# Large earthquake in Northeast Japan **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 11, 2011, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279 "2011-03-11T06:10:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 31
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/602 "2011-03-18T09:35:34Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > If left exposed for too long the fuel pellets melt and fall to the bottom of the core. If it continues, all the fuel melts into a pool at the bottom of the core, continues to overheat — and at some point with loss of neutron moderation in the molten pool it becomes self-accelerating — until nothing can contain it and it burns through the core, i.e. the China Syndrome. All of the well-informed posts, news articles and other information I have read in the last couple days says that the chance of a “China Syndrome” is zero. The way you’re using the phrase seems to be that if it “burns through the core” (e.g. primary containment?) then that’s a China Syndrome. But that’s not what the phrase actually means. China Syndrome (from the fictional movie) means that the molten core burns through main containment _and_the bottom of the building and travels into the earth. Even assuming the reactor(s) in Japan do completely melt down and become molten, the molten material will be stopped by the thick concrete foundation of the structure. It is impossible for it to it to burn through the foundation and penetrate deep underground. Even in the much more shitty construction of Chernobyl that did not have such thick concrete foundations as Japan, a “China Syndrome” did not occur. > [@](#): > > Contact with other material or any liquid, along with accumulated hydrogen will result in explosive dispersal of the highly radioactive material — not as a nuclear bomb — but a far worse kind of dirty “bomb” in terms of radioactive contamination of hundreds or thousands of square kilometres depending on prevailing winds. How can you take a cite seriously when it says that a dirty bomb is “far worse” than a nuclear bomb? A nuclear bomb has huge heat and immediate destruction AND widespread nuclear fallout. A dirty bomb is certainly no picnic and can cause huge problems, but it’s a _much much_ smaller local explosion and the spread of nuclear fallout to a smaller area than a true nuclear bomb. > [@](#): > > The long-lived byproducts of uranium fission including uranium-234, neptunium-237, plutonium-238 and americium-241 are the truly nasty problematic ones because they persist for thousands of years. Actually, from my limited knowledge of physics my understanding is that it’s certainly not good to spread long-lived nuclear byproducts around the environment willy-nilly, but the long-lived byproducts are not the “truly nasty problematic ones.” By definition, long-lived byproducts have a longer half-life and are thus _less_ radioactive. It’s the short-lived byproducts which are more radioactive and pose much more of a threat. Isotopes that persist for days or weeks or decades are a problem, but those that persist for thousands of years!!!1!! ZOMG!! have very little radioactivity and are not much of a threat. As has already been pointed out in this thread, the Japanese rebuilt Hiroshima and Nagasaki on their original sites, and it’s not like they’re all dropping dead or having long-term devastating health consequences. Also, I just have to ask - **Magiver** , you’ve been a member of the board for almost eight years, do you have something against quote tags? Putting your cites in **bright blue** instead of quote tags is a little annoying. Also, in the past on this board there has often been a correlation between hysterical and/or illogical posters and the use of **colorful** _ **excessively emphasized** _ FONTS!!! ---
**Author:** ![Raguleader](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/258eb7/32.png) [@Raguleader](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raguleader)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/603 "2011-03-18T10:11:29Z")
> [@Waenara](#): > > Also, in the past on this board there has often been a correlation between hysterical and/or illogical posters and the use of **colorful** _ **excessively emphasized** _ FONTS!!! _ **Hey now, I resemble that remark!😃** _ ---
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/604 "2011-03-18T10:35:50Z")
> [@Raguleader](#): > > _ **Hey now, I resemble that remark!😃** _ **As a blast from the past, this post has been graped** ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/605 "2011-03-18T11:42:00Z")
> [@Waenara](#): > > All of the well-informed posts, news articles and other information I have read in the last couple days says that the chance of a “China Syndrome” is zero. The way you’re using the phrase seems to be that if it “burns through the core” (e.g. primary containment?) then that’s a China Syndrome. But that’s not what the phrase actually means. China Syndrome (from the fictional movie) means that the molten core burns through main containment _and_the bottom of the building and travels into the earth. The term as used by the author described a runaway situation. What occurred in Chernobyl involved dumping sand and boron on top of the pile and injecting liquid nitrogen underneath it. That was after the core was exposed. The cores have not exploded at Fukushima yet and won’t likely but the situation existed during shut down. Had they not been able to vent the inner core then the hydrogen buildup presented a serious situation. As cited they already had an incident with a vent valve sticking. It was no small event to have a building explode that could be heard 25 miles away. That’s a substantial amount of energy to impart on