# Last Space Shuttle Flight **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 9, 2011, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397 "2011-07-09T10:22:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/41 "2011-07-10T16:35:26Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#): > > We have far more control over government mismanagement (through the ballot box) than we do over the self-serving actions of rich and powerful. And unintended consequences apply to the private sector as well. What makes the most money for a company may not necessarily be what’s best for society. > > As I’ve been saying, you’ve internalized the belief that government inherently sucks so thoroughly that you treat it as an unquestioned axiomatic truth. You might pause to consider who profits by you having this belief, and why they might be interested in encouraging you to have it … . I think the reason why government is often bad at what it does is because it is influenced by the actions of everyone. my view in a nutshell- private sector- usually evil but efficient. government- usually benevlolent but incompetent. As far as having a real influence through the ballot box, frankly, I’ve never had an election where I wasn’t profoundly disappointed with a year or two even when my guys won. With a private entity, I’m usually satisfied with the result, or I don’t go there a second time. Case in point, we are probably going to go to a private enterprise space program. NASA will contract with private contractors to get payloads up, as will research institutes and even private individuals. Some rich fool wants to create thousands of jobs to to fly in space, I’m totally down with that. (Yes, I mean you, Richard Branson.) ---
**Author:** ![K364](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k364/32/5_2.png) [@K364](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/K364)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/42 "2011-07-10T16:38:21Z")
> [@K364](#): > > Let’s ignore the 2 disasters - they were totally avoidable and the consequence of poor Management risk analysis. > [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > 40% of them being destroyed and killing 14 people is an amazing record? Really? You don’t read do you? ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/43 "2011-07-10T16:58:25Z")
> [@K364](#): > > You don’t read do you? NO, I just don’t think you can sweep two disasters under the rug by calling it poor management. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/44 "2011-07-10T17:02:52Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > Incidentally, NASA’s _manned_ space program is clearly at a very low ebb right now, but NASA has an active space probe [orbiting Mercury](http://messenger.jhuapl.edu/), has two different active space probes [orbiting](http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/index.cfm) [Mars](http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/MRO/main/index.html) and [one rover still active on the Martian surface](http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/mer/daily.cfm), has active space probes [exploring the asteroid belt](http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/dawn/main/index.html), [orbiting Saturn](http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/main/) (in cooperation with the Europeans), and [en route to Pluto (and possibly beyond)](http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/); has a flotilla of space telescopes, most famously in the [optical range](http://hubble.nasa.gov/) but also in [the infrared](http://www.spitzer.caltech.edu/) and [X-rays](http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/chandra/main/index.html), with another one [looking for extrasolar planets (including potentially Earth-like exoplanets)](http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/main/index.html). The [Voyager probes](http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/), on their way out into interstellar space, are still operational after over 33 years in space. Historically, while NASA has had some failures (including some [pretty embarassing ones](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Climate_Orbiter#Communications_loss)), it has a better track record than anyone else on the planet at [Mars exploration](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Timeline_of_Mars_exploration), and has basically not had any competition at all in the exploration of the outer Solar System (Jupiter and beyond), though it has at times received cooperation from the space agencies of other nations (e.g., the Cassini mission referred to above). To hell with all of that. I want tits and ass and explosions. I don’t care about an unmanned satellite orbiting Mercury. I want to see a man set foot on Mars. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/45 "2011-07-10T17:04:52Z")
Also- two disasterous flights out of 133 is about a 1% fail rate. Airlines have 37,000 flights a day. How often do you hear about a crash where everyone was killed? Maybe once or twice a year, usually in another country. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/46 "2011-07-10T17:31:09Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > To hell with all of that. I want tits and ass and explosions. I don’t care about an unmanned satellite orbiting Mercury. > > I want to see a man set foot on Mars. [Come with me, baby, on a Rocket Ride!](http://www.tomsmithonline.com/lyrics/rocket_ride.htm)🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/47 "2011-07-10T17:53:39Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Also- two disasterous flights out of 133 is about a 1% fail rate. > > Airlines have 37,000 flights a day. How often do you hear about a crash where everyone was killed? Maybe once or twice a year, usually in another country. How often to airliners go into space? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/48 "2011-07-10T17:55:04Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > How often to airliners go into space? That’s not the point. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/49 "2011-07-10T17:57:09Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > That’s not the point. Whats not the point? ---
**Author:** ![George\_Kaplin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3e96dc/32.png) [@George\_Kaplin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/George_Kaplin)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/50 "2011-07-10T18:11:34Z")
That aeroplanes don’t go into outer space. That’s a trifling irrelevancy that cannot possibly have anything whatsoever to do with the matter at hand, which is that government sucks, always and forever, at everything. Like that time when teachers, nurses, school bus drivers, cops, city councillors, and administrators all got together and crashed the stock market, wiped out banks, and damn near destroyed the universe while hauling in billions in bonuses and paying no tax. Anyway, government sucks and planes are space shuttles. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/51 "2011-07-10T18:14:13Z")
