En Banc oral arguments were held yesterday. Audio can be heard here (case # 14-1945).
I found the lawyer for the plaintiffs (arguing against the ban) to be not as good as I would have liked. It seemed the judges asking him questions were more aggressive than the ones questioning the defendants. A couple things I noted upon first listen:
At around 26:00, in the context of talking about if a modification of firearm turns it into a banned firearm then the accessory used to modify may be banned, one of the justices asserts that silencers are banned and doesn’t change the functionality of the firearm. Of course, silencers are not in fact banned.
At around 28:45, in the context of comparing relative danger for various weapon platforms, the plaintiff’s lawyer describes how handguns are used in vastly disproportionate amounts for various types of crime, but one of the judges interrupts and says that that doesn’t count, what counts is what’s used in mass shootings. This seems wrong headed to craft policy around infrequent events. It also seems wrong factually.
At around 58:00, the defense lawyer for the State talks about the two prong analysis for 2nd amendment jurisprudence and compares to similar tests for the 1st amendment. This supports the idea that there are 1st amendment analogues when conducting 2nd amendment analysis.
At around 59:00, the defense lawyer for the State mentions that if a government were to ban a large subset of handguns, then that would likely be subject to strict scrutiny. This was contrasting banning all handguns which fails under any scrutiny. This made me thnk of the large subset of handguns that are banned in CA as a result of the roster and microstamping requirement that is currently impossible to meet.
If I had to predict, I’d say that the en banc court upholds the ban. I suspect they find similar to the Woolard court that the 2nd amendment is implicated, though not severely. As a result, intermediate scrutiny applies and the ban stands under intermediate scrutiny. I think that would be completely wrong at every level of the 2nd prong of the analysis, but that would be my expectation.
Under intermediate scrutiny, the AWB should fall. Banning the most popular rifles in the country is not narrowly tailored. There must also be a reasonable fit between the government’s restriction and its intended purpose. Since these weapons are rarely used in crime or for unlawful purposes, the ban is not a reasonable fit.