the infrastructure such as monitoring equipment, electronics, valves, pipes etc… > [@Waenara](#): > > Even assuming the reactor(s) in Japan do completely melt down and become molten, the molten material will be stopped by the thick concrete foundation of the structure. It is impossible for it to it to burn through the foundation and penetrate deep underground. Even in the much more shitty construction of Chernobyl that did not have such thick concrete foundations as Japan, a “China Syndrome” did not occur. As already stated, it didn’t burn through because they drilled and injected liquid nitrogen underneath it while trying to stop the reaction from above. [Where it stands now 1 week later:](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42124500/ns/world_news-asiapacific/?GT1=43001) “‘Unit 3 is our utmost priority’ Smoke billowed from Unit 2 at the plant, and its cause was not known. An explosion hit the building on Tuesday, possibly damaging a crucial cooling chamber that sits below the reactor core.” They’re STILL using helicopters to try to cool the reactors which means they haven’t successfully shut them down. > [@Waenara](#): > > How can you take a cite seriously when it says that a dirty bomb is “far worse” than a nuclear bomb? A nuclear bomb has huge heat and immediate destruction AND widespread nuclear fallout. A dirty bomb is certainly no picnic and can cause huge problems, but it’s a _much much_ smaller local explosion and the spread of nuclear fallout to a smaller area than a true nuclear bomb. The statement you’re questioning was self explanatory. “in terms of radioactive contamination” as in Chernobyl. If any of the cores exploded it would have spread contamination in a way that would render the area uninhabitable. As I stated earlier, it would be a bigger deal for Japan to lose real estate than Russia. They have a much higher population density. A smaller area of uninhabitable land would be a bigger burden. > [@Waenara](#): > > Actually, from my limited knowledge of physics my understanding is that it’s certainly not good to spread long-lived nuclear byproducts around the environment willy-nilly, but the long-lived byproducts are not the “truly nasty problematic ones.” By definition, long-lived byproducts have a longer half-life and are thus _less_ radioactive. It’s the short-lived byproducts which are more radioactive and pose much more of a threat. Isotopes that persist for days or weeks or decades are a problem, but those that persist for thousands of years!!!1!! ZOMG!! have very little radioactivity and are not much of a threat. As has already been pointed out in this thread, the Japanese rebuilt Hiroshima and Nagasaki on their original sites, and it’s not like they’re all dropping dead or having long-term devastating health consequences. The difference between a fully detonated bomb and a dirty bomb is the difference between Hiroshima and Chernobyl. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/606 "2011-03-18T13:02:14Z")
**Magiver** , your use of terminology continues to be confusing. Could you please explain exactly what you mean when you say “inner core” and “outer core”? Because it seems to be different from the way those terms are used by people in the industry (and everyone else in this thread, for that matter). My understanding as someone who is not a nuclear expert but has done a lot of layman-level reading on this issue is that “inner core” typically refers to the reactor pressure vessel itself. I have no idea what “outer core” is supposed to mean. That term seems nonsensical to me, but again maybe someone else knows more and can explain. ---
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/607 "2011-03-18T13:04:43Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > The cores have not exploded at Fukushima yet and won’t likely but the situation existed during shut down. Had they not been able to vent the inner core then the hydrogen buildup presented a serious situation. Yes, the hydrogen was a serious situation. And they were able to vent it. What does that have to do with a “China Syndrome” And how can you say the “situation” of core explosion could have existed during shut down? Once the earthquake was detected the reactors shut down without incident. There was no out of control power surge like with Chernobyl. It’s a completely different situation. > [@](#): > > As already stated, it didn’t burn through because they drilled and injected liquid nitrogen underneath it while trying to stop the reaction from above. Good for them, maybe that helped keep the molten core from not going through the subbasement. But Fukushima _does_ have a thick concrete underlay. So what does this have to do with anything in the current situation? > [@](#): > > They’re STILL using helicopters to try to cool the reactors which means they haven’t successfully shut them down. My impression from the recent news is that the helicopter drops are also trying to cool the core, but primarily they’re trying to cool the spent fuel rods, which may or may not have completely empty pools. Thinking about it, even if there are small cracks in the primary and/or secondary containment, how much water would actually get into the reactor core? Very little. Whereas the spent fuel rods are more exposed and would benefit more from water drops. Also, my impression from the recent news is that the spent fuel rods may be as big a problem as the reactors, if not an even bigger problem. > [@](#): > > If any of the cores exploded it would have spread contamination in a way that would render the area uninhabitable. As I stated earlier, it would be a bigger deal for Japan to lose real estate than Russia. They have a much higher population density. A smaller area of uninhabitable land would be a bigger burden. But the cores _did not_ explode as they did in Chernobyl. Even if the cooling fails and the fuel rods either in the core or in the spent fuel rod ponds do melt down, they will not “explode”. If they melt they will release some radioactive material into the air, but they won’t blow up like Chernobyl, which actually spewed big chunks of radioactive material miles away. That’s what made the area totally uninhabitable. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/608 "2011-03-18T13:57:58Z")
