# Ladies and Gents - The July Surprise. On Schedule.
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488
**Category:** The BBQ Pit
**Created:** [July 29, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488 "2004-07-29T20:00:24Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/1 "2004-07-29T20:00:24Z")
[Hours before John Kerry’s acceptance speech.](http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/07/29/pakistan.alqaeda.capture/index.html)
He was captured a few days ago…
---
### Author:  [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/2 "2004-07-29T20:09:06Z")
Unless its Ossama himself, no one will care.
---
### Author:  [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/3 "2004-07-29T20:25:11Z")
People will care. According to a [more detailed Reuters article](http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5818352), it’s Ahmed Ghailini, wanted in connection with the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings which killed hundreds of people.
I don’t think his capture by Pakistani security forces was part of any cynical conspiracy, though. :dubious:
---
### Author:  [@Lord\_Ashtar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Ashtar)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/4 "2004-07-29T20:31:36Z")
They’ll “capture” OBL about an hour before Bush speaks at the RNC so he can announce it first thing.
---
### Author:  [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/5 "2004-07-29T20:34:28Z")
> [@Larry Mudd](#):
>
> I don’t think his capture by Pakistani security forces was part of any cynical conspiracy, though. :dubious:
I’m not quite sure what I think of this anymore; but you’ve got to admit the timing of this particular announcement can’t be anything but good for the Bush Administration.
---
### Author:  [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/6 "2004-07-29T20:37:00Z")
> [@Aguecheek](#):
>
> [Hours before John Kerry’s acceptance speech.](http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/07/29/pakistan.alqaeda.capture/index.html)
>
> He was captured a few days ago…
If this is “on schedule,” why didn’t you predict it in advance?
There was a thread in which I asked for predictions after the last bullshit “on schedule” comment, and I don’t recall anyone predicting that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention.
“To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first, and whatever you hit, call that the target.”
We routinely scoff at “psychics” who claim hits with precisely this sort of tactic.
Was a specific prediction made in advance? No. Then this is not “on schedule.” It just happened.
- Rick
---
### Author:  [@MysteryFellow63427](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteryFellow63427)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/7 "2004-07-29T20:40:11Z")
Hey, my server at Taco Bell’s drive-thru window just handed me a coupon for fifty cents off a Fiesta Burrito with the purchase of a medium drink. Merely hours before Kerry’s acceptance speech! You know who owns Taco Bell, don’t you? PepsiCo. Know how much money they’ve given to the GOP? _Thousands_. Well, you evil 'pubbies, you’re not fooling me with your thinly veiled attempt to distract me from the DNP’s convention. _I_ know who’s on first here, and none of your dime store chicanery is going to take my attention away from the important issues at ha- holy shit. Did that guy just drop a quarter?
---
### Author:  [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/8 "2004-07-29T20:50:09Z")
It’s pretty transparent that the announcement was held off to coincide with Kerry’s acceptance speech. It didn’t take a psychic to know that the Bushistas would try to find a way to manipulate the news and piss on Kerry’s day today either. If this hadn’t fallen into their laps it would have been another one of those contrived “terror alerts” or something. It’s not going to help them, though.
---
### Author:  [@Gaudere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gaudere)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/9 "2004-07-29T20:52:43Z")
Actually, dopers discussed this scenario earlier this month in GD: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=265567](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=265567)
It was inspired by [this July 7 article](https://ssl.tnr.com/p/docsub.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904):
“… according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July” – the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.”
---
### Author:  [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/10 "2004-07-29T20:57:54Z")
> [@Gaudere](#):
>
> Actually, dopers discussed this scenario earlier this month in GD: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=265567](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=265567)
>
> It was inspired by [this July 7 article](https://ssl.tnr.com/p/docsub.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904):
> “… according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July” – the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.”
Where in that thread is Mr. Ghailini mentioned? I can’t seem to find it.
---
### Author:  [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/11 "2004-07-29T20:59:44Z")
> [@Gaudere](#):
>
> “… according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on **twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight** July” – the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.”
Gee, I’d say they missed it then. :rolleyes: Thats some schedule. They must be homebrewers. Anything within a few days is “close enough”.
---
### Author:  [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/12 "2004-07-29T20:59:50Z")
> [@Bricker](#):
>
> If this is “on schedule,” why didn’t you predict it in advance?
>
> There was a thread in which I asked for predictions after the last bullshit “on schedule” comment, and I don’t recall anyone predicting that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention.
>
> “To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first, and whatever you hit, call that the target.”
>
> We routinely scoff at “psychics” who claim hits with precisely this sort of tactic.
>
> Was a specific prediction made in advance? No. Then this is not “on schedule.” It just happened.
>
> - Rick
Hm. I read the thread in question, but didn’t post as I didn’t really have anything to add. I’d heard the “July Surprise” theory and was willing to dismiss it as nothing but conspiracy up to this point. I had nothing to predict.
Now, on the other hand, I’m not so sure.
You’re right. No one predicted that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention. What _was_ discussed, however, was that the Bush Administration was pushing Pakistan to announce the capture of a high-level al Qaeda operative sometime during the DNC.
And that’s exactly what happened. If he was captured on Sunday, why wasn’t it announced on Sunday? Or at the latest, Monday? Why did this particular announcement have to wait until just before John Kerry’s acceptance speech? Just in time for the evening news programs?
This particular announcement confirms the prediction of everyone who suggested it except for the single fact that it wasn’t Osama bin Laden. So Pakistan doesn’t have him yet, and offered up the best they could.
Or they’ve got him and they’re waiting for a few days before election day.
I have no idea. But I’m not particularly keen on giving this Administration the benefit of the doubt these days.
