# Last Senate Predictions Before The Polls Close Tonight

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-senate-predictions-before-the-polls-close-tonight/703627>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 4, 2014, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-senate-predictions-before-the-polls-close-tonight/703627 "2014-11-04T15:18:01Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-senate-predictions-before-the-polls-close-tonight/703627/41 "2014-11-05T13:56:37Z")

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> [@Frank](#):
>
> Well, my “51 or 52” also appears to be wrong. I hoped for the best; I got the worst. _shrug_ It happens.
> 
> On to 2016!

I thought you were _predicting_, as opposed to simply _hoping._

Or was that “hope” cloaked in the guise of “prediction?”

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**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-senate-predictions-before-the-polls-close-tonight/703627/42 "2014-11-05T15:06:18Z")

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Well, I was wrong about Colorado, NC and Kansas. I have to say, I’m still surprised by NC. I thought Hagan would pull it off.

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**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-senate-predictions-before-the-polls-close-tonight/703627/43 "2014-11-05T17:24:30Z")

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Once again, Alaska doesn’t disappoint. Begich has never won a race that wasn’t a squeaker, and he’s right not to concede, what with 22,000 rural votes still in play. I’m far from convinced he can pull off another win, but most all of those votes are Native votes.

Nasty, corrupt, do-nothing Don Young was reelected, albeit in a close race.

Looks like marijuana will be legal, as it will be in Oregon.

The weird marriage opposing Republican Governor Parnell is ahead by a hair, but the same rural vote will determine the outcome.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-senate-predictions-before-the-polls-close-tonight/703627/44 "2014-11-05T17:47:29Z")

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> [@Captain\_Amazing](#):
>
> Well, I was wrong about Colorado, NC and Kansas. I have to say, I’m still surprised by NC. I thought Hagan would pull it off.

I think the incumbent rule reasserted itself. If you’re polling under 45%, you’re probably screwed. Hagan was at 44. Looks like undecideds mostly broke for Tillis. In addition, third party candidates generally underperform their polling. The Libertarian candidate went down a point from his polling average, and that point probably also went to Tillis.

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