# Latest conservative grievance - polls "oversample" Democrats **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 24, 2012, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647 "2012-09-24T01:31:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/181 "2012-09-27T19:14:27Z")
Evidence for that in Rasmussen’s case is lacking. Pollsters want to _get paid_. Building a mutually-beneficial relationship with a patron of pollsters is one way. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/182 "2012-09-27T19:22:24Z")
Far from being an expert on polling, I still would want to see some actual proof that as Sean Hannity says, there has been intentional manipulation of polling data by the pollsters themselves, thereby giving the mainstream media ammunition in their never-ending goal to get Obama re-elected. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/183 "2012-09-27T19:29:28Z")
Huh. The current 538 site, at least on my browser, shows Obama with a 373.0% chance of winning. However, Romney has a 227.0% chance of winning, too. [This is what I see.](http://www.pawinskiphotography.com/public/538.png) It’s a liberal conspiracy! ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/184 "2012-09-27T22:28:42Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Sean Hannity was railing about it yesterday in his daily comedy monologue. > > In any case, does anyone else think that the idea of a well-known polling firm intentionally, deliberately, and blatantly modifying its results in order to have a major impact on an election is patently ridiculous? Now, I’m not naive, and I know politics is war and all, but these companies are _businesses_. Being caught doing such things, or being just plain wrong when the election actually plays out, would be devastating to their reputations. It just doesn’t make sense. Fox and Friends went full-on with it this morning. They failed to mention that their own polling shows Obama with a big lead. You’d think that they wouldn’t hire a polling firm that secretly wants the Dems to win. [http://mediacast.realgravity.com/sharing/abd3f6b0-4082-012f-2a8c-12313d00d151/6384a963-2160-4713-8f53-692079715cd0.html](http://mediacast.realgravity.com/sharing/abd3f6b0-4082-012f-2a8c-12313d00d151/6384a963-2160-4713-8f53-692079715cd0.html) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/185 "2012-09-27T23:24:33Z")
[Party ID is fluid.](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification) And - can you imagine this? - for some reason, willingness of voters to identify as Republicans has been dropping like a rock this year, from 30% back in April, to 25.8% now, according to the running average of polls that ask for party ID. So Rasmussen’s controlling to a moving target - in this case, all but controlling to his desired outcome. _Of course_ his numbers are going to be more Republican than everyone else’s. I hope he continues to control to party ID all the way through Election Day so everyone can see just how wrong Rasmussen calls it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/186 "2012-09-27T23:26:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The polls are showing more Democratic turnout than in 2008. That’s a really big deal given that 2008 was a huge year based on a once in a generation candidacy. > > Here’s the CBS/NY Times internals that the media made a big deal out of today. Obama leads big in major swing states, but the real story is that Democrats are set to turn out in their largest numbers ever: > > [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250\_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/?pageNum=3&tag=contentMain;contentBody](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/?pageNum=3&tag=contentMain;contentBody) Linking to a 20-page document isn’t much help. Can you be more specific? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/187 "2012-09-27T23:33:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s still higher turnout. This is getting into Humpty-Dumpty territory. \*‘Turnout’ refers to the percentage of the population (or some subgroup) that shows up to vote. \*It does NOT refer to the size of the population or subgroup, or whether that size is increasing or decreasing, just the proportion of the group that votes, regardless of its size on Election Day. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/188 "2012-09-27T23:34:16Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Fox and Friends went full-on with it this morning. They failed to mention that their own polling shows Obama with a big lead. You’d think that they wouldn’t hire a polling firm that secretly wants the Dems to win. > > [http://mediacast.realgravity.com/sharing/abd3f6b0-4082-012f-2a8c-12313d00d151/6384a963-2160-4713-8f53-692079715cd0.html](http://mediacast.realgravity.com/sharing/abd3f6b0-4082-012f-2a8c-12313d00d151/6384a963-2160-4713-8f53-692079715cd0.html) Don’t you love it when wingnuts expose their own conspiracies? ---
**Author:** ![El\_Zagna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d2c977/32.png) [@El\_Zagna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Zagna)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/189 "2012-09-27T23:46:57Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Pollsters want to _get paid_. Building a mutually-beneficial relationship with a patron of pollsters is one way. That only would work in the short term. Pollsters live and die by their accuracy. When polling companies miss the mark their reputations tank. That’s not a good business plan. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/190 "2012-09-28T01:29:37Z")
Romney leads among independents in Florida and Ohio: > **[Media Ignore Independents' Swing Toward Romney](https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2012/09/27/romney-winning-swing-state-independents-media-ignores/)** > > Curiously, Independents seem to be mostly ignored this election cycle, and their presidential vote preference is almost unanimously ignored by the MSM. Instead, Sorry, but it’s really hard to see Romney winning the independent vote but losing the election. The polls will converge as the election gets closer, and I think they are more likely to converge to what Rasmussen thinks. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/191 "2012-09-28T01:37:03Z")
