Your post is correct. I was stating that between NK and SK only (no allies), NK has always had the more powerful military, but I think the tide is turning now towards SK. Once SK realizes this (under the right President, who might vocalize it too much), it will get interesting.
Obviously, NK hasn’t tried to make a united Korea b/c of US/ally involvement.
If you think SK has been more powerful all along, then I would not agree.
(Good to post with you again, I’ve been traveling and just got settled in).
I might be mistaken, but … you seem to be assuming that the blocks are a completely flat line with no width or depth.
According to Google, 18,000 cubic centimeters equals the far more conservative estimate of just 0.018 cubic meters, which means they’d need to volley the city some 500 times before dropping as much explosives as Hiroshima.
Admittedly math is not my forte so I’ll trust you on this. Not surprised I got it wrong but I still think the point is made. Those artillery tubes can lay down a lot of hurt. Especially if you consider that an artillery shell almost certainly have a good deal more than a cubic centimeter of explosives. If we went to 10 cubic centimeters we have only 50 shots per tube to equal Hiroshima. If they fire once per minute that is less than an hour. In a surprise attack I doubt SK could respond in that time to make a difference.
Oh, I know about the artillery. I’m just saying that I don’t think the Koreans have been able to make a bomb small enough yet. The early versions of nukes tend to be a bit bulky. S. Korea has some really nice seaports. I’d be concerned.
Hmm. My calculations (and data speculations) would be slightly different. And Mind you IANAME (I am not an military expert). Let’s go metric for the sake of simplicity:
18000 canons. We do not know their size, but let we say they shot 50 kg shells with 10 kilo worth of tnt each. That is 180 tons of tnt per salvo. That is 0.18 Kt. About 80 salvos would deliver enough tnt for one Hiroshima bomb. With one salvo a minute, Seul would be pretty much destroyed in hour and a half.
Of course, anyone can correct me, as you can see I pulled some nubers out of my head.
China thinks N Korea is a basket case and nut job. Having Kim with a nuke and delivery capability that could reach Beijing isn’t exactly a tempting proposition.
Also let’s not be glib. “Giving” NK to China would upset the status quo in Asia immensely and ***not ***be a good thing.
As for China selling off their $400 billion in treasuries, keep in perspective that the US government is going to sell approximately $3.25 *trillion *in new treasuries this year. China simply does not hold enough US debt for any kind of real blackmail power.
I don’t think the comparison is a good one. Thousands of artillery shells that add up to one Hiroshima bomb would be much more effective than the Hiroshima bomb, I would think. The Hiroshima bomb concentrated all that power in one small spot. The power that went into destroying buildings at ground zero was massive overkill, leaving less power available to destroy buildings farther away. But if you could take all that power from the Hiroshima bomb and spread it out over 605 square kilometers, delivering more or less explosives to a specific area depending on the type of construction there, I think you could do a lot more damage.
[/WAG]
Granted, the artillery shells don’t have the terror factor or the radiation poisoning of a nuke.
How so? Having China (or more likely a puppet government answerable to China) where NK is now would be worse for who except the current ruling regime in NK?
What spurred this latest saber rattling? Seems like, out of nowhere, they tested a nuke and now want Korean War II.
How does the UN factor into this? I thought the war was between the UN and NK, not the US and NK. How do things stand half a century later? What freedom of movement do the US troops have there if attacked? Are other nations under the auspices of the UN forces obliged to follow the US lead?
The best numbers I can get on the artillery is from here.
So, with 50kg of TNT per 170mm round seeming reasonable, it does not seem like they’d see 180kt in Seoul in the first hour. They might see it by the end of the day if the DPRK’s assumed blitzkrieg plan works. I don’t think it would though. Those attacks worked for the Nazis when they were better equipped, trained, and more mobile than their enemies. The DPRK attack would also lack surprise if it happens in the current situation. The timing of the precipitating event, searching a DPRK ship, seems to be controlled by ourselves. If we wait until we are prepared for the attack, it might be more like the Nazis heading straight for the Maginot line. That would have been messy, far from a vacation for anyone involved, but probably not the rout that it was. If they notice or imagine we are shadowing a ship that we plan to board later, and decide the party is over on the own, the South could be surprised.
Even so, I would not want to be in the first 10-15km from the DMZ if we do decide to search a ship. 12000 artillery pieces are nothing to sniff at. I assume they will be used to make as clear a path as possible for the infantry, and then begin moving themselves.
No , if they wanted Korean war 2 ,they would have simply started it in their own good time. Part of what said in the media , is that this is primarily a succession issue, either his roneryness is already dead or gone to far. Popping the nuke would let the pretenders to the throne know who has the football.