# Lake Mead at 36% of Capacity **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 17, 2021, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482 "2021-06-17T18:53:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/21 "2021-06-19T02:24:22Z")
My take is that the Western U.S. has a bleak future, and that bleakness will arrive faster than people are prepared for ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/22 "2021-06-19T02:26:53Z")
I’ve seriously considered the idea of moving to a place like Northern Ohio or Eastern Michigan for the same reasons that have been kicked around here. I s’pose the US could just get on with it and invade Canada. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/23 "2021-06-19T02:50:34Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > My take is that the Western U.S. has a bleak future, and that bleakness will arrive faster than people are prepared for It’s not just the West. Depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer combined with climate changes says America’s breadbasket is in peril as well. > **[Farmers are depleting the Ogallala Aquifer because the government pays them...](https://theconversation.com/farmers-are-depleting-the-ogallala-aquifer-because-the-government-pays-them-to-do-it-145501)** > > An invisible crisis is brewing in US farm country as the overpumped Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer drains. The key drivers are federal farm subsidies and the tax code. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/24 "2021-06-19T03:13:10Z")
Yep, climate change is a civilization killer. It’s going to take our 401ks and Roth IRAs and shove them up our asses. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/25 "2021-06-19T03:20:59Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It’s going to take our 401ks and Roth IRAs and shove them up our asses. The good news is they’ll be so small that they won’t hurt going in. Much. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/26 "2021-06-19T04:49:13Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > My take is that the Western U.S. has a bleak future, and that bleakness will arrive faster than people are prepared for 10 years ago, I was pretty sure that things wouldn’t go to shit in my lifetime. Now I am just hoping they don’t go to shit in Mom’s lifetime because she’s just too old to deal with it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/27 "2021-06-19T04:56:03Z")
We need more power that is carbon free, not less. Otherwise the situation gets worse, fast. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/28 "2021-06-19T04:59:15Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > The problem is that **the climate has changed.** There is no going back at this point. Either those served by Lake Mead and Hoover Dam adapt or they die. The climate change has not been a big effect on rainfall in CA. It fluctuates. _It has always fluctuated._ This a a drought year. Next year may be a flood year. Let us hope, it is and not too bad flooding. Now, the temp is going up, and that does mean more evaporation and water use. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/29 "2021-06-19T05:00:54Z")
And we know now he was very wrong. We need carbon free power. Not to mention, doing a few thousand $ of damage does not do anything in the big scheme. It is just low level eco-terrorism. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/30 "2021-06-19T05:14:16Z")
I figure I’ve got about 25-45 years left. Shit is definitely going to go to shit in my lifetime if my own self-projected lifespan is accurate. I hope I live long enough to cash out on my retirement and check out just before the diarrhea hits the turbofan. ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/31 "2021-06-19T05:29:10Z")
We didn’t have children and we both retired early. We both knew the center wasn’t holding, but COVID seems to have made things start falling apart much faster than expected. The rough beast has stopped slouching and is now scrambling. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 8:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/32 "2021-06-19T08:18:28Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > My take is that the Western U.S. has a bleak future, and that bleakness will arrive faster than people are prepared for Yep. And they’ll whine and then howl that they need water that belongs to other people and demand more pipelines to run more rivers dry and pout and cry when told sorry, no one else is giving you water. Make do with what you have, or move to where the water is rather than moving the water someplace else. I expect at least two more threads this year about siphoning off the Great Lakes to feed the thirst of the West. Sorry, no, ain’t gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/33 "2021-06-19T08:23:50Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > We need more power that is carbon free, not less. > > Otherwise the situation gets worse, fast. Even if we went 100% carbon-free tomorrow the situation is STILL going to get worse, and fast. You can’t halt a trend in a system as large as the entire weather system