# Kucinich Is Right on Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 24, 2012, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921 "2012-05-24T05:36:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/61 "2012-05-25T15:22:37Z")
And a short history as a theocracy. So here we are again. If you agree that we don’t know their mindset, let’s agree we don’t know their mindset. In the meantime, no, Kucinich is nowhere near right on this, and in general (not meaning you, **Spoke** ) I find it very frustrating when liberals argue that diplomacy is preferable to war and should always be attempted before war, but then turn around and treat any kind of diplomacy as either an obvious prelude to war or as tantamount to war. It’s an incoherent position that lacks judgment and I don’t know if it is intended to point toward isolationism, but unfortunately it does. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/62 "2012-05-25T15:27:58Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I find it very frustrating when liberals argue that diplomacy is preferable to war and should always be attempted before war, but then turn around and treat any kind of diplomacy as either an obvious prelude to war or as tantamount to war. It’s an incoherent position that lacks judgment and I don’t know if it is intended to point toward isolationism, but unfortunately it does. It’s designed to trade in fear and fiction in order to coerce action or inaction. When both diplomacy and sabre rattling are both equated to war, and the only ‘valid path’ is Rand Paul or Kucinich, or whomever’s rhetoric, they’re hoping that they can scare up enough ignorant panic that people will support certain politicians as white knights… valiantly tilting at the windmills of an Iranian war since, after all, they just might be giants. > [@Spoke](#): > > We have a very imperfect understanding of the mindset of the Iranian people as a whole. If only there were some sort of organized method whereby one might ask people’s opinions, and some sort of tool one might use to search for such things on the internet. Instead, you must throw up your hands in despair. If only someone both brilliant _and_ handsome could come to your rescue. Never fear, Finn is here. [With his](http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/16/ballen.iranian.democracy/)[magical](http://articles.cnn.com/2007-07-16/world/iran.poll_1_nuclear-weapons-nuclear-inspections-president-mahmoud-ahmadinejad?_s=PM:WORLD) (and truly unique) [google](http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2011/RAND_TR910.pdf) [powers,](http://www.gallup.com/poll/120878/Even-Dispute-Iranians-Split-Honesty-Elections.aspx) his arcane methods to [divine information when there aren’t specific polls](http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2012/RAND_TR1161.pdf) and his knowledge of the [strikingly interesting results from the most recent elections.](http://www.cfr.org/iran/crisis-managing-us-iran-relations/p27558) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/63 "2012-05-25T15:42:35Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > I don’t think so. Iran, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, has a long history as a unified nation. True. True of its ethnic-Persian core, that is. However, Iran also includes [several ethnic/national/regional minorities](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iran_ethnoreligious_distribution_2004.jpg) who have expressed strong interest in secession/autonomy/independence at one time or another. The Balochis, for instance – both the Pakistani and the Iranian Balochis, next door to each other, have active independence movements – and, always, the Kurds – and even, occasionally, the Arabs of Khuzestan (on the border with Iraq – one of Saddam Hussein’s pretexts for war with Iran was to “liberate” them from Persian rule). (The Iranian Azerbaijanis, OTOH, for whatever reason, don’t seem much interested in seceding from Iran or uniting with the Republic of Azerbaijan.) This is relevant here because any foreign power seeking to destablize the regime might be tempted to make use of these. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/64 "2012-05-25T15:43:26Z")
Finn, did you actually read any of the polls you linked? Including the one where the majority of respondents oppose reestablishing ties with th US? I can smell the rose petals now! ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/65 "2012-05-25T15:55:29Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > did you actually read any of the polls you linked? The polls you didn’t even know existed? Yep, I read them. Naturally, you are now upset that I had the intellectual honesty to actually post the range of polling data, including the trend among the Iranian population for supporting rapprochement with America. Of course, you’ve quickly transitioned to the strawman of invading Iran and nonsense about being greeted with rose petals. Just like you’re, shall we say, [not exactly giving the full story of the one report you’ve deigned to mention.](http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2011/RAND_TR910.pdf) > [@](#): > > Iranians are generally believed to be one of the most pro-American populations in the Middle East,1 whereas the Iranian regime itself is arguably the most anti-American government in the region. Hence, it may seem natural that most Iranians would support the reestablishment of relations with the United States. According to a report on a September 2009 PIPA survey, 60 percent of all Iranians favored full, unconditional negotiations between the government of Iran and the government of the United States. The report also states that a postelection poll carried out in June 2009 by Globe Scan, which asked what respondents thought of “[p]ursuing direct talks with the US to resolve the problems between the two countries,” found that 58per-cent of Iranians favored this step. Furthermore, the PIPA survey found that 63 percent of all Iranians “favor[ed] Iran and the United States restoring diplomatic relations, while 27 percent were opposed.2 > > Our survey, conducted at the end of December 2009, revealed different Iranian percep-tions of the United States and U.S.