---
### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/13 "2004-07-29T21:00:20Z")
Yeah, the 10 seconds that CNN et al are giving to this story is just swamping out the Democractic Convention.
---
### Author:  [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/14 "2004-07-29T21:04:00Z")
> [@Aguecheek](#):
>
> I’m not quite sure what I think of this anymore; but you’ve got to admit the timing of this particular announcement can’t be anything but good for the Bush Administration.
Well yeah, but it seems more reasonable to suppose that it’s incidental rather than the result of some sinister plot. After all, while this is good news for the Bush Administration, if they were manipulating _when_ this took place, they could pick a _better_ time. The topic will have changed by November. Comparing this situation to the October Surprise is ludicrous, because the whole point of an October Surprise is its temporal proximity to a polling day.
How do you posit that Pakistani security forces colluded with Bush administration in this instance? You mean the timing of announcement contrasted with the actual arrest? It’s not surprising that it took a few days to determine his identity. It’s not like the guy’s going to be carrying ID with “Ahmed Ghailani, Embassy Bomber” on it. If it _could_ have been released right away, it probably would have been _more_ beneficial for the Bush admin, because it would have distracted people from the Clinton speech. Clinton’s a better speaker than Kerry, and most people recognize that.
This particular announcement wouldn’t be anything but good for the Bush administration at _any_ time, and if they had control over when it occurred, it’s easy to imagine much more convenient times in both the relatively immediate past and future.
---
### Author:  [@Gaudere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gaudere)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/15 "2004-07-29T21:06:53Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Where in that thread is Mr. Ghailini mentioned? I can’t seem to find it.
He’s not; it just mentions “High Value Target[s]” that ideally should be captured and announced during the Dem convention. But I suspect you knew that and are actually alleging that something like “there will be a HVT capture announced during this small span of days” is not a prediction since the particular HVT’s name was not specifically mentioned. Originally, I was merely alerting you what I thought was a relevant thread in my fora that you did not seem to be familiar with; I am not going to discuss whether the lack of a specific name invalidates any prediction.
---
### Author:  [@Muad\_Dib](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muad_Dib)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/16 "2004-07-29T21:10:23Z")
I hope that the OP was being sarcastic otherwise you guys are going insane.
---
### Author:  [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/17 "2004-07-29T21:22:13Z")
> [@Bricker](#):
>
> Where in that thread is Mr. Ghailini mentioned? I can’t seem to find it.
The White House wanted “any HVT” (High Value Target). Ghailini is an HVT delivered right at Convention time as requested.
---
### Author:  [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/18 "2004-07-29T21:24:15Z")
> [@Larry Mudd](#):
>
> Well yeah, but it seems more reasonable to suppose that it’s incidental rather than the result of some sinister plot. After all, while this is good news for the Bush Administration, if they were manipulating _when_ this took place, they could pick a _better_ time. The topic will have changed by November. Comparing this situation to the October Surprise is ludicrous, because the whole point of an October Surprise is its temporal proximity to a polling day.
Pundits say that any big boost in Kerry’s poll numbers should come soon after and as a result of the DNC. If this is a commonly accepted theory, this is good timing in that Kerry’s last chance for a good boost could be overshadowed by the Administration yelling out: “Check it out! The War on Terror’s working! Vote Bush!”
> [@](#):
>
> How do you posit that Pakistani security forces colluded with Bush administration in this instance? You mean the timing of announcement contrasted with the actual arrest? It’s not surprising that it took a few days to determine his identity. It’s not like the guy’s going to be carrying ID with “Ahmed Ghailani, Embassy Bomber” on it. If it _could_ have been released right away, it probably would have been _more_ beneficial for the Bush admin, because it would have distracted people from the Clinton speech. Clinton’s a better speaker than Kerry, and most people recognize that.
I’m not positing. I’m basing this on _The New Republic_ article cited in **Gaudere’s** link above. As mentioned, I was quite willing to dismiss it as conspiracy up to this point. Currently, I’m at the “now I have no idea _what_ to think” stage.
You’re right. It’s not surprising that it took a few days to determine his identity. At the same time, one would think that a “high value target” that is on the FBI’s most-wanted terrorist list would be relatively easy to recognize. Particularly considering the fact that the US has been working very hard with Pakistan to seize known terrorists.
> [@](#):
>
> This particular announcement wouldn’t be anything but good for the Bush administration at _any_ time, and if they had control over when it occurred, it’s easy to imagine much more convenient times in both the relatively immediate past and future.
I completely agree; which makes me somewhat concerned as to what might be coming in the future. By and large, this announcement is almost exactly what has been predicted. If it’s coincidence, you must admit it’s a pretty good one.
---
### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/19 "2004-07-29T21:26:01Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#):
>
> The White House wanted “any HVT” (High Value Target). Ghailini is an HVT delivered right at Convention time as requested.
Man, if Bush can get an “HVT” anytime he wants on schedule like this, I’m sure voting for him in Nov. I’ll bet Kerry could NEVER equal that performance. We need someone in the Whitehouse who can bring these guys in!!
---
### Author:  [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2004, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/20 "2004-07-29T21:28:09Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Originally posted on **The New Republic**
> \*A third source, an official who works under ISI’s director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis “have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must.” What’s more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: “The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq’s] meetings in Washington.”
Erm. With that in mind, I think I’ll step over the line and stand in the cynical conspiracy camp.
[previews]
> [@Aguecheek](#):
>
> I’m not positing. I’m basing this on The New Republic article cited in **Gaudere** ’s link above.
Ayuh, my post was composed before that popped up, and I was going back and forth between _Crossfire_ on CNN. Sorry.
Count this as a Lily Tomlin moment for me. :eek:
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488.md?page=2)