# Ladies and Gents - The July Surprise. On Schedule. **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [July 29, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488 "2004-07-29T20:00:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/41 "2004-07-29T22:38:20Z")
Actually, I think the adminstration would do well to watch [this story](http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/07/29/uk.afghan.iraq/index.html) - I would see this as having big potential for backlash for them. So while I’m fairly distrustful of the administration, I don’t believe they had any level of control over the WaT (which, of course, is one of the major problems IMHO). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/42 "2004-07-29T22:42:11Z")
> [@sevastopol](#): > > I have to agree. Far preferable to a President who actually does bring them in at earliest opportunity. > > I want terrorists left at large to plan and implement the deaths of US civilians. I want to see High Value terrorist Targets only taken in when it is prudent for the electoral benefit of the Republican Party and no earlier. My God! I was just joking, but you acutally believe this. What kind of monster are you??? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/43 "2004-07-29T22:42:57Z")
Look, it’s simple. Go back and read the orignal New Republic article. The Bush administration tells the Pakistanis: “We really want a big catch during the DNC. Give us one and you’ll see some quid pro quo down the line. Maybe those F-16s you want. Or maybe we’ll go easier on you about your sloppy nuclear program.” Today’s announcement provides **additional confirmation** that the original New Republic article was correct. The fact that the catch is not a big headline grabber is immaterial. The Pakistanis just can’t make OBL materialize on demand. The point is not that someone was captured during the convention. It’s that someone was captured during the convention **after** a bunch of sources independently said that the White House was trying to engineer that someone would be captured during the convention. It’s unethical for the White House to be using its reationship with foreign governments to help it win elections. It’s precisely this sort of misuse of government resources for political gain that got Nixon in trouble. Over and over again the Bush White House demonstrates that its an ethical black hole that puts its own political survival and the finances of its cronies ahead of the safety of the American people. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/44 "2004-07-29T22:47:18Z")
> [@minty green](#): > > Because the Pakistanis do not have the power to produce such persons on a regular schedule. But they _do_ arrest such folks from time to time. What’s to prevent them from arranging the arrest and announcement of one such person to coincide with the time requested by the Bushies? They locate the guy a couple weeks ago, arrest him on Sunday, make the announcement after midnight local time a few hours before the last night of the convention. Sure looks like a job well done, except that they couldn’t get anyone more important. If you can demonstrate that this is true, and not some made-up scenario, then you’ve got a point. Right now, it’s just speculation of the outlandish sort. BTW, what other person of this sort (ie, a true HVT) have the Pakistanis produced on schedule? But I do have my tin foil hat ready just in case ObL is captured in mid-Oct. Do you? ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/45 "2004-07-29T23:03:33Z")
Would anybody be happy if we capture or kill OBL, or would you just point to President Bush trying to use the capture for politcal gain? For God’s sake, we’ve been looking for him for nearly four years. Don’t you think we’re due for a break by now on landing on the son of a bitch? ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/46 "2004-07-29T23:15:38Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > Would anybody be happy if we capture or kill OBL, or would you just point to President Bush trying to use the capture for politcal gain? If it was announced just _hours_ before his primary rival was supposed to give his acceptance speech at the DNC? Especially when the HVT was caught _four days ago?_ Man, if that doesn’t set off alarm bells in your head, something is **seriously** defective… ---
**Author:** ![cmason32](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@cmason32](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmason32)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2004, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/47 "2004-07-29T23:35:55Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > . If this hadn’t fallen into their laps it would have been another one of those contrived “terror alerts” or something. [You mean like this one announced today?](http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/terror/20040729-1516-wst-terrorwarning-west.html) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON – The FBI warned police in New Mexico and California that it received information about possible terrorist activity in their states. However, the warning wasn’t specific about particular targets or a method of attack, a federal law enforcement official said Thursday. > \*\* > The FBI decided to pass along the threat information but warned that it was considered unsubstantiated and uncorroborated, said the official, who spoke only on condition of anonymity\*\*. > > Peter Olson, a spokesman for the New Mexico Department of Public Safety, said state officials have been told only that there were reports of possible al-Qaeda elements in New Mexico. > > “There are no specific dates, times, locations or any other specific information that we have at this time,” he said. > > He also said the state has no information on why the warning is being issued now. > > Law enforcement agencies were being asked “to be extremely vigilant … report anything that seems to be peculiar,” Olson said. > > However, no one was put on heightened alert and the state did not activate its Emergency Operations Center, he said. > > “This is our normal procedure. If we receive specific information, then we act on that,” Olson said. “But we have nothing at this point.” ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Mudd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f14d63/32.png) [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/48 "2004-07-30T00:00:09Z")
> [@](#): > > [Jul. 29, 2004](http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/terror/20040729-1516-wst-terrorwarning-west.html) - The FBI warned police in New Mexico and California that it received information about possible terrorist activity in their states. Umm… since I’ve already moved over to the cynical conspiracy line… > [@](#): > > [Jul. 28, 2004](http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3568) – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards could carry the state of California in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. > [@](#): > > [Jul. 27, 2004](http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3562) – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of New Mexico in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive. La la la… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/49 "2004-07-30T00:09:43Z")