-Iranian relations. When asked whether they favored or opposed reestablishing relations with the United States, a plurality of respondents (45percent) voiced opposition (34 percent were very opposed, and 11 percent were somewhat opposed). Only 39percent favored reestablishing relations (19 werepercent very in favor, and 20percent were somewhat in favor). Approximately 13percent stated that they are neither in favor nor opposed to reestablishing relations (see Figure5.1). > > However, respondents expressed different levels of support for or opposition to reestab-lishing relations with the United States depending on how comfortable they seemed to be with the survey (see Figure5.2). The effect of comfort level is particularly important to consider, given the apparent discomfort of some respondents observed during pretesting. This discom-fort is not unexpected, especially considering the political sensitivities surrounding the issue of U.S.-Iranian relations. After the 2009 presidential election, the Iranian government accused the U.S. government of supporting the Green Movement, and these claims were followed by show trials of reformist/Green Movement activists allegedly supported by outside powers, including the United States. Improved relations with the United States was a regular topic of discussion among the elite prior to the election but has become much more controversial and sensitive since the election and the subsequent mass protests against the government. It is pos-sible, therefore, that respondents who seemed least comfortable with the survey were afraid that government officials were monitoring the survey call. > > Among respondents who seemed most comfortable with the survey, there was a nearly even split between those supporting (43 percent) and opposing (41 percent) the reestablish-ment of relations with the United States. (For the sake of clarity, we have combined the “very” and “somewhat” options in each case, thereby collapsing support and opposition into single categories.) Approximately 13percent said they were neither in favor nor opposed. However, respondents who seemed less comfortable with the survey expressed more opposition than support.3 > > These results suggest that respondents’ comfort level with the survey, as assessed by the interviewers, played an important role in expressions of support for or opposition to reestab-lishing relations with the United States. Those who seemed most comfortable with the survey expressed support and opposition in roughly equal percentages, but those who seemed less comfortable with the survey voiced opposition in greater numbers than those voicing support. Don’t worry Spoke, I’m sure that everybody reading along will agree with you that I didn’t actually read the polls and that ignoring the actual context behind the lower number for rapprochement with America is the best call. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/66 "2012-05-25T18:26:59Z")
What percentage do you suppose would be scattering the rose petals? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/67 "2012-05-25T18:29:41Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > What percentage do you suppose would be scattering the rose petals? **Spoke** , this is getting ridiculous. Nobody’s predicting rose petals or arguing in support of an invasion. This exchange started with: > [@Ludovic](#): > > Iran would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a walk in the tulips, because they’re hilly, and have a loyalty, cohererence, and modernity that those two countries lack. > [@Marley23](#): > > I’m doubtful that Iranians are feeling that much loyalty to their government. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/68 "2012-05-25T18:31:15Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Of course, you’ve quickly transitioned to the strawman of invading Iran and nonsense about being greeted with rose petals. > [@Spoke](#): > > What percentage do you suppose would be scattering the rose petals? It’s like you’re not even trying anymore. Cool. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/69 "2012-05-25T18:32:53Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > What percentage do you suppose would be scattering the rose petals? Poppy petals, I should think. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/70 "2012-05-25T18:39:49Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > It’s like you’re not even trying anymore. > Cool. “Rose petals” first came up in post #16, but it seems to be recurring with greater frequency in response to unwanted facts. Nobody’s arguing in support of a war, **Spoke** , and **FinnAgain** and I have both said repeatedly that sanctions and the coordination of a diplomatic response are not part of the runup to a war. Like I wrote earlier, it’s frustrating when people can’t or won’t tell the difference. But that’s separate from other posters making assertions that Iranians support their government, because they have little reason to do so - and the Iranian government damn well knows that because for years they’ve been shouting that any kind of dissent, including the 2009 protests, is the product of American and British and Zionist interference and doesn’t reflect the views of Iranians. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/71 "2012-05-25T20:07:04Z")
I wasn’t trying to say that Iranians currently blanketly support their government – just that they do so much more than they did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Enough so that if the country were at war they could – not necessarily _would_ – rally behind them like nations under war tend to do. And they are a nation moreso than Afghanistan and Iraq, which were stiven by internal tribal divisions much moreso than the relatively coherent Persian population, which isn’t to say that there aren’t separtist minorities in Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/72 "2012-05-25T20:50:02Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > …that sanctions and the coordination of a diplomatic response are not part of the runup to a war. Like I wrote earlier, it’s frustrating when people can’t or won’t tell the difference… You’re right. Nobody rational believes that the sanctions are the run-up to war. That’s why Kucinich only sees 10 or maybe 11 congressman agree with him in that madhouse. It’s good that you don’t bother at all with the argument the rational opposition is actually making. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/73 "2012-05-25T20:52:47Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > It’s good that you don’t bother at all with the argument the rational opposition is actually making. Which argument is that, and which opposition is that? I’m all for keeping a close eye on the progress of these talks and diplomatic efforts so things don’t get out of hand, but if you have not seen people who are absolutely positive the sanctions mean the U.S. is going to invade Iran soon, then you are either lucky or you haven’t discussed this issue with a lot of people. