# (Lack of) Accuracy of election polls

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-accuracy-of-election-polls/471734>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [November 7, 2008, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-accuracy-of-election-polls/471734 "2008-11-07T22:57:30Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2008, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-accuracy-of-election-polls/471734/21 "2008-11-08T16:11:17Z")

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```auto

Pollster Dates N/Pop Stevens Begich Bird Haase Other Undecided Margin  

Hays Research (D) 11/2/08 400 A 42 49 - - 2 7 +7D  
YouGov/Polimetrix 10/18-11/1/08 358 RV 42 44 - - - - +2D  

```

Here are the last two polls given by [Pollster.com](http://Pollster.com). The YouGov Poll was tied within margin of error and the Hays poll had a large undecided factor. Either poll showed an even split in the voting between Stevens and Begich. If the undecided broke for Stevens at the last minute, which seems probable, then the polls were trending correctly. As I said earlier, polls are backward-looking not forward looking. People always seem to forget that.

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**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-accuracy-of-election-polls/471734/22 "2008-11-08T16:41:14Z")

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I owe an apology to pollsters everywhere. I thought they were missing a lot of Obama supporters, but it looks like they got it about right. (Including state polls in Georgia.) So hats off!

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