# Large earthquake in Northeast Japan **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 11, 2011, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279 "2011-03-11T06:10:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/482 "2011-03-16T03:08:18Z")
> [@TokyoPlayer](#): > > I don’t know about tsunami insurance, as our house is not in a danger zone. > > We have earthquake insurance, which costs several hundred dollars per year, but will only pay for 50% of the replacement cost of the house, and nothing for personal belongings. > > A lot of people don’t carry earthquake insurance, but enough do that it’s likely the insurance companies will go bankrupt if the Big One hits Tokyo. I’m sure they don’t have enough money in reserves. > > Many people wound up bankrupt after the Kobe earthquake, still owing money on homes, and unable to rebuild. > > If you own a condo, then a certain percentage of people must agree to rebuild. > > Moral of the story, life somewhere else. 😉 The tsunami hit mostly farm land. Is that a different insurance circumstance. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/483 "2011-03-16T03:20:06Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > leaving is smart tokyoplayer. during tmi’s troubles in pennsylvania they evacuated pregnant women and small children for miles and miles. > > as the plant disaster is now at a level 6, and not coming under control it is a very smart move. > > right now the wind is blowing out to sea. there is a cold front coming over the weekend that will put the wind blowing into land. with earthquakes going off on both coasts and a volcano in the south where do you evacuate people? esp. when you have hundreds of thousands of evacuees already. > > this all hinges on 50 very tired, very courageous workers. The workers were pulled out. Effort abandoned. Radiation levels are too high. [ > [@](#): > > Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility. ]([http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS\_JAPAN\_EARTHQUAKE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-03-15-22-35-46](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_JAPAN_EARTHQUAKE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-03-15-22-35-46)) ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/484 "2011-03-16T03:21:04Z")
One of my friends, an English teacher in Mishima, just told me he’s leaving. The Shindo 6 that hit Shizuoka yesterday has him rattled. He was already upset by the earthquake and tsunami that happened in the north of Japan, as well as ongoing concerns about the nuclear reactors, but he felt relatively safe being well south of Tokyo. With the new quake, the epicenter of which was south of him in Shizuoka but still close, he says he’s had it and is too freaked out to stick around. He said his entire apartment shook. [It’s sad that people are beginning to flee](http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110315/japan-shizuoka-earthquake-110315/20110315/?hub=CalgaryHome) (my friend’s not the only one), but I have to say I don’t blame him. Who knows what’s going to happen next? ---
**Author:** ![Sodalite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/34f0e0/32.png) [@Sodalite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sodalite)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/485 "2011-03-16T03:22:25Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > leaving is smart tokyoplayer. during tmi’s troubles in pennsylvania they evacuated pregnant women and small children for miles and miles. > > as the plant disaster is now at a level 6, and not coming under control it is a very smart move. > > right now the wind is blowing out to sea. there is a cold front coming over the weekend that will put the wind blowing into land. with earthquakes going off on both coasts and a volcano in the south where do you evacuate people? esp. when you have hundreds of thousands of evacuees already. > > this all hinges on 50 very tired, very courageous workers. [Everyone has been ordered out of the plant for now.](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42084187/ns/world_news-asiapacific/?gt1=43001) ETA: Ha! Simulpost. Mine is a link to the full story on the worker evac. They may be able to go back in later today. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/486 "2011-03-16T03:29:18Z")
good heavens! sooooo, no one is watching the plants? oy! no wonder the pm was heard reaming out tepco officials today. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/487 "2011-03-16T03:39:06Z")
