# Ladies and Gents - The July Surprise. On Schedule. **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [July 29, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488 "2004-07-29T20:00:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/21 "2004-07-29T21:29:30Z")
> [@Muad'Dib](#): > > I hope that the OP was being sarcastic otherwise you guys are going insane. Not sarcastic _per se_. People said that the announcement would come sometime during the DNC. There has now been such an announcement. It was not intended as “This theory has now been validated, any who disagreed has been proven wrong, neener neener.” More like “Hey! Just when they said it would come! That’s troublesome!” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/22 "2004-07-29T21:31:52Z")
> [@Aguecheek](#): > > You’re right. It’s not surprising that it took a few days to determine his identity. At the same time, one would think that a “high value target” that is on the FBI’s most-wanted terrorist list would be relatively easy to recognize. Particularly considering the fact that the US has been working very hard with Pakistan to seize known terrorists. I don’t know. Where was the guy actually captured and how long would it take to get him somewhere where the identification process could take place? A day or so for transport and a day or so for identification seems very reasonable. We’re talking Pakistan here, remember. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/23 "2004-07-29T21:37:54Z")
Eh. I’m pretty much a raging pinko, but I’d be surprised if this is a ploy. How many of you had heard of this guy before he got captured? How many of you can remember the last major guy who got captured? And the media doesn’t seem to be falling over themselves to report this: they have their tradition about the conventions, and they’re not going to break them easily. On the other hand, if any evidence surfaces that this news was planned, you can bet it’ll backfire on Bush like nobody’s business. Because I believe that Karl Rove is one canny motherfucker, I can’t believe he’d do something with this little benefit and this much risk. I say it’s a coincidence. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/24 "2004-07-29T21:43:29Z")
**LHD** : Very well put. The conspiracy theory types NEVER seem to take into account the absolutely devastating impact that blowing the cover off the conspiracy would have. It’s like there’s all upside and no downside. ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/25 "2004-07-29T21:44:19Z")
News Brief: Something related to the War On Terror happened just prior to John Kerry’s speech. Pundits are decrying the RNC for not cancelling any and all operations to bask in the glory of Kerry’s winning smile. Developing… ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/26 "2004-07-29T21:56:11Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > If this is “on schedule,” why didn’t you predict it in advance? > > There was a thread in which I asked for predictions after the last bullshit “on schedule” comment, and I don’t recall anyone predicting that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention. I tend not to agree with the conspiracy theorists, but it’s not really necessary for them to prove their point that they predict _who_ is captured, merely that they predict that _a_ significant advance is announced at a crucial point. And of the two people to directly answer your challenge in the thread you mention, one did tag the DNC (albeit two days out): > [@NotMrKnowItAll](#): > > The Day after the Democratic Convention Begins–27 July I agree with your general point re: post hoc “predictions”, and it was with this in mind that I opened this thread. I think you’re off base expecting people to predict the specific content of the terror warnings/announcements, however, as that isn’t central to their premise at all. Moreover, several such warnings have contained precisely no content whatsoever, making the task somewhat difficult. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/27 "2004-07-29T21:59:02Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > Because I believe that Karl Rove is one canny motherfucker, I can’t believe he’d do something with this little benefit and this much risk. I say it’s a coincidence. Don’t forget, **someone** in the Bush administration though it was worth blowing the cover of an undercover CIA operative to exact petty vengence on a critic of the administration. That’s a bigger risk for even less gain. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/28 "2004-07-29T22:03:22Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > I don’t know. Where was the guy actually captured and how long would it take to get him somewhere where the identification process could take place? A day or so for transport and a day or so for identification seems very reasonable. We’re talking Pakistan here, remember. From [FoxNews](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,127475,00.html) > [@](#): > > Hayyat announced the arrest after midnight in Pakistan in an interview with Geo television, **an unusually late hour** considering the arrests were made Sunday and **authorities had known but not revealed the man’s identity for some days**. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/29 "2004-07-29T22:04:49Z")
> [@Lord Ashtar](#): > > They’ll “capture” OBL about an hour before Bush speaks at the RNC so he can announce it first thing. Nah; they’ve already got him and stashed him in a cave [under a mountain in Pennsylvania](http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/nation/9189434.htm?1c). When the time is right, they’ll drag him out for political gain. ::where the hell is my hat?:: ---
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/30 "2004-07-29T22:06:49Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > **LHD** : Very well put. The conspiracy theory types NEVER seem to take into account the absolutely devastating impact that blowing the cover off the conspiracy would have. It’s like there’s all upside and no downside. Good point. If there _is_ one, however, I am anxiously awaiting the fallout. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/31 "2004-07-29T22:08:35Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Man, if Bush can get an “HVT” anytime he wants on schedule like this, I’m sure voting for him in Nov. I’ll bet Kerry could NEVER equal that performance. We need someone in the Whitehouse who can bring these guys in!! So you’re okay with an administration that apparently pressures our putative “ally” in the war on terrorism to take action against terrorism when it is most politically advantageous to the administration? It doesn’t bother you that they think capturing or killing terrorist leaders is more important this week than it was last week or will be next week? ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/32 "2004-07-29T22:14:50Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > On the other hand, if any evidence surfaces that this news was planned, you can bet it’ll backfire on Bush like nobody’s business. > > Because I believe that Karl Rove is one canny motherfucker, I can’t believe he’d do something with this little benefit and this much risk. I say it’s a coincidence. What risk? What planning? All they had to do was tell the Pakistanis they’d sure appreciate it if they produced someone important 'round the time of the convention. The Bushies don’t have to be involved in the capture in any way, or even have any knowledge of it–they just sit back and wait for the Pakistanis to come through, then throw them some extra money or F-16s later on. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/33 "2004-07-29T22:17:32Z")
