs (“We’ve suspended all activities! Oops, they are back on again!”) if the new Kim regime is anything like the former ones. I’ll bet it is. But I’ll also bet that the North Korean leadership knows that nuclear weapons are not essential to their deterrence policies. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/220 "2011-12-21T22:04:32Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > His son is too young and inexperienced and doesn’t have the web of family and allies his father does. Well, ok, it is the same Family, as one of his aunts (Jong-Il’s sister) is married to the second most powerful man in the country… You mean Kim Kyong-Hui, [the mean drunk “evil sister”](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2010/09/28/north-koreas-kim-kyong-hui-powerful-sister-promoted-in-shakeup.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Cheat%20Sheet&utm_campaign=cheatsheet_morning&cid=newsletter%3Bemail%3Bcheatsheet_morning)?: [QUOTE=Philip Shenon] Korea scholars and diplomats who specialize in Korean affairs say they have no particular reason to doubt reports in the press in South Korea and Japan that Mrs. Kim arranged a traffic accident in June 2009 in which a rival party official was killed…They also have no reason, they say, to question reports that she is a raging alcoholic whose relationship with her own children has been poisonous. Last year, a South Korean newspaper reported that she had been hospitalized due to complications from alcoholism, possibly falling at one point into a coma and suffering brain damage. According to South Korean reports, her only daughter committed suicide in France in 2006—a decision some news accounts linked to her frayed ties with her mother. These press accounts have, on occasion, referred to Mrs. Kim as “evil.” [/quote] I guess this means it’s time to call in James Bond. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2011, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705/221 "2011-12-21T22:05:14Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > And if the US and the Western world suddenly collapsed and evolved into a mafia state with tinges of Islamo-Fascism, leaving Israel basically the lone outpost of freedom in the world, do you think that Israel would be able to continue the way that it is? Are you saying that Israel had had superpower sponsorship where NK has not? Do you think Israel would start doing to its people what NK did to its people if the US decided to cut them loose? I think Israel politicians generally do things that they believe will be in the best interests of non-arab Israelis. Its the product of being an open democratic society. I’m just saying that you can be militaristic without standing on the collective throats of your population (you might have to stand on the throats of some arab refugees but you don’t have to stand on the throats of your own people). > [@Ravenman](#): > > It’s a bargaining chip. Not a deterrent. The North already has a powerful deterrent – the fact that the 11th most populous city is within artillery range. Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles do not make North Korea more secure: the sale of those technologies brings in much-needed cash and are useful levers to pull to try to extract things out of the United States. Just as they have in the past, they will continue to play games with their nuclear programs (“We’ve suspended all activities! Oops, they are back on again!”) if the new Kim regime is anything like the former ones. A credible threat to Seoul is one thing. A credible nuclear threat to Tokyo and Seoul is another. You will never get me to believe that north korea will attack Seoul because the US would destroy North Korea. But if North korea also presented a credible nuclear threat to Tokyo then they can destroy one and deter retaliation with their threat to destroy the other. Or do you think that either Tokyo or Seoul would be willing to take the hit to allow the US to exact retribution for attacking the other? Yeah crazy, I know but people have thought out these scenarios and having a nuke with missile technology makes the threat more credible because the US could not retaliate on behalf of the victim. > [@](#): > > I’ll bet it is. But I’ll also bet that the North Korean leadership knows that nuclear weapons are not essential to their deterrence policies. I think that having nukes gives you a lot of wiggle room and negotiating power. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kim-jong-il-is-dead/606705.md?page=12)