Yeah, as others have said, I don’t think anyone wants re-unification so it is hardly inevitable. NK’s implosion may be likely but I am betting China has some plans for that eventuality.
I think there’s still a strong cultural connection between the two Koreas. And as you note, it’s not just an issue of counting the cost of reunification. South Korea will also be counting the cost of not reunifying. Having an aggressive enemy on its border is a major expense for South Korea. If they’re given an opportunity to resolve that problem, they will want to take it regardless of any related humanitarian impulses.
Would this work? Granted, I don’t know the logistics, but what if instead of absorbing refugees, the SK government simply sets up shop in Kim’s abandoned palaces and rules NK from NK? Keep every NK citizen in NK, don’t let a significant amount of them travel to SK or China, and use the existing infrastructure to slowly build up the country to a decent level.
I’m sure tons of ditches needs to be dug. They can spend time tearing down monuments to the Kims too. Lots of manual labor and this time, no threat of death! Of course they’ll have to import some items to NK, but grow or manufacture as much of the raw materials in NK. I’m sure with such a place, there are a lot of unused land that’s just itching to be picked up be developers. If we make NK into a self-contained country, it won’t need to severely impact its neighbors much at all
Good point. I think the fact that South Korea (not sure about North Korea) has a ‘Ministry of Reunification’ shows that they do want to be united again.
At this point, I would place North Korea under receivership, so to speak. Keep it intact as an entity, but run as a client/developing state under South Korean control. Sign a treaty with the Chinese stating that no US troops will be allowed north of the current DMZ, and that all US troops will be removed from the peninsula within 30 years. Then organize North Korea as one big reconstruction/re-education camp. No, not the evil communist/fascist version, but rather, where things are slowly brought up to speed with the rest of the world, people are re-trained for real jobs and real activities, internet and TV is brought in to educate and inform the people, and their entire infrastructure is rebuilt from the ground up. It’d probably take a couple of hundred thousand South Koreans and others working for 7-10 years, but it could be done.
I think a simpler system would be to reunite the country and then set up the needed public support system to raise the north back up to acceptable standards. But only have that support system operating in the north.
Having their source of food, heat, and shelter in the north will keep most northerners from immediately fleeing to the south. But the possibility of going south would still be there. Those northerners who think they could do better in the south due to special skills or family connections would be able to make a go of it.
If, despite China’s efforts to prop it up, the NK government completely collapses, I can see China pushing hard for a reunification movement. A unified Korea means the bulk of those refugees will be going south, not north, and I’d bet China would be willing to throw a lot of money at the Korean government to make it happen.
How can you possibly think that China would give money to an American ally to help take over the land of their ally? I think a few Chinese troops moving in to “stabilize” NK is a lot more likely than giving money to SK should NK truly collapse.
Perhaps not, although the EU and South Korea have recently signed a free trade agreement, which according to Wikipedia is the second largest in the world. The EU is one of South Koreas largest trading partners and European countries are also the largest investor in South Korea. A unified Korea would also up North Korea for European investments. I think that’s a pretty important factor.
In fact most of the nations in Asia, incl. China and India, have the EU as their largest trading partner. I’d say that’s pretty important, although of course military speaking, Europe – outside Russia - has little interest in Asia. Apart from military hardware exports.
I just don’t see China willing to accept a US client state on their border. As things are presently, I don’t think the aid China gives NK is that burdensome.
This is very much the unstated non-secret of South Korean politics.
When I was living there (late 90s) the sentiment among the young people was not just pro-unification, but also angry because they thought that while SK’s politicians and business elites were saying publically they wanted closer ties and even reunification, in reality they wanted no part of it. You may be familiar with the traditional student rioting – this is one of the original causes. My impression was that they were right – though wrong in thinking it made a difference, since the Norks are so batshit crazy it didn’t really matter what the SK elites thought.
It’s important to understand that there were many, many families that were divided by the war, and that many in the south know they have cousins and great-uncles and the like starving. It’s the most Confucian country in the world, and you can’t say things like “ehhh … my cousin is not my problem” out loud.
Wow, if NK actually went tits up peacefully, I’d suggest approaching China with something like this. It even gives plenty of room to move. I doubt NK is going to go quietly, though.
I suppose I may be overestimating the impact of reunification, and underestimating the cost of that border.
Ah… There’s the missing piece in my head. I wasn’t aware quite how many families were split by this. I didn’t expect the number to be quite that impressive. Now I think I understand it a little better. Thanks to both of you. 
But it’s still basically China sitting back and letting the Western backed/influenced South to take over. I just don’t see how anyone can think China would go for it. A 30 yr pull out deal may be “short term” in their style of thinking, but they aren’t silly enough to think 30 yrs isn’t long enough for it to get pulled the wrong way for them.
The cost of maintaining the border is one borne fairly heavily by the US and deciding to reunify and declare neutrality is going to upset very happy trade situations. Just don’t see it.
For what it’s worth, a somewhat similar process was undertaken in Japan after World War II. However, I seem to recall that the Emperor himself was made to support the process thus giving it legitimacy - I can’t visualise a scenario where Kim Jong-Un would be similarly co-operative.
Interesting. I wonder if, as time goes on and people who were alive before the war die out, this will change. When there is virtually no-one left in South Korea who knows a North Korean, will the appeal of reunification wane?
Wane, yes. Already is. Go away, not for a long time.
Again, Korean culture is still pretty traditional in a lot of ways. Your grandfather may be dead, but he told you his older brother was up north, and word was passed along in 1993 that he was very ill, but also that he had two grown sons who had their own families… that kind of connection still matters.
At the Korean Thanksgiving/harvest festival – their biggest holiday – it’s traditional to visit the ancestral graves; at the very least, the grave of the the parent of the oldest generation – i.e. if grandpa is alive, we all go visit the grave of great-grandfather, trim the weeds, and often have a picnic there. There are still families for whom that grave is in the North.
Yes, I think cultural differences are important here. South Korea went from an economic backwater to a First World country in a generation (+/-)-- has any European country done that? And I agree that, given the opportunity, the South would welcome the North.
I’m not sure about the whole China situation, per Monty’s post, but I think sometimes these things happen so fast no one sees it coming-- they develop a momentum practically out of nowhere. I remember when the first cracks were felt in the Iron Curtain thinking that yeah, maybe East Germany or Hungary will cut loose, but Czechoslovakia? Never!
That’s very interesting, because my conversations with my young Korean friends matches the poll information quoted earlier. They were vaguely in favor of reunification happening at some point, in theory, but that was about it. I guess a lot has changed in the last 20 years.
Not all of the divided families were divided during the Korean War. Some of them were divided thanks to North Korea kidnapping South Koreans. Of course, there are also a number of kidnapped Japanese held in North Korea, but nobody’s considering “reunification with Japan”.
Probably has. The student unrest peaked in the 70s/80s. The SK government has become more democratic and transparent since then, the NK government has become ever more obviously nuts, and the students have become more realistic.