Did you guys know that 50% of all murders happen within a week of a full moon? (Of course, 50% of TIME happens within a week of a full moon…) ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/34 "2004-07-29T22:17:58Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Man, if Bush can get an “HVT” anytime he wants on schedule like this, I’m sure voting for him in Nov. I’ll bet Kerry could NEVER equal that performance. We need someone in the Whitehouse who can bring these guys in!! Well damn. I guess that means we’ll get one whenever there is a high-stakes political event here at home. Let’s see… One every two years for the house elections, one every four years for the DNC, one every four years for the RNC, one every four years for the Presidential elections. So in a four year period we’ll get four. In the other timeframes we’ll go back to ignoring them in favor of interventions in other countries who don’t represent any sort of threat to us. For their own good, of course. We’ve had the ability to “get the HVTs” for quite some time. We’ve just squandered it on invading Iraq for reasons which are either bullshit or still hidden. Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/35 "2004-07-29T22:19:54Z")
When I saw this thread an hour or so ago, I switched the TV to Fox News, thinking that if anyone were covering it, it would be they. So far, they have mentioned it only once, during the one-minute news update. All the rest of the time, they’ve talked about Kerry and the Democrats. If Republicans orchestrated this, they wasted their time. Besides, tomorrow is “trash day”. It’s a bad time to release important news. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/36 "2004-07-29T22:22:55Z")
> [@minty green](#): > > So you’re okay with an administration that apparently pressures our putative “ally” in the war on terrorism to take action against terrorism when it is most politically advantageous to the administration? It doesn’t bother you that they think capturing or killing terrorist leaders is more important this week than it was last week or will be next week? Of course I was being sarcastic, just to demonstrate how silly the whole argument is. If Bush had this ability, why doesn’t he just tell the Pakastanis to produce one HVT every week between now and the election? You guys are like the psychic who claims “Oh, I can’t do this on demand. Only when the moon is right [or whatever].” It just doesn’t make any sense. All the networks will still cover Kerry live tonight. All the newspapers will sill have KERRY! as their big headline tomorrow. This just isn’t big news. ObL is big news. Saddam is big news. al-Zarquawi would be big news. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/37 "2004-07-29T22:31:30Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Of course I was being sarcastic, just to demonstrate how silly the whole argument is. If Bush had this ability, why doesn’t he just tell the Pakastanis to produce one HVT every week between now and the election? > > You guys are like the psychic who claims “Oh, I can’t do this on demand. Only when the moon is right [or whatever].” > > It just doesn’t make any sense. All the networks will still cover Kerry live tonight. All the newspapers will sill have KERRY! as their big headline tomorrow. This just isn’t big news. ObL is big news. Saddam is big news. al-Zarquawi would be big news. The fact remains that the H requested a capture for this specific week. We didn’t make that up. Why did they specify a particular week? ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/38 "2004-07-29T22:34:00Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Man, if Bush can get an “HVT” anytime he wants on schedule like this, I’m sure voting for him in Nov. I’ll bet Kerry could NEVER equal that performance. We need someone in the Whitehouse who can bring these guys in!! I have to agree. Far preferable to a President who actually does bring them in at earliest opportunity. I want terrorists left at large to plan and implement the deaths of US civilians. I want to see High Value terrorist Targets only taken in when it is prudent for the electoral benefit of the Republican Party and no earlier. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/39 "2004-07-29T22:36:05Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > The fact remains that the H requested a capture for this specific week. We didn’t make that up. That’s what is alleged. Should I expect to see any major US newspaper report tomorrow that “Bush Conspiracy to disrupt DNC uncovered?” I doubt it. > [@](#): > > Why did they specify a particular week? Because they’re evil, of course. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/40 "2004-07-29T22:36:27Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Of course I was being sarcastic, just to demonstrate how silly the whole argument is. If Bush had this ability, why doesn’t he just tell the Pakastanis to produce one HVT every week between now and the election? Because the Pakistanis do not have the power to produce such persons on a regular schedule. But they _do_ arrest such folks from time to time. What’s to prevent them from arranging the arrest and announcement of one such person to coincide with the time requested by the Bushies? They locate the guy a couple weeks ago, arrest him on Sunday, make the announcement after midnight local time a few hours before the last night of the convention. Sure looks like a job well done, except that they couldn’t get anyone more important. > [@](#): > > It just doesn’t make any sense. All the networks will still cover Kerry live tonight. All the newspapers will sill have KERRY! as their big headline tomorrow. This just isn’t big news. ObL is big news. Saddam is big news. al-Zarquawi would be big news. So the Pakistanis weren’t as good at it as the Bushies would have liked, but they appear to have given it a shot anyway. Once again, are you not disturbed by the implication that the adminstration is apparently populated by people who think fighting terrorism is more important some weeks than others? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488.md?page=3)