of a planet quickly. Too many feed-back loops. > [@DrDeth](#): > > The climate change has not been a big effect on rainfall in CA. It fluctuates. _It has always fluctuated._ This a a drought year. Next year may be a flood year. Let us hope, it is and not too bad flooding. > > Now, the temp is going up, and that does mean more evaporation and water use. 21 years into a drought and you’re still using the “fluctuating” line? OK. You’re wrong but I doubt I convince you of that. Temperature records falling left and right year after year but hey, it’s “fluctuation”. I’m am continually gob-smacked that anyone over the age of 40 can deny climate change. I’ve seen it in my lifetime, things have changed. Hell, the 20-somethings seem to be able to see it even if they haven’t experienced it. Meanwhile the old farts keeping repeating “well, that was an outlier”. When you get one after another “outliers” it’s time to re-calibrate. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/34 "2021-06-19T10:58:51Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I’m curious if shade balls or some equivalent technology could be deployed at scale here to mitigate evaporation and buy us time. A bit of a hijack, but apparently shade balls are primarily used to prevent the sun from causing chemical reactions that create carcinogens like bromate. Not for evaporation (although they do help with that). ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/35 "2021-06-19T12:32:09Z")
Either that or desalination of the Pacific and building the infrastructure that goes with it. We’ve become accustomed to having cheap water. We may soon have to get used to a new price tag. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/36 "2021-06-19T13:03:28Z")
The first step is regulations that you can’t let more water through a dam in any year than the average yearly input into that dam’s watershed. Probably include a safety margin in there as well, scaling with how full the reservoir is, so we can actually start refilling the reservoirs. All that would take would be the passage of one law. We could do it right this moment, with no technological advances and no capital outlay. Which means it’s probably not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/37 "2021-06-19T13:37:28Z")
The central fault of the whole western water system is that they pretty well did something similar back around 1900. They carefully measured the historical average water flow as best they could with the tech of the time. Then they divvied that assumed water supply up pro-rata between the affected states and within those states between agriculture and non-agriculture. Then they built infrastructure to manage floods and droughts and to move water from where it was most abundant to where it was most needed. While minimizing loss and wastage as best they could given the tech of the time. So far so smart & sound. Just a few problems: - Modern paleo-climate science shows us that the measurement period they chose, the immediately preceding ~50 years, was one of the wettest in the last 5,000 years. The collective watershed has underperformed ever since with only occasional extra wet years. - Politics got involved, so a little over-allocation was done here and there to grease the skids to get a deal. By the end everybody was just a little bit pregnant. - Agriculture was consuming pretty much their full allocation of water by 1950 and also using some of the then-unused part of the urban water allocation. Then post WWII suburbia and the advent of home air conditioning caused Los Angeles and Phoenix and Las Vegas and Denver and … . Meanwhile modern refrigerated transportation turned large parts of sunny but parched CA & AZ into the preeminent fruit / veg / nut supplier to the whole USA. On an annual basis we’re now extracting 12 lbs out of bag marked 10 lbs that only ever had 9 +/-1 lbs in it. Soon to be only 6 +/- 2. Yep, variability will be both larger, and longer lasting. [N.B. Those are metaphorical numbers, not scientifically valid stats about actual inputs and outputs.] Returning to @Chronos’ eminently sensible suggestion, even deciding that we’ll agree to only extracting 6 lbs starting now would entail endless fighting about whether it’s 6 or 5.5 or 6.5 today and what it will be 15 years from now. And how to handle variability on a 1- to 5-years timescale. That’s before we decide which half of the western economy to simply shut down and depopulate to get along with ~6 lbs. ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/38 "2021-06-19T13:44:51Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > desalination of the Pacific And what do you do with all that waste salt? Salt the earth, or the local waters? ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/39 "2021-06-19T13:46:32Z")
Can’t you just dump it back in the ocean? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2021, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482/40 "2021-06-19T13:48:01Z")
The ocean is big. That plan worked OK for plastics and for fishing rights and … didn’t it? 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lake-mead-at-36-of-capacity/944482.md?page=3)