In Ohio, absentee ballot requests among Republicans are slightly up. Among Democrats, they’ve decreased by nearly half over 2008. [http://www.redstate.com/2012/09/27/tracking-ohios-absentee-ballot-requests/](http://www.redstate.com/2012/09/27/tracking-ohios-absentee-ballot-requests/) This does not look like increased Democratic enthusiasm or a decrease in those identifying as Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/192 "2012-09-28T01:49:34Z")
So that’s it, then? Is this an official assertion that Mitt Romney is in the lead, or only enough behind that it’s not significant, and that the polls and Nate Silver and everyone else is wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/193 "2012-09-28T01:49:50Z")
Fox polling is also in Obama’s pocket apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/194 "2012-09-28T02:28:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In Ohio, absentee ballot requests among Republicans are slightly up. Among Democrats, they’ve decreased by nearly half over 2008. Dude, the primaries (where ballot requests can be separated out by party) were months ago. We’re now in the general election (where there’s just the one type of ballot for everybody). > [@Leaper](#): > > So that’s it, then? Is this an official assertion that Mitt Romney is in the lead, or only enough behind that it’s not significant, and that the polls and Nate Silver and everyone else is wrong? Indeed. Is there some specific claim being made, or is this an exercise in [JAQing off](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/JAQing_off)? > [@adaher](#): > > I think they are more likely to converge to what Rasmussen thinks. OK; so there’s a specific assertion. My assertion is that, based on past performance, Rasmussen numbers deserve the same consideration as the output of a Magic 8-Ball. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/195 "2012-09-28T03:28:36Z")
**Adaher**? Breitbart? Red State? Cite? Which of these things doesn’t belong? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/196 "2012-09-28T05:06:57Z")
**Adaher** , very seriously, what happened here? You went in a very short transition from someone apparently seriously trying to parse this out, to someone desperately hanging on to whatever bit of Rightward spin attempt you can scrape up. I am not sure if it is more sad or funny. Now it is down to Rasmussen alone who, by virtue of operating with the revealed truth of what the voter ID spread IS _a priori_ and adjusting the collected data to fit that prior assumption, who tell the real story. Not to worry. Everyone else will come around. ---
**Author:** ![Smellyalater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Smellyalater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smellyalater)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/197 "2012-09-28T05:45:42Z")
I’m not a polling expert but even Fox News has Obama up 5 points in their latest poll. Being privy to the knowledge that the other polls over sample democrats since they have on-air personalities saying as much…why would they do the same?? I don’t believe Gallup has any special interest or desire in re-electing Obama by discouraging Republican turnout. It just seems off to me that this many polling organizations with experts who do this for a living could be so wrong and that Romney is actually winning as conservatives have suggested. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/198 "2012-09-28T06:07:12Z")
> [@Smellyalater](#): > > I’m not a polling expert but even Fox News has Obama up 5 points in their latest poll. Being privy to the knowledge that the other polls over sample democrats since they have on-air personalities saying as much…why would they do the same?? > > I don’t believe Gallup has any special interest or desire in re-electing Obama by discouraging Republican turnout. > > It just seems off to me that this many polling organizations with experts who do this for a living could be so wrong and that Romney is actually winning as conservatives have suggested. It also strikes me as a very risky strategy - there would have to be a very fine line between A) Wow - Obama’s winning, there’s no point voting and B) Holy Shit - Romney’s losing, I’d better make sure I go and vote ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/199 "2012-09-28T12:54:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If this is just a temporary bounce for Obama based on higher September enthusiasm for Democrats, then we should expect the race to go back to a near tie. That depends on how you define “near tie”, of course. Popular vote? Perhaps. But as an example, Nate Silver gave Obama 300.2 electoral college votes vs. Romney’s 237.8, back on _Aug 7_, and the spread has been similar since. Based on his polling and other from the time, I don’t know what near tie Romney has to “go back to”, as the popular vote is irrelevant. ETA: comment about the spread. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/200 "2012-09-28T15:37:08Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > > [@adaher](#): > > > > In Ohio, absentee ballot requests among Republicans are slightly up. Among Democrats, they’ve decreased by nearly half over 2008. > > Dude, the primaries (where ballot requests can be separated out by party) were months ago. We’re now in the general election (where there’s just the one type of ballot for everybody). That doesn’t seem to be what the column is claiming. They’re claiming that requests for ballots for the general election are following this trend. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=11)