> [@](#): > > The Consequence of Cesium-137 Release > > A 400 t PWR pool holds about 10 times more long-lived radioactivity than a reactor core. A radioactive release from such a pool would cause catastrophic consequences. > > One major concern is the fission product cesium-137 (Cs-137), which made a major contribution (about three quarters) to the long-term radiological impact of the 1986 Chernobyl accident. > > A spent fuel pool would contain tens of million curies of Cs-137. Cs-137 has a 30 year half-life; it is relatively volatile and a potent land contaminant. In comparison, the April 1986 Chernobyl accident released about 2 Mega Curies (MCi) Cs-137 into the atmosphere from the core of the 1,000 MWe unit 4. > > It is estimated that over 100,000 residents were permanently evacuated because of contamination by Cs-137.The total area of the radiation-control zone is about 10,000 km², in which the contamination level is greater than 15 Ci/km² of Cs-137.[[6]](http://www.inesap.org/sites/default/files/inesap_old/bulletin22/bul22art30.htm#a6) > > A typical 1 GWe PWR core contains about 80 t fuels. Each year about one third of the core fuel is discharged into the pool. A pool with 15 year storage capacity will hold about 400 t spent fuel. To estimate the Cs-137 inventory in the pool, for example, we assume the Cs137 inventory at shutdown is about 0.1 MCi/tU with a burn-up of 50,000 MWt-day/tU, thus the pool with 400 t of ten year old SNF would hold about 33 MCi Cs-137.[[7]](http://www.inesap.org/sites/default/files/inesap_old/bulletin22/bul22art30.htm#a7) > > Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire,[[8]](http://www.inesap.org/sites/default/files/inesap_old/bulletin22/bul22art30.htm#a8) the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated.[[9]](http://www.inesap.org/sites/default/files/inesap_old/bulletin22/bul22art30.htm#a9) > > For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl). > > Thus, it is necessary to take security measures to prevent such an event from happening. [http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological\_terrorism.html](http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html) ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/609 "2011-03-18T15:17:42Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > The wife has decided maybe she’s not going to that conference in Kyoto this September after all. > [@Colophon](#): > > Kyoto, in September? I can’t see that will be a problem at all. My wife’s cousin lives in Kyoto and things are fine even now. She says thanks, but she’ll still sit this one out. She attended the same one two years ago. Maybe next year or so. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/610 "2011-03-18T15:34:50Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Finally, the Thai government is bowing to the pressure. [Evacuation plans for Thai nationals are now being readied](http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/227191/fm-outlines-vacuation-plan). Yes, the Thai government, caught off guard by the force of the criticism, has changed tack and is now going to rescue all its Thai brethren stuck in Japan. All 20,000 of them, 5000 of whom are ominously missing. Story [here](http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/227272/plans-ready-to-help-20000-thais). ---
**Author:** ![johnpost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@johnpost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/johnpost)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/611 "2011-03-18T15:36:05Z")
japan has now rated this a level 5 nuclear accident. france has suggested it is a level 6. the International Atomic Energy Agency has given no rating. low levels of radiation have been detected south of Tokyo. also from the AP this morning: "The actions authorities are taking to cool the reactors are the best ones available, experts say. Eventually, the plant may be entombed in concrete, as was done hastily after the 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident. But pressures and temperatures must be controlled before then, said Mario V. Bonaca, an adviser to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Otherwise, he said, overheated nuclear fuel will melt or burst through the sand, cement or other covering and release more radiation. " ---
**Author:** ![Hokkaido\_Brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/d26b3c/32.png) [@Hokkaido\_Brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hokkaido_Brit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/612 "2011-03-18T15:41:04Z")
While all this talk and panic over the reactors and evacuating foreigners is going on, the 20,000 dead or missing and the 450,000 displaced people and the 300km of destroyed coastline is going pretty much forgotten. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/613 "2011-03-18T15:51:38Z")
> [@Hokkaido\_Brit](#): > > While all this talk and panic over the reactors and evacuating foreigners is going on, the 20,000 dead or missing and the 450,000 displaced people and the 300km of destroyed coastline is going pretty much forgotten. forgotten by you? I don’t think anyone else has forgotten, and I’m sure the Japanese are doing just about everything they can do, but it’s a little harder to airchair quarterback the rescue efforts, which are probably going about as well as they can. The Japanese are far better at this sort of disaster than the US is. ---