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/74 "2012-05-25T20:53:57Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > the rational opposition The whowhat now? ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/75 "2012-05-25T22:08:57Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Which argument is that, and which opposition is that? I’m all for keeping a close eye on the progress of these talks and diplomatic efforts so things don’t get out of hand, but if you have not seen people who are absolutely positive the sanctions mean the U.S. is going to invade Iran soon, then you are either lucky or you haven’t discussed this issue with a lot of people. Those rationally opposed to the track we are on worry about the post-Obama future or the possibility that the Israeli government is not full of shit, especially if the sanctions fail to have their desired effect, which they most likely will. They prefer that we do not starve the average Iranian, arm terrorists, assassinate, sabotage, and most definitely not bomb. They believe that the process should be handled entirely via the UN. They view the mix of rhetoric, events, and historical perspective as something similar to the events that led toward the 2nd Iraq War. It’s not an irrational point-of-view. Unluckily in this forum it’s typically the black-and-white pronouncements of somebody like Kucinich or Netanyahu that cause these debates to get started. These arguments are entirely one of perception because no decent facts are obtainable. These discussions are more an exhibition of personality than a debate of facts that are relevant to whether these events lead to an inevitable invasion or these other facts mean that Iran is most definitely developing a nuclear weapon. It’s just suspicion and speculation. If it really was just about lunatics that think sanctions equals war then I doubt anyone at all would post. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/76 "2012-05-25T22:10:14Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > The whowhat now? You didn’t have to post that, I already know that’s your response. I’m just surprised it was a single sentence. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2012, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/77 "2012-05-25T23:46:46Z")
Yeah, I’m being glib with the rose petals stuff. But when I hear people start talking about how, “Gee, you know the Iranians really don’t like their own government so much, and therefore…” I worry about what sort of “therefores” may follow from that line of reasoning. Because a lot of the “therefores” don’t really follow. “Rose petals” is just a comical way of alluding to the ultimate fallacy. We have seen that line of reasoning employed recently. And disastrously. Best not to even start down that path again. Fool me once, won’t get fooled again. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/78 "2012-05-26T00:33:10Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > Those rationally opposed to the track we are on […]They believe that the process should be handled entirely via the UN. Hrmm… the ‘rational opposition’, opposing “the track we are on” and wanting the UN to handle things instead. Like [the UN sanctions against Iran?](http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sc9948.doc.htm) Would you, perhaps, care to choose another adjective to describe the opposition? Rational does not seem particularly apt, is all. > [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > They view the mix of rhetoric, events, and historical perspective as something similar to the events that led toward the 2nd Iraq War. In that they’re political events taking place in the Middle East and related to investigations of WMD’s, yes. Of course, being unable to differentiate the events surrounding the Iraq war from what’s currently happening with Iran is hardly “rational”. Perhaps “the fallacy-driven opposition”? > [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > These arguments are entirely one of perception because no decent facts are obtainable. Generally whenever someone claims this, it’s because they don’t have any facts to rely upon. Not only are there quite a few decent facts, they can be (and have been) cited. A lack of 100% perfect knowledge is hardly fatal to factual discussion. Unless, of course, you can prove for 100% certain that you are not in fact a brain in a jar? Perhaps… the “brain in a jar opposition?” ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2012, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/79 "2012-05-26T02:04:07Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > You do realize that your dodges are not only predictable, I predicted that one in the very post you’re responding to? > I mean, I know you’ve got nothing so you’re lobbing me softballs, but when I point out the bullshit dodge you’re going to use, going ahead and using it kinda takes some of the thunder out of it. Why in the world is that relevant? Predicting what someone else will do can also be used when they have a legitimate argument–it’s called poisoning the well. His argument is pretty basic: you call him out for fearmongering, but you do it yourself. It shouldn’t take much for you to either explain why it’s okay for you to do, or to assert that he’s wrong about your previous posts. At that point it would be up to him to either prove your logic wrong, or to provide instances of posts proving you wrong. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2012, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921/80 "2012-05-26T02:18:21Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Why in the world is that relevant? Pointing out the bullshit dodges someone will use shows that their argument is weak. Them then not having any actual argument other than bullshit dodges shows that their argument is functionally non-existent. You should learn what “poisoning the well” actually means. > [@BigT](#): > > you call him out for fearmongering, but you do it yourself. Except, of course, his argument is based on fear mongering and nothing else, and mine doesn’t contain it at all. So, yes, his argument is both “basic” and, ya know, fictional. Your claim that I could, potentially “assert that he’s wrong about my previous posts” reveals the fact that you haven’t even read _this_ thread before holding forth. Good job. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kucinich-is-right-on-iran/622921.md?page=5)