Ah, personal attacks in great dsbates. Always so much fun.
And yet more honest than some other approaches used here.
Modhat: Just a reminder to all. Attack the posts and not the posters in GD (and P&E).
I see nothing here that rising up to specific mod action being required though. But please make the posts less about Sam_Stone and more about the content of his posts.
I’m still waiting for Sam to cite that the authors of the first stimulus thought it would hurt the economy.
I never said that. I said that they admitted that after the ‘stimulus’ period and the fiscal effect was gone, there would remain a small long-term drag on subsequent years due to the increase in the debt and debt servicing costs.
This should be self-evident, unless you think the $780 million dollars was just free money.
The point was not that the stimulus overall was negative - it’s possible that it saved enough jobs and infrastructure that the GDP gains from that wouldn’t be erased for a long time. It’s also possible that the stimulus didn’t do much, and so the long term drag due to its cost will make the whole thing a net negative.
You’re welcome to search for that youreelf. Try ‘Christina Romer ARRA forecast’ or something like that. Her original graph of the effect of ARRA showed the new baseline after the recovery as being slightly lower, but she felt that the gains from fiscal multipliers during the recovery period were worth it.
Unfortunately, the results of the ARRA didn’t come anywhere close to her models.
But the fact that there is a long-term drag on the economy from debt and debt repayment should not need a cite, as it should be obvious. Right now the fiscal effects of ARRA are long gone, but the U.S. is still paying the debt servicing costs, and will continue to do so for a long, long, time. And they are not inconsiderable: At 1.5% interest (close to the current 10 year T-bill), that’s about 12 billion per year the U.S. has to pay in some way. And it will have to keep paying it likely for decades, since no one seems to care about debt reduction anymore.
Biden’s 1.9 trillion, if financed at those rates, is going to cost about $30 billion per year forevermore. That’s more than the budget of NASA being paid put every year for the forseeable future, just for that one bill. If he adds a $3 trillion dollar Green New Deal to that, the combination of those will be a drag on the U.S. economy for decades, if they don’t trigger a financial panic or collapse of the dollar first.
We will just repeal Trumps 1.9 trillion tax giveaway then. Thanks!
Gee gosh thanks for the not-cite. At least now I know what stimulus you meant, which was a question I asked you up-thread: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The one that was far too small for the moment, the one that was 1/3 tax cuts as a sop to Republicans who turned around and voted against it. Gee, I wonder why it wasn’t as effective as it could be, cutting taxes during an employment and debt crisis. Of course it fell short, as designed by the GOP. That stimulus.
The truth is that the rich benefit both from low taxes and asset bubbles. It’s a false canard that this is an either/or proposition.
Still on your Austrian Economics high horse are ya now?
If you think the formation of asset bubbles is an Austrian theory, someone better tell Paul Krugman. Or sorry, the sainted Dr. Krugman. Or Ben Bernanke, or Janet Yellen, or Jerome Powell. Austrians, all, apparently. Or the financial press, which has been talking ‘bubble territory’ for a long time now.
Or is it your contention that the rich don’t disproportiinally benefit when stocks go up?
Sam, can you link us to your threads and post showing how terrible bad for the economy the three giveaways that trump and the GOP did? Or is it just this one, Bidens one that is so bad?
I mean I see some of your post here mention those, but did you post that the time they were passed?
Once again, you are making this about me instead of the content of my post. And I find it ridiculous that I should have to run around constantly searching for my own past comments to refute the constant claims that I am a hypocrite or something else bad.
So let’s get this clear. If you want fo accuse me of hypocrisy or any other personal failing:
A) Do the fucking work yourself.
B) Do it in the pit where it belongs, and where it won’t hijack yet another thread with a conversation about what a horrible person Sam Stone is.
To save you a bit of time because I am feeling generous, I have never said a positive thing about any of Trump’s deficits. But knock yourself out.
Here’s what some prominent economists think about the prospects for inflation &c…
Modhat: Sam is correct, focus on the thread please and not try to play gotcha with Sam. Sam, I understand your frustration, but please ignore the silly requests or dial back your replies.