**Tokyo Player** , don’t worry about it. Just vamoose! I’m seeing estimates this will cost the insurance industry US$35 billion. I find it amazing this is less than the Hurricane Katrina cost of $45 billion. This disaster seems much, much worse. Meanwhile: [Fraudsters break all records in Japan relief ripoffs](http://www.boingboing.net/2011/03/15/fraudsters-break-all.html) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/488 "2011-03-16T03:41:05Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > You know, Japan IS the country that rebuilt two cities leveled by atomic bombs. I wouldn’t underestimate their resilience or their ability to rebuild. > > And there’s no way Fukushima will go “full Chernobyl” - completely different reactor set up, we’re not going to have chunks of core launched out of the pit and littering the neighborhood like in Chernobyl. Yes, there will be a nasty mess but it will be very, very localized. Most of what’s gotten out at all has been the sort of thing that decays into harmlessness rapidly, in days or weeks. That’s simply not true. Chernobyl didn’t have the strong inner core with an outer core like these reactors do. In this case, reactor 1 and 3 have lost their outer core with their stronger inner cores intact. However, reactor 2’s inner core is breached. It’s a ticking time bomb waiting for hydrogen gas to fill the outer core and blow. On a surreal note, I wonder if Paul Mccartney has seen the video of the town playing their adopted song [“Yesterday”](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNYAwcKl-_k) at 5pm like they always do. ---
**Author:** ![Sodalite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/34f0e0/32.png) [@Sodalite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sodalite)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/489 "2011-03-16T03:46:48Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > **Tokyo Player** , don’t worry about it. Just vamoose! > > I’m seeing estimates this will cost the insurance industry US$35 billion. I find it amazing this is less than the Hurricane Katrina cost of $45 billion. This disaster seems much, much worse. > > Meanwhile: [Fraudsters break all records in Japan relief ripoffs](http://www.boingboing.net/2011/03/15/fraudsters-break-all.html) I found a very [useful article](http://www.slate.com/id/2288243/) on how to donate the right way. I passed it along to everyone in my anime club yesterday after we got a notice about a fund raiser on campus. Just a couple of words can make a huge difference in how effectively your money gets used. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/490 "2011-03-16T03:47:19Z")
the big trouble seems to be the spent rods that are not in containment chambers. they are in a pool with only the outer chamber around them. the fires in #4 are believed to be caused by water evaporation in the spent pool. that could be huge trouble if the outer chamber doesn’t hold. ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/491 "2011-03-16T03:47:21Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > On a surreal note, I wonder if Paul Mccartney has seen the video of the town playing their adopted song [“Yesterday”](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNYAwcKl-_k) at 5pm like they always do. Incredible and Haunting irony. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/492 "2011-03-16T03:53:31Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > That’s simply not true. Chernobyl didn’t have the strong inner core with an outer core like these reactors do. . Yes, but what blew the hell out of Chernobyl was a massive spike in the power the reactor was producing. These shut down and possibly partially melted reactors are not capable of producing such a spike. Also, once Chernobyl blew its top, it was basically a giant pile of burning coal with radioactive material mixed in. These reactors might or might not burn (but probably wont) but it sure won’t be on a Chernobyl scale. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/493 "2011-03-16T04:14:20Z")
BBC TV now saying something about a 6.0 quake just off Tokyo has rocked buildings in that city. Just now, or within the past 20 or 30 minutes. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/494 "2011-03-16T04:49:50Z")
> [@billfish678](#): > > Yes, but what blew the hell out of Chernobyl was a massive spike in the power the reactor was producing. These shut down and possibly partially melted reactors are not capable of producing such a spike. Also, once Chernobyl blew its top, it was basically a giant pile of burning coal with radioactive material mixed in. These reactors might or might not burn (but probably wont) but it sure won’t be on a Chernobyl scale. If number 2 is already breached and it blows it’s outer containment it’s going to be on the scale of chernobyl. We’re talking about a breached core open to the outside. It doesn’t help when all the workers are pulled away from the plant. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/495 "2011-03-16T04:55:28Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > If number 2 is already breached and it blows it’s outer containment it’s going to be on the scale of chernobyl. We’re talking about a breached core open to the outside. It doesn’t help when all the workers are pulled away from the plant. Are large fractions of it going to be blown into the air? Is the pile thats left going to be on fire, pumping a large fraction of the remaining radioactive mass into the air? I am not enough of an expert to say no to either, but then again IMO I don’t think either are likely either. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/496 "2011-03-16T05:07:16Z")