> [@Gaudere](#): > > He’s not; it just mentions “High Value Target[s]” that ideally should be captured and announced during the Dem convention. But I suspect you knew that and are actually alleging that something like “there will be a HVT capture announced during this small span of days” is not a prediction since the particular HVT’s name was not specifically mentioned. Originally, I was merely alerting you what I thought was a relevant thread in my fora that you did not seem to be familiar with; I am not going to discuss whether the lack of a specific name invalidates any prediction. If my inquiry came across as rhetorical, it was not… without trying to be Euro-centric, I have found that the ‘search’ function doesn’t always yield good results with Arabic names when there seem to be multiple ways to spell the same name. So I do appreciate your alerting me to the particular discussion, and my inquiry about whether his name was mentioned was sincere and not snarky. Now, that said… I must say that there are a heck of a lot of people that would qualify as an “HVT,” especially since, unlike the playing cards for Iraq, there’s not even a definitive list of HVT names, as far as I know. Again drawing my “psychic” analogy – if we were evaluating the claims of a self-professed psychic, would we score this event a hit or refuse to score it for lack of specificity? - Rick ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/50 "2004-07-30T00:15:05Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > That’s what is alleged. Should I expect to see any major US newspaper report tomorrow that “Bush Conspiracy to disrupt DNC uncovered?” I doubt it. No. The mainstream media does not seem to have the courage to really go after Bush. They will report it only in glowing triumphic terms to the extent that they report it at all. Now that I think of it, this is probably a disappointment for the Bushies and maybe a “fuck you” from the Pakastanis. They coughed up an HVT but it wasn’t one of the ones that Bush really wanted. The White House can’t say that Pakistan didn’t deliver its order, but they delivered the twenty dollar champagne instead of the Dom. > [@](#): > > Because they’re evil, of course. Sarcasm, huh? You’re being evasive, **Mace** , you usually don’t do that. All you have to do to make me take off my aluminum headgear is explain why the White House would specify a _particular week_ in July for the Pakistanis to deliver a terrorist. Shouldn’t “when the fuck ever you catch one” be the more practical policy? And is it just a coincidence that the week they specified is the week of the DNC? ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/51 "2004-07-30T00:33:30Z")
> [@](#): > > Especially when the HVT was caught four days ago? Right! They should have called Rjung, who knows every terrorist in the world, to come in and do an instant verification! “Yup, that’s the guy, now take 'im away… can’t have him disrupting our carnival!” Shit, why waste time with all this “identity verification” and crap? Don’t they have bar codes and transmitters implanted in every citizen, like we do? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/52 "2004-07-30T00:49:02Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > No. The mainstream media does not seem to have the courage to really go after Bush. They will report it only in glowing triumphic terms to the extent that they report it at all. Now that I think of it, this is probably a disappointment for the Bushies and maybe a “fuck you” from the Pakastanis. They coughed up an HVT but it wasn’t one of the ones that Bush really wanted. The White House can’t say that Pakistan didn’t deliver its order, but they delivered the twenty dollar champagne instead of the Dom. > > Sarcasm, huh? You’re being evasive, **Mace** , you usually don’t do that. All you have to do to make me take off my aluminum headgear is explain why the White House would specify a _particular week_ in July for the Pakistanis to deliver a terrorist. Shouldn’t “when the fuck ever you catch one” be the more practical policy? > > And is it just a coincidence that the week they specified is the week of the DNC? It’s possible this whole thing was staged or planned or whatever by Bush. I just find it very hard to get the solid type of evidence I’d need to see in order to actually believe it. I can think of any number of reasons that “unnamed Pakaistani officials” might say all sorts of things either favorable or not favorable about Musharif (sp?) or Bush. Is this the supposed “HVT” of the earlier rumor? I dunno. How many Dopers ever heard of this particular guy before today? It’s like the movie where you’re absolutely sure you know the ending, only to find out that there are all sorts of pieces to the puzzle that the director chose not to show until the end. Furthermore, I don’t find these types of stories to be helpful toward the larger question-- do I want to vote for Bush or for Kerry. On that issue, I’ll make a judgement on the really hard facts that are out there. Things that don’t require \*\*any \*\* aluminum foil at all to understand. And if the mainstream press is too timid, how about Kerry himself? If this story is so rock-solid, when will Kerry come out and tell us how Bush is manipulating the war on terror to win votes? ---