Airliners not going into space does not have anything to do with the rates of failure. A certain percentage of aircraft crash, and a certain percentage of people are killed. There are percentages of spacecraft failures, and car crashes, and medical device failures. The decision to make is what percentage of losses are acceptable for any endeavor. A 1% rate for fatal car crashes or fatal airline crashes is considered too great. Given the nature of space flight, and of flight test in general, 1% is tragic but reasonable. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/52 "2011-07-10T18:23:06Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > A 1% rate for fatal car crashes or fatal airline crashes is considered too great. Given the nature of space flight, and of flight test in general, 1% is tragic but reasonable. Ummm…yea. That was my point. Its silly to compare statistics of spacecraft to airplanes. Rocket travel is going to be inherently more dangerous the airline travel, regardless of whether the rocket is being launched by private or public actors. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/53 "2011-07-10T18:35:55Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Given the nature of space flight, and of flight test in general, 1% is tragic but reasonable. I wonder what NASA thinks about your 1% rule. The program came to a screaching halt when Challenger blew up, leaving a 2% failure rate. I understand the PR aspect, but I wonder what NASA insiders think an acceptable failure rate of manned space fight is between themselves. Either way, while I understand the previous point, stating that ‘X’ is remarkable success if I set aside all of it’s failures isn’t much of a claim. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/54 "2011-07-10T19:52:16Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > I wonder what NASA thinks about your 1% rule. Acceptance of a 1% failure rate is actually codified in NASA/TM-2003-210785 _Guidelines and Capabilities for Designing Human Missions_, Chapter 3: Human-Rated Vehicle Requirements: \*3.2 Safety and Reliability Requirement 6: The program shall be designed so that the cumulative probability of safe crew return over the life of the program exceeds 0.99. This will be accomplished through the use of all available mechanisms including mission success, abort, safe haven, and crew escape. Requirement 7: A crew escape system shall be provided on future (e.g. post-Space Shuttle) Earth-to-orbit (ETO) vehicles for safe crew extraction and recovery from in-flight failures across the flight envelope from prelaunch to landing. The escape system shall have a probability of successful crew return of 0.99.\* Stranger ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/55 "2011-07-10T20:06:08Z")
Thanks Stranger. Faciniating discussion as always when it’s about space flight. We have discussions about “acceptable” losses when doing campaign analysis for the military in my day job. We were writing about war ship losses not too long ago when a three-star said “you can have all the analysis you want, but remember the American people have their own definition of what’s acceptable.” ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/56 "2011-07-10T20:22:41Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > We have discussions about “acceptable” losses when doing campaign analysis for the military in my day job. We were writing about war ship losses not too long ago when a three-star said “you can have all the analysis you want, but remember the American people have their own definition of what’s acceptable.” The particular issue with both the _Challenger_ and _Columbia_ (and, to a certain extent, the Apollo 1 cabin fire that killed White, Chafee, and Grissom) was at the hazard that caused the failure was known and had been briefed to program management as a serious issue, and management turned around and dismissed it based not upon a credible risk hazard study or after consideration of potential motivations, but rather on a “this hasn’t proven to be a problem yet so we’ll assume that it won’t become one.” All of these tragedies could have been avoided with awareness, inspection criteria, or appropriate launch constraints, with a minimal increase in cost or effort, but the fear by management is that it would expose more skeletons that would lead to greater delays and the potential for cancellation by a mercurial Congress. The fact is that space propulsion technology is not sufficiently mature for “routine” human spaceflight in the way that air travel is, and the cost of learning and improving is so onerous that we prefer to be obtuse to a real estimation of risk. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/57 "2011-07-10T21:03:24Z")
If you’re going to compare the safety record of airplanes to space shuttles, the real question would be, out of the first 133 flights of airplanes, how many ended in disaster? The reason the Shuttle is so dangerous is that 133 flights really isn’t enough testing for proper R&D on a device that complicated. After the Challenger disaster, the designs and procedures were improved so that that sort of failure wouldn’t happen again. Likewise, after the Columbia. Repeat often enough, and disasters become as rare as they’ve become with airplanes. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/58 "2011-07-10T23:02:01Z")
It would be more applicable to compare military aircraft to the shuttle. Say the F-104 Starfighter > [@Wiki](#): > > The safety record of the F-104 Starfighter became high-profile news, especially in Germany, in the mid-1960s. Some operators lost a large proportion of their aircraft through accidents, although the accident rate varied widely depending on the user and operating conditions; the Luftwaffe lost about 30% of aircraft in accidents over its operating career,[30] and Canada lost over 50% of its F-104s.[31] The Spanish Air Force, however, lost none.[32][33] ---
**Author:** ![humanafterall](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/humanafterall/32/19654_2.png) [@humanafterall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/humanafterall)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/59 "2011-07-12T03:24:59Z")
And the government basically crushed the dreams of millions of American children. That means that kids can’t say “When I grow up, I want to be an astronaut!”, anymore, because there are no astronauts, and if shit doesn’t get straightened out pretty soon, there won’t be any more astronauts, ever, for infinity. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397/60 "2011-07-12T03:36:00Z")
Yeah! There were no astronauts in 1950, so there couldn’t have been any in 1970! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/last-space-shuttle-flight/588397.md?page=4)