# Lack of evidence Jesus existed. Do we typically have evidence of historical figures from that time?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-evidence-jesus-existed-do-we-typically-have-evidence-of-historical-figures-from-that-time/756155>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [May 31, 2016, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-evidence-jesus-existed-do-we-typically-have-evidence-of-historical-figures-from-that-time/756155 "2016-05-31T07:49:35Z")\
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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [June 3, 2016, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lack-of-evidence-jesus-existed-do-we-typically-have-evidence-of-historical-figures-from-that-time/756155/164 "2016-06-03T20:04:43Z")

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My $0.02 worth about a subtopic:

When trying to guesstimate the probability that there was an historic Jesus, one must work with _a priori_ probabilities.

To take but one example, consider the reaction Jesus gets when he visits his home town: “A prophet is not without honour, save in his own country, and in his own house.” Were such accounts fictions added for some didactic purpose? Or are they simply a true chronicle? What are the chances a fiction writer would invent such a story? What are the chances that such incidents would have occurred in a real life? There are several incidents in the Gospel that have a “ring of truth” simply because they have no clear purpose for a fiction writer.

Why did Jesus, if fictional, say “My God, my God, why hast thou forsaken me?” on Calvary? For that matter, why invent a fictional Jesus in the first place when there were real “messiahs” to choose from, e.g. John the Baptist?

What are the chances that a 1st-century Galilean could turn water into wine and walk on water? Low, I’d think. What are the chances a zealot(?) could be charismatic enough to heal, teach, hypnotise, and inspire? Even inspire Gospel writers to make up fantasies about him? Not low at all, I think.

See? It’s all about guessing probabilities. Now the huge net of probabilities is too complex and the probabilities too uncertain to dream of actually applying Bayes’ Theorem arithmetically. (And anyway I reach the opposite conclusion as Carrier.) _ **But having a feel for a priori probabilities is essential.** _

Once or twice on this and another message board, I myself have avoided a tedious paragraph about “comparing the chances of hypothetical priors and causal chains” with a terse phrase mentioning “Bayes Theorem.” And thereby caused confusion… :smack:

I’ve not read Carrier’s book; if he tries to develop actual numbers to plug into Bayes Theorem he’s probably being silly. **But contemplating _a priori_ probabilities, however fuzzy, is the correct way to approach many questions.** If someone introduces Bayes’ Theorem to make this point, I have no problem with them.

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