# Latest conservative grievance - polls "oversample" Democrats **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 24, 2012, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647 "2012-09-24T01:31:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2012, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/41 "2012-09-24T21:50:34Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > And yet [Pauline Kael](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Kael#Alleged_Nixon_quote) gets smugly trotted out any time Democrats get frustrated when Republicans take the lead in the polls. It’s a common phenomenon. Here in Canada, where you have three major choices in a federal election, a lot of people are the same way. In the last election I had people tell me they were CERTAIN the Liberals would win because, why, everyone they knew was voting Liberal. The Liberals suffered their worst election defeat in the history of the country, as was in fact predicted by the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2012, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/42 "2012-09-24T21:54:45Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > The quarterly report is supposed to be dismal, and some are predicting it’s the end of the recovery. But there are always doomsayers. I would think that the market would be factoring that in if that information was available, but the Dow is up 500 points this month. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are up 3% in September. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2012, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/43 "2012-09-24T23:30:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **OMG** , > > What part of the analysis do you disagree with? All of it, of course. > [@](#): > > The question is why is there such a huge divide between the universe of pollsters assessment that there have been fewer RVs willing to identify as Republican and these two. Because the latter posters are assuming a 2008 type turnout while Gallup and Rasmussen (and ABC) are not. > [@](#): > > The analysis is that there are methodological differences, as basic as Rasmussen’s robocall landline only approach, and several different factors for Gallup, that result in a different demographic balance. This doesn’t have any effect on basing your model on a better Democrat turnout than 2008. > [@](#): > > Let me phrase the question slightly differently so you can find it palatable: _what is everyone else doing wrong_ that they are systematically all finding fewer RVs willing to self-identify as GOP? Or do you believe there is a systemic effort to sample more (or to “correct” the samples to create the appearance of more) who identify as Democratic? No idea, but it doesn’t square with actual voter splits in each state that we have available nor does it make sense to assume higher Democrat (or lower GOP) turnout than in the 2008 elections where-- in the above shown swing states-- the GOP has actually fared better in new registrations and retentions than have Democrats over the same time span. > [@](#): > > Btw the polling question about party identification has nothing to do with which party someone is registered with. Being registered with a party is a pretty sticky item (changing it requires effort and it is often only done at time of registration or in anticipation of primaries in states that require registration before voting in a party’s primary process); voter identification as polled is a fluid entity that can vary month by month. The drop in that polling identification as GOP is one that was only seen over the half a year (see [this graph](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification)) and is not something that party registration would reflect. So your argument in summary is that your polls are right, the other polls are wrong and that voter registration data I gave you is wrong. That’s quite a strong statement to make. But let’s take a look at your graph. Judging from the graph, GOP identification peaked around mid-February/early-March at 30.0%. On March 11, 2012 the split was 34.6D/30.0R/32.8I; today it is 34.2D/25.6R/34.2I. GOP identification fell by 4.4% while Democratic identification fell by 0.4%. On the other hand, Independent identification rose by 1.4%. Where did 3.4% of the registered voters go? Did they choose to register with a lesser known party? Did they simply fall off the planet? What exactly? (And funny this is that today a brand new poll was added to your graph, with a more likely split of 34D/31R/33I.) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2012, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/44 "2012-09-24T23:49:27Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > So your argument in summary is that your polls are right, the other polls are wrong and that voter registration data I gave you is wrong. That’s quite a strong statement to make. > > But let’s take a look at your graph. Judging from the graph, GOP identification peaked around mid-February/early-March at 30.0%. On March 11, 2012 the split was 34.6D/30.0R/32.8I; today it is 34.2D/25.6R/34.2I. GOP identification fell by 4.4% while Democratic identification fell by 0.4%. On the other hand, Independent identification rose by 1.4%. Where did 3.4% of the registered voters go? Did they choose to register with a lesser known party? Did they simply fall off the planet? What exactly? > > (And funny this is that today a brand new poll was added to your graph, with a more likely split of 34D/31R/33I.) The polling doesn’t count registration data (I’m pretty sure- please correct me if I’m wrong)- they just ask respondents which party they identify with. So isn’t it possible that some who formerly self-identified as Republican no longer do? And wouldn’t this make sense, considering that the approval rating of the Republican party as a whole has been going down lately? ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2012, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/45 "2012-09-24T23:59:58Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Candidates have ‘coat-tails’. > So, **OMG** and **Adaher** , if the election were held today, what do you think the EV results would tally, after you correct for the (apparent) errors in polling? RealClearPolitics, for example, gives Romney 191. If you click on ‘no toss ups’, it gives Romney…191. What do you think a truer result would be? ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/46 "2012-09-25T00:06:46Z")
I don’t blame people for clinging to a thread of hope. I just wonder whether they realize how desperate it sounds. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/47 "2012-09-25T01:06:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The polling doesn’t count registration data (I’m pretty sure- please correct me if I’m wrong)- they just ask respondents which party they identify with. So isn’t it possible that some who formerly self-identified as Republican no longer do? And wouldn’t this make sense, considering that the approval rating of the Republican party as a whole has been going down lately? No, this wouldn’t make sense, unless you’re going to assume that (some) polls are actually more accurate than state registration data. But you actually have no proof of this except you wish it to be so, and only those polls which support the underlying assertion that there is a mass exodus away from the GOP. The better way to go would be to look at state by state registration data, where available, and see which poll most accurately picks up the changes between D/R/I. > [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > RealClearPolitics, for example, gives Romney 191. If you click on ‘no toss ups’, it gives Romney…191. What do you think a truer result would be? RCP is simply an aggregate. It doesn’t analyze polls. I don’t care to guess what the electoral vote is though, as I’ve said a few times now, I think Romney will win in a close election. > [@Knorf](#): > > I don’t blame people for clinging to a thread of hope. > > I just wonder whether they realize how desperate it sounds. So no response of substance to my posts? ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/48 "2012-09-25T01:21:40Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > No, this wouldn’t make sense, unless you’re going to assume that (some) polls are actually more accurate than state registration data. But you actually have no proof of this except you wish it to be so, and only those polls which support the underlying assertion that there is a mass exodus away from the GOP. The better way to go would be to look at state by state registration data, where available, and see which poll most accurately picks up the changes between D/R/I. > > RCP is simply an aggregate. It doesn’t analyze polls. I don’t care to guess what the electoral vote is though, as I’ve said a few times now, I think Romney will win in a close election. > SNIP So it would clearly be safe to say that you think he will win a majority of the ‘toss up’ states, then. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/49 "2012-09-25T02:51:07Z")
Obama Leads Romney Among NASCAR Fans > [@](#): > > Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent, among the 202 voters who said they were fans of NASCAR, according to the survey, conducted by pollster John Zogby and spotted by the left-leaning PoliticusUSA blog. The president had an almost 9-point lead among the full sample of voters. > **[Romney Losing The NASCAR Vote](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-romney-nascar_n_1910339?utm_hp_ref=politics)** > > Romney Losing The NASCAR Vote Romney loosing seniors: > [@](#): > > New polling by Reuters/Ipsos indicates that during the past two weeks - since just after the Democratic National Convention - support for Romney among Americans age 60 and older has crumbled, from a 20-point lead over Democratic President Barack Obama to less than 4 points. > […] > A Pew poll, conducted Sept. 12-16 and released last week, showed Romney with only a 47 to 46 percent lead among registered voters aged 65-plus. He also trailed Obama by 7 points among people aged 45 to 64 - a huge potential voting bloc that analysts say is increasingly concerned about retirement security. > **[Romney Loses Edge Among Key Bloc](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-seniors_n_1908395?utm_hp_ref=politics)** > > Romney Loses Edge Among Key Bloc Good thing all these polls are as inaccurate as they are… otherwise, Romney might be worried. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/50 "2012-09-25T02:59:18Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > RCP is simply an aggregate. It doesn’t analyze polls. I don’t care to guess what the electoral vote is though, as I’ve said a few times now, I think Romney will win in a close election. I guess you’re counting on Romney taking Florida, Ohio AND Virginia then. That’s about his only winning plan now. Good luck with that. ---
**Author:** ![Esox\_Lucius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/848f3c/32.png) [@Esox\_Lucius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esox_Lucius)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/51 "2012-09-25T03:11:16Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > I don’t blame people for clinging to a thread of hope. > > I just wonder whether they realize how desperate it sounds. It reminds me of the creationist argument. If science doesn’t support their views, then something’s wrong with science. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/52 "2012-09-25T03:47:49Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > All of it, of course. Well that’s helpful. > [@](#): > > Because the latter posters are assuming a 2008 type turnout while Gallup and Rasmussen (and ABC) are not. That would matter only for likely voter poll results. _Again_ the voter ID difference is found on the all RV data; the expectation of what turnout will be is what moves the data back towards a GOP favored position with the open question being how much and with most pollsters having assumed moreso than in 2008. Your analysis does not comport with the facts. Try again. > [@](#): > > So your argument in summary is that your polls are right, the other polls are wrong and that voter registration data I gave you is wrong. That’s quite a strong statement to make. Nope. That they are both right for what they each claim to be measuring. Voter registration does not measure current party identification, to believe it does misunderstands what party ID as polled (a fluid quick to respond creature) and voter registration (not very fluid and a lagging indicator) each are. > [@](#): > > … let’s take a look at your graph. Judging from the graph, GOP identification peaked around mid-February/early-March at 30.0%. On March 11, 2012 the split was 34.6D/30.0R/32.8I; today it is 34.2D/25.6R/34.2I. GOP identification fell by 4.4% while Democratic identification fell by 0.4%. On the other hand, Independent identification rose by 1.4%. Where did 3.4% of the registered voters go? Did they choose to register with a lesser known party? Did they simply fall off the planet? What exactly? > > (And funny this is that today a brand new poll was added to your graph, with a more likely split of 34D/31R/33I.) You do understand how rolling averages of polls work? Again, I am open to believing that everyone else other than Gallup is committing some heinous methodological error; you however have not offered any explanation of what that error could be that fits the facts of how polls work. OTOH analyses have offered one that makes sense for way Gallup might be off. So far that argument is more cogent. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/53 "2012-09-25T03:58:25Z")
I, for one, am NOT looking forward to election night, when OMG rubs our noses in his superior prognosticating abilities. Mostly because it means we’d have a clueless doofus as President, granted, but still. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/54 "2012-09-25T04:18:28Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > I, for one, am NOT looking forward to election night, when OMG rubs our noses in his superior prognosticating abilities. > Mostly because it means we’d have a clueless doofus as President, granted, but still. I can imagine the traffic jams at the Canadian border crossings now. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/55 "2012-09-25T05:14:58Z")
Shit, they won’t want to come here! ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 8:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/56 "2012-09-25T08:16:41Z")
An article here said that something like 10 million Latino votes will be surpressed. Could that have an effect on the election? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/57 "2012-09-25T15:44:35Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > An article here said that something like 10 million Latino votes will be surpressed. Could that have an effect on the election? What article? Here? Where is “here”? How are they to be suppressed? With the level of detail you’ve given us, an opinion on the effect is impossible. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/58 "2012-09-25T16:15:52Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **Linden Arden** and **OMG** , > > The issue is why the divergence between the universe of reputable polling firms and these two. > Rassmussen robocalls only. Right off that misses all cell phone only voters who are identified to skew Democratic. Rasmussen also has a long history of a GOP leaning house effect and a \*\*poor track record of reliability \*\*(see link provided in that thread). > **[Rasmussen Reports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports)** > > Rasmussen Reports /ˈræsˌmʌsən/ is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated p Rasmu... > [@](#): > > According to Politico, “Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome.”[39] In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen’s final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama’s final margin of 53%-46%, and made him **one of the most accurate pollsters out there."** That Rassmussen ignores cell phones almost certainly skews their results since cell phone users tend to be younger and more likely to vote for Obama. They’ll probably correct that in the future. But their results for 2008 were solid so their track record isn’t all bad. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/59 "2012-09-25T16:51:41Z")
You missed the next sentence: > [@](#): > > An initial Nov.5, 2008 Fordham University analysis ranked 23 survey research organizations on the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls, assuming a 6.15% margin of victory by Obama. Rasmussen Reports and Pew Research Center tied as the most accurate.[41] Obama’s actual margin was 7.2%, and **a complete analysis published in 2009 by the same author, Costas Panagopoulos, revealed Rasmussen to be tied for 9th most accurate**. Democracy Corps, Foxnews/Opinion Dynamic, CNN/Opinion Research, and Ipsos/McClatchy all predicted an accurate seven point spread. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaptics](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Sinaptics](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaptics)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2012, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/60 "2012-09-25T16:54:43Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > What article? Here? Where is “here”? How are they to be suppressed? With the level of detail you’ve given us, an opinion on the effect is impossible. I believe he’s referring to this: [http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-voting-laws-10-million-hispanic-u-s-citizens-voting-article-1.1167104](http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-voting-laws-10-million-hispanic-u-s-citizens-voting-article-1.1167104) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=4)