**Author:** ![Hokkaido\_Brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/d26b3c/32.png) [@Hokkaido\_Brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hokkaido_Brit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/614 "2011-03-18T16:00:08Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > forgotten by you? I don’t think anyone else has forgotten, and I’m sure the Japanese are doing just about everything they can do, but it’s a little harder to airchair quarterback the rescue efforts, which are probably going about as well as they can. The Japanese are far better at this sort of disaster than the US is. Hardly forgotten by me. My husband is one of the 100,000 search and rescue on the ground. It is never out of my mind. Our ancestral home is in Iwate along with lots of relatives. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/615 "2011-03-18T16:04:38Z")
> [@Hokkaido\_Brit](#): > > While all this talk and panic over the reactors and evacuating foreigners is going on, the 20,000 dead or missing and the 450,000 displaced people and the 300km of destroyed coastline is going pretty much forgotten. Not by me. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/616 "2011-03-18T16:08:18Z")
> [@Hokkaido\_Brit](#): > > While all this talk and panic over the reactors and evacuating foreigners is going on, the 20,000 dead or missing and the 450,000 displaced people and the 300km of destroyed coastline is going pretty much forgotten. And the confirmed death toll has now surpassed the Hanshin (Kobe) earthquake. Not that there was much doubt about it, but still… ☹ ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/617 "2011-03-18T16:59:22Z")
> [@billfish678](#): > > I’ve taken graduate classes in both, and have a degree in one of them, which puts me ahead of most of your guys opinions. So with an undergraduate degree in physics and a class or two in nuc engineering, you are highly qualified. I see. > [@](#): > > The problem is not that the real experts are wrong. Its more that you guys generally don’t fully understand what the experts are saying. That, or you listen to sorta experts that are into fear mongering rather than a calm rational analysis of the situation. Yus, thaz the problum. With just a electrical engineering dagreee, a Mynor in Fisics and _no_ classez in nuclar injurinering, plus my Work as a design Enginur and 20 years in the electronics pheeld clearly shows that I’m incapable of understanding things which you physics majors can. I went and got mySelf one of fancy dicionaries, like them reeally smart people have to look up 3 sylable words and it Takes awhile to go through it. I was using an yello highlighter but my laptop monitor got too dim to use. Ain’t it amaizing how small they aer? U r really smart, so how does that work? I cannever tell who to Belife and who know, espepeically sinse you say I’m listening to “sorta” and not real experts, like them guys I quoted. The engineer incharge of cleanup at 3 [del]foot[/del] mile Iland. Your’re right. I bet his degree isn’t in Fsycs either. then their’s that guy who writes trash liek > [@](#): > > The spent-fuel pools adjacent to most power reactors contain much larger inventories of 137Cs than the 2 MegaCuries (MCi) that were released from the core of Chernobyl 1000-Megawatt electric (MWe) unit #418 or the approximately 5 MCi in the core of a 1000-MWe light-water reactor. A typical 1000-MWe pressurized water reactor (PWR) core contains about 80 metric tons of uranium in its fuel, while a typical U.S. spent fuel pool today contains about 400 tons of spent fuel he’s obvisly info “feer mongering” like yoou say. Can you use that phansy E-male thingy to set him right? Theres a bunch of them who writ that papaer includeing a profasser at Prinstun Unnaversaty, but it didn’ say if he had an undergrauduate degree in phisics like you do, so I’m sure he would like your help. Now, that payper says things like > [@](#): > > In case of a loss of cooling, the time it would take for a spent-fuel pool to boil down to near the top of the spent fuel would be more than 10 days if the most recent spent-fuel discharge had been a year before. If the entire core of a reactor had been unloaded into the spent fuel pool only a few days after shutdown, the time could be as short as a day. and since Fukushima reactors’s pools are get dry really fucking quick, and without any information from TEPCO, us idiots could never made a connection between these things, because we are too busy screaming than reading white papers from front to back. No, it never occurs to us non-physics majors to consider sources, to read research papers, to note when thing are written about one type of reactor, that it doesn’t mean it necessary to the type at Fukushima, and that the practice of dense-pack storage routinely practiced in the States may not be done in Japan. Because we our degrees are only in electrical engineering and we “listen to sorta experts that are into fear mongering rather than a calm rational analysis of the situation,” it would never occur to us to call our friends; the scientist with a PhD in EE from that fly-by-night institute Sanford University, or that guy who is a structural engineer for a major Japanese firm, to get their take on the situation. Funny thing is, that structural engineer who designs to for protection from earthquakes, and if very familiar with earthquake protection wouldn’t make a guess one way or other on the Daichi reactors