**Author:** ![Alien](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/57b2e6/32.png) [@Alien](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alien)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/53 "2004-07-30T00:53:32Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Man, if Bush can get an “HVT” anytime he wants on schedule like this, I’m sure voting for him in Nov. I’ll bet Kerry could NEVER equal that performance. We need someone in the Whitehouse who can bring these guys in!! Come on **John** , you’re one of the smart posters on this board. If the current administration can capture HVT’s at will, that would mean they let these terrorist roam free to plan, contact people and organize for more terrorist attacks. Do you really believe that? As for the news itself, you can all be sure that every time Pakistan conducts a raid and captures a person suspected af being a high level terrorist, a phone call is made to the authorities in the country where he’s wanted. The administration new about this ahead, the only question is how far ahead. Did the US have to supply DNA, for instance? And I can also tell you, based on my years of work as a “spin master” in Public Relation, that _never ever_ has a government official scheduled a press conference or a major news break past midnight local time, unless the story is already ongoing. My take on this is that Pakistan had intelligence data which they acted upon now, possibly after some time of surveillance. They get a friendly, but not warm, nod from the US. They have proven that they can and some of the pressure is off, yet is not a home run. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/54 "2004-07-30T01:06:21Z")
> [@](#): > > If this story is so rock-solid, when will Kerry come out and tell us how Bush is manipulating the war on terror to win votes? I don’t think it’s rock solid, i just think it’s fishy. If there had been no New Republic story I wouldn’t give it a second thought. I’m not accusing, I’m _asking_- why did they specify the week of the DNC for a capture? It’s awfully coincidental if nothing else- not that they caught a dude during the week of the DNC but that they caught one after a New Republic story _said_ that they were pressuring Pakistan for such a capture during this very week. I’m willing to give a wide degree of latitude for genuine happenstance. It’s possible that the capture on sunday was pure chance. Having said that, There’s no doubt in my mind that they would hold off on an announcement to manipulate the news cycle- that’s just fucking routine politics. If the Dems get a video of GWB molesting a poodle tomorrow, they will save until it’s Bush’s night to speak at the RNC. That’s just part of the game, There’s nothing exceptionally dirty about it and it requires no foil products to suspect it. It’s using a fortuitous event to the best political advantage. I would not cry conspiracy for that. It’s just that I’ve got a little Columbo in the back of my head with that one last little question. Why did they specify that THIS would be a preferred week for a capture. Oh- and Kerry can’t make an issue of it because if he did, the media would make him out to be a loon. He’d be cutting his own throat. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Iskander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/db5fbb/32.png) [@New\_Iskander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Iskander)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/55 "2004-07-30T01:17:09Z")
I agree. The whole set-up just reeks. These are highly sensitive times for the opposition, crucial even. Whoever Bush arrests from now on should be kept entirely secret until November. No more fucking leaks. That’s for the good of the country. And no more terror alerts, either. Can’t they just flood the streets with secret police without making any announcements? What that? _Plain clothes_, of course, what are you, some kind of stupid? ---
**Author:** ![Atticus\_Finch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Atticus\_Finch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atticus_Finch)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/56 "2004-07-30T01:24:48Z")
> [@SPOOFE](#): > > Right! They should have called Rjung, who knows every terrorist in the world, to come in and do an instant verification! “Yup, that’s the guy, now take 'im away… can’t have him disrupting our carnival!” Shit, why waste time with all this “identity verification” and crap? Don’t they have bar codes and transmitters implanted in every citizen, like we do? This has already been addressed. > [@Polerius](#): > > From [FoxNews](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,127475,00.html) > > > [@](#): > > > > Hayyat announced the arrest after midnight in Pakistan in an interview with Geo television, an unusually late hour considering the arrests were made Sunday and **authorities had known but not revealed the man’s identity for some days.** ---
**Author:** ![buttonjockey308](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@buttonjockey308](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buttonjockey308)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/57 "2004-07-30T01:30:09Z")
I’m not sure about any July suprise, but I must say I’m a little more than troubled that Todd Bridges has been arrested. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/58 "2004-07-30T01:31:32Z")
> [@New Iskander](#): > > I agree. The whole set-up just reeks. These are highly sensitive times for the opposition, crucial even. Whoever Bush arrests from now on should be kept entirely secret until November. No more fucking leaks. That’s for the good of the country. And no more terror alerts, either. Can’t they just flood the streets with secret police without making any announcements? What that? _Plain clothes_, of course, what are you, some kind of stupid? Do I sense a note of sarcasm? Like I said, I would not be suspicious if the White House had not told Pakistan, “Listen, fuckos, we need a big bust around the last week of July. Sometime early in week would just rock. No later than thursday, though, m’kay?” Remove that element from the story and I ould be a carping crackpot for making an issue of this. At least _explain_ it. Provide a non political reason why this week was more optimal than last week for the capture of “any HVT” (including Sammy the B, by the way). It may very well be that there’s a very good reason that I’m too stupid to see. For the time being though I’m going to have to say :dubious:. ---
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/59 "2004-07-30T01:37:46Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > . . . I don’t recall anyone predicting that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention. . . . What a mindless fucking idiot you are, Bricker. Of all the mindless fucking idiots on these Boards, Bricker, you have got to be the most mindless, idiotic fucker of them all. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Mudd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f14d63/32.png) [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2004, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488/60 "2004-07-30T01:38:20Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I must say that there are a heck of a lot of people that would qualify as an “HVT,” especially since, unlike the playing cards for Iraq, there’s not even a definitive list of HVT names, as far as I know. [Here ya go](http://www.fbi.gov/mostwant/terrorists/fugitives.htm). #8 on the shortlist, our guy is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ladies-and-gents-the-july-surprise-on-schedule/257488.md?page=4)