> [@billfish678](#): > > Are large fractions of it going to be blown into the air? Is the pile thats left going to be on fire, pumping a large fraction of the remaining radioactive mass into the air? > > I am not enough of an expert to say no to either, but then again IMO I don’t think either are likely either. I don’t know squat either but I do know the breach is already leaking outside the plant. If it goes critical and the top is open then you have 2 problems. One will be radioactive steam and the other will be ground contamination if it burns through. Supposedly these plants were designed to shut off during an earthquake which means the control rods are set to maximum absorption of radiation. Then it takes days to cool down which still means they need coolant during the shutdown period. The coolant stopped on day one and we’re seeing the results. On top of all of this the holding tanks for spent fuel rods need cooling. This is a serious mess. It may not distribute as much radioactivity as Chernobyl but the possibility of it being an open core meltdown is there. ---
**Author:** ![JpnDude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/838e76/32.png) [@JpnDude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JpnDude)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/497 "2011-03-16T05:58:25Z")
It’s great that you got a flight out with your family **TokyoPlayer**. Many non-native friends are leaving the country, and Japanese from western and southern Japan living in Tokyo are returning to their hometowns. Even in the middle of the day, Tokyo seems eerily (and relatively) quiet these days. I reckon that I live about 50km closer than TokyoPlayer to Fukushima. I just keep checking the wind direction. Hoping for the best. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/498 "2011-03-16T06:15:01Z")
> [@billfish678](#): > > Are large fractions of it going to be blown into the air? Is the pile thats left going to be on fire, pumping a large fraction of the remaining radioactive mass into the air? > > **I am not enough of an expert** to say no to either, but then again IMO I don’t think either are likely either. my emphasis. And what, pray tell is the basis of your judgment? Are you a nuclear engineer? A professor of physics? Smarter than these people? Know something that they don’t? Maybe you can tell use exactly why your opinion should be taken seriously. > [@](#): > > [“This is scary,” said Lake Barrett, a nuclear engineer who directed the cleanup of the Three Mile Island nuclear facility in Pennsylvania after the 1979 accident there.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/latest-nuclear-plant-explosion-in-japan-raises-radiation-fears/2011/03/15/ABwTmha_story.html?hpid=z1) > [@](#): > > “[We are on the brink](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=world). We are now facing the worst-case scenario,” said Hiroaki Koide, a senior reactor engineering specialist at the Research Reactor Institute of Kyoto University. “We can assume that the containment vessel at Reactor No. 2 is already breached. If there is heavy melting inside the reactor, large amounts of radiation will most definitely be released.” ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/499 "2011-03-16T06:24:16Z")
> [@JpnDude](#): > > I reckon that I live about 50km closer than TokyoPlayer to Fukushima. I just keep checking the wind direction. Hoping for the best. Good luck. I really don’t think it necessary to leave, but because I can I might as well get out while it’s not an emergency. I can work anywhere there is an Internet connection so Taipei will be a good place to watch. I’m advising friends who stay to watch the news carefully. Under normal wind speeds, you will have about 8 hours or so after an incident before the radioactive cloud would hit. Less if there is a strong wind. Be ready to leave quickly. Take the train, not a car, and leave as quick as you can to try to beat the crowds. Have some cash with you all the time. Have a plan. I sincerely hope that our family are the ones overreacting and that we’ll come back from our “vacation” to a solved problem that didn’t get out of hand. You, your family, and other friends and families will be in our thoughts. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/500 "2011-03-16T06:37:11Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > [It’s sad that people are beginning to flee](http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110315/japan-shizuoka-earthquake-110315/20110315/?hub=CalgaryHome) (my friend’s not the only one), but I have to say I don’t blame him. Who knows what’s going to happen next? I actually think the people who are leaving are _helping_ those who are forced to stay. That’s fewer people requiring gas, which is being rationed; fewer people needing food and water, which is in short supply; and fewer people using electricity, availability of which is drastically reduced. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/501 "2011-03-16T06:55:13Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > I actually think the people who are leaving are _helping_ those who are forced to stay. That’s fewer people requiring gas, which is being rationed; fewer people needing food and water, which is in short supply; and fewer people using electricity, availability of which is drastically reduced. I agree. If you aren’t involved in the physical relief effort then get out of dodge and send money back. You’re just sucking down scarce resources. I keep looking at the rubble and wonder if people could take all the piles of wood and recycle them directly back into the community. They could probably salvage 40 percent of the framing material. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279.md?page=26)