since he isn’t privy to their specifics. I should put you too in contact so that you can tell him how to be so certain of things which you don’t know. Or maybe you do know, and just haven’t shared it with us. How is the structural integrity of all of containment structures, the ones designed to withstand an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.2, and got the signoff by the same people who approved the seawalls? Are there potentially cracks which haven’t failed yet, but could if the pressure continues to increase? How much spent fuel is being held in the pools. Yes, the ones which are not within the containment structures, e.g. in open air now? How densely packed are the pools? How old is the fuel? How much cesium-137 and other highly volatile elements are there? If one of the pools “goes bad” and starts to really spew a lot of really ugly junk into the air, how long can we ask the really brave workers to keep adding water to the other pools? If that happens, would it be a “good thing?” What is the specific risk of any of the pools, especially no. 4, catching fire? Since three of the reactors (numbers 4 through 6) where shut down for routine maintenance, was the fuel transferred to the spent fuel pools, which are now in open air? If those pools lose water and the self-defense forces are unable to refill the pools, would it be a “good thing” or a “bad thing?” Would this case be something which is described like this > [@](#): > > Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission products, including 30-year half-life 137Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl. Would this be a “good thing?” I could go on all day, but see, because we didn’t get out degrees in physics, we are just too fucking stupid to even think of the right questions to ask. > [@](#): > > There is large and there is large and there is Chernobyl large. > > If the Japanese reactor doesnt blow sky high like Chernobyl and doesnt turn into a giant pile of burning radioactive material it CANNOT be a bad as Chernobyl. How hard is that to comprehend? Absolutely. This is why people like Robert Alvarez, Senior Scholar, Institute for Policy Studies; Jan Beyea, Consulting in the Public Interest; Ed Lyman, Nuclear Control Institute, Allison Macfarlane, Security Studies Program, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Gordon Thompson, Institute for Resource and Security Studies; Frank N. von Hippel, Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University are wrong because they obviously are failing to comprehend how spend fuel fires “CANNOT be as bad as Chernobyl", even if they did footnote their paper. Yes, and Mr. Advarez doesn’t like nuclear power, so it should be really easy to refute the science in his white papers. But my guess is that these people aren’t as qualified as you to make that judgment. > [@](#): > > And if someboy who actually knows WTF they are talking about comes along and says its still possible for the thing to blow the hell apart AND catch fire, I’ll eat my words (or if it actually happens 🙂 ) A couple of final comments. Unlike you, I’m not claiming to be an expert. I’ve never stated what will or will not happen. I certainly hope the hell that the worst case scenario and I actually give a shit about what happens to my adopted country. Maybe you still can get a refund for that tuition. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/618 "2011-03-18T17:17:00Z")
> [@TokyoPlayer](#): > > But my guess is that these people aren’t as qualified as you to make that judgment. > > A couple of final comments. Unlike you, I’m not claiming to be an expert. I’ve never stated what will or will not happen. I certainly hope the hell that the worst case scenario and I actually give a shit about what happens to my adopted country. > > Maybe you still can get a refund for that tuition. Lighten up Frances. You think I don’t care? You don’t think I don’t give a shit? And you seem to confuse worst possible case vs likely case (which btw changes day by day, so don’t try to pull some look how bad it is now vs what I said days ago about it baloney). There are plenty of points along this disaster where things could have (and honestly probaby should have) taken a turn for the better rather than a turn for the worst. For example, the spent fuel rod pools. Early on they were fine. But, for whatever reason they didn’t or couldnt couldnt get get on top of that situation and now they are a big deal (and quite possibly the bigger deal). If I had loved ones there, I’d be giving them the same semi-educated advice I’ve given here. Heck, if I was there personally I’d feel the same way. I’m here to counter the hysteria. If you want to freak out, thats your perogative. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/619 "2011-03-18T17:25:29Z")
Missed edit window. You’ll note I havent said anything in the past (I’m pretty sure) about the spent fuel rod pools. And if things really get bad, you can blame your adopted country for not running a nuclear reactor properly, rather than me hoping that things arent worst case and knowing that they don’t HAVE to be. But, its probably easier to get mad at me, so have at it. ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/620 "2011-03-18T17:40:51Z")
Everyone calm down, take a deep breath, and back away from the personal attacks. Thanks, **twickster** , MPSIMS moderator ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279/621 "2011-03-18T18:37:49Z")
Tokyo Player - I missed any previous updates. Are you and your family now in Taiwan? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279.md?page=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/large-earthquake-in-northeast-japan/574279.md?page=32)