# Latest conservative grievance - polls "oversample" Democrats **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 24, 2012, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647 "2012-09-24T01:31:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/301 "2012-10-16T21:58:54Z")
> [@Randvek](#): > > Why do you think Republican turnout will be better and Independent turnout worse in 2012 as compared to 2008 when the meta has been “Republicans are going Independent?” Who said that? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/302 "2012-10-16T23:31:26Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I’m looking at three things; registration data within any given state, historical voter turnout and the enthusiasm gap. You look at… a poll. Now which should I believe? What are you using to measure the enthusiasm gap, exactly? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/303 "2012-11-11T05:05:15Z")
Sorry to bump such an old thread but [the latest 538 post](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/)is interesting in this regard. It turns out that there was a significant oversampling going on that resulted in a significant bias across the whole universe of pollsters … even those labeled as Democratic leaning typically actually had a GOP lean. Gallup and Rasmussen did especially poorly. FWIW. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/304 "2012-11-11T05:41:08Z")
The polls WERE biased… in favor of the Republicans. Hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/305 "2012-11-11T13:46:55Z")
I was hoping Silver would do an analysis of the overall performance of each poll and call Gallup on their lousy results. They’ve been wrong the last three elections, and seriously wrong regarding Romney’s chances. It makes you wonder what else they’re were wrong about. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/306 "2012-11-11T14:08:41Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > The polls WERE biased… in favor of the Republicans. Hilarious. I’ve been waiting to hear claims that the actual vote oversampled Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/307 "2012-11-11T16:03:05Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > The polls WERE biased… in favor of the Republicans. Hilarious. And how long until the usual suspects come running to explain this away? Huh? **OMG**? **adaher**? :::tap tap tap::: Is this thing on? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/308 "2012-11-11T16:06:51Z")
I was reading one of these, as referenced herein, where the commenter was swearing that he had video of busloads of illegal Ethiopian voters being trundled to the polls to vote Dem. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/309 "2012-11-11T16:17:30Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I was reading one of these, as referenced herein, where the commenter was swearing that he had video of busloads of illegal Ethiopian voters being trundled to the polls to vote Dem. Well that’s stupid. Didn’t they know Obama was Kenyan? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/310 "2012-11-12T14:27:26Z")
Here’s an interesting post-mortem on the polling issue: [The GOP Polling Debacle](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83672.html). > [@](#): > > For Republicans, one of the worst parts of the GOP’s 2012 trouncing was that they didn’t see it coming. > > Top party strategists and officials always knew there was a chance that President Barack Obama would get reelected, or that Republicans wouldn’t gain control of the Senate. But down to the final days of the national campaign, few anticipated the severe setbacks that Republicans experienced on Nov. 6. > … > The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania. Interestingly, the article homes in on much the same issues that got debated here on the SDMB - what assumptions go into the “likely voter” screen, and the turn-out? > [@](#): > > It’s not as if the party is totally at a loss to explain where it went off course. Sources familiar with Romney’s polling say that it underestimated the Democrats’ 6-point voter identification edge, nationally, and put far too much stock in what one Republican operative called “false signs of Republican enthusiasm.” Multiple Republican pollsters also acknowledged that they misjudged how many young people and minorities would show up to vote. > [@](#): > > Democrats had argued for months before the election that Republican polling was screening out voters who would ultimately turn up to support Obama. In fact, Obama advisers said, if you applied a tighter likely voter screen to Democratic polling — counting only the very likeliest voters as part of the electorate — you could come up with results similar to what the GOP was looking at. > By assuming that only the most enthusiastic voters would actually show up, Republicans greatly overestimated their national position. Operatives and activists rejected public polling data that showed substantially more voters identifying themselves as Democrats in states like Ohio and Virginia, giving Republicans an unwarranted sense of confidence that crumbled last Tuesday. And, take comfort, **OMG** and **adaher** : others were making the same assumptions that you were: > [@](#): > > One top GOP pollster expressed dismay at the ultimate composition of the electorate: “I had no expectation that Democratic advantage on party ID would be the same as it was in 2008. I thought there would be more Democrats than Republicans, but I didn’t think it would be equal to 2008. > > **“There were just too many damn Democrats,” the pollster said.** ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/311 "2012-11-12T17:58:10Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > And, take comfort, **OMG** and **adaher** : others were making the same assumptions that you were: Well, yes. That’s where people like adaher got the idea: from the echo chamber. Every time an idea or conspiracy pops up in the echo chamber, a few conservatives trot along to the dope to tell us all about it. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/312 "2012-11-12T18:17:30Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > And, take comfort, **OMG** and **adaher** : others were making the same assumptions that you were: > > > [@](#): > > > > One top GOP pollster expressed dismay at the ultimate composition of the electorate: “I had no expectation that Democratic advantage on party ID would be the same as it was in 2008. I thought there would be more Democrats than Republicans, but I didn’t think it would be equal to 2008. > > > > **“There were just too many damn Democrats,” the pollster said.** John Madden is doing polling now? "You see you’ve got this election, and if you want to win the election you have to get more people voting for you, and the problem for the Republicans is that they’re not doing that. If the Republicans want to win in the second half, the key is going to be getting more people to vote for them. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/313 "2012-11-12T18:44:32Z")
Needs more circles and arrows ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/314 "2012-11-12T20:37:50Z")
To be fair, I am frankly surprised that the electorate looked so much like 2008 as well. As a guy who desperately wanted Obama to win, even I had my doubts and was predicting a slim Romney win based on the assumption that there’d be a smaller gap between D’s and R’s. Thankfully I was wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/315 "2012-11-12T22:55:35Z")
Quoted above: --"Sources familiar with Romney’s polling say that it underestimated the Democrats’ 6-point voter identification edge, nationally, and put far too much stock in what one Republican operative called “ **false signs of Republican enthusiasm**.” Multiple Republican pollsters also acknowledged that they misjudged how many **young people** and minorities would show up to vote. " My experience campaigning (for Obama) was that there was a great deal of enthusiasm for the president. I was involved in GOTV efforts, so of course the folks I was talking to were expected to vote Dem, but I was pleasantly surprised at how eager they were overall–“oh yeah, I’ll be there,” “Don;t worry, we’re solid for Obama,” “He’s just GOT to win this thing,” “I’m having knee surgery, so how do I get an absentee ballot?” I’ve been involved in campaigns where it’s difficult to get voters who are supposedly on your side motivated to get to the polls. This was NOT one of them. Also, though I did not meet many minority voters (I was in a pretty heavily white blue-collar county), I talked to quite a few young voters (under 25) who seemed no less enthusiastic than the older ones. ---
**Author:** ![Linden\_Arden](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/53a042/32.png) [@Linden\_Arden](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Linden_Arden)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/316 "2012-11-17T22:02:37Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And how long until the usual suspects come running to explain this away? Huh? **OMG**? **adaher**? > > :::tap tap tap::: > > Is this thing on? Has **adaher** been seen since the election? ---
**Author:** ![Silophant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a698b9/32.png) [@Silophant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silophant)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/317 "2012-11-17T22:17:09Z")
Nope. [Here’s](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15666908&postcount=15) his last post, midmorning on election day. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/318 "2012-11-17T22:47:18Z")
That’s surprising, he seemed like the most rational of the delusional righties we have. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/319 "2012-11-17T23:00:33Z")
Well, I hope _South Park_ does something with the RW and LW reactions to this election, like [they did in 2008.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/About_Last_Night..._(South_Park)) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2012, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/320 "2012-11-18T10:16:26Z")
> [@Silophant](#): > > Nope. [Here’s](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15666908&postcount=15) his last post, midmorning on election day. He did log in without posting the day after the election, so he knows what awaits him. Just couldn’t face us, I guess. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=17)