# Latest conservative grievance - polls "oversample" Democrats **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 24, 2012, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647 "2012-09-24T01:31:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/101 "2012-09-26T15:22:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not right. You have to believe that the methodology used to correct the demographics to the identified true demographic standard is faulty, or that the data coming in somehow systematically undersamples a portion of a demographic group that would lean a particular way but then uses that subgroup as representative of the whole demographic group. I don’t understand the first possibility. The “method” in question would be to multiply the sample by the known demographic proportion, no? Not sure what could go wrong there. And the second possibility isn’t an error in the adjustment, it’s an error in the sample. Obviously, there’s always the metaphysical possibility that the sample isn’t capturing a representative sample, but that’s a different problem from the one being discussed in the post you quoted. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/102 "2012-09-26T15:26:13Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Wouldn’t that be a more objective approach than assuming 2008 turnout? Perhaps. I can certainly see arguments either way. I’d be worried about applying the likely voter screen to such a small sub-sample, particularly if it resulted in a poll with what seemed way too low of a minority turnout (say, below 2004 levels). I guess maybe it depends on which you think is more likely: a large decrease in minority turnout or a large change in voter party self-identification. Historically I think party ID has proved to be more variable. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/103 "2012-09-26T15:29:41Z")
When was the last time a Presidential candidate won the popular vote while losing the independent vote? That’s another thing that’s weird about the polling. Jay Cost also pointed out that the media polls are the ones that seem to be oversampling Democrats, while the non-media pollsters are getting different results. Is the media creating their own house effect? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/104 "2012-09-26T15:30:11Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Perhaps. I can certainly see arguments either way. I’d be worried about applying the likely voter screen to such a small sub-sample, particularly if it resulted in a poll with what seemed way too low of a minority turnout (say, below 2004 levels). > > I guess maybe it depends on which you think is more likely: a large decrease in minority turnout or a large change in voter party self-identification. Historically I think party ID has proved to be more variable. Fair enough. I would think both things quite likely–i.e., that the black turnout would be lower than 2008 and that more voters would be self-identifying as Democrats. But it seems to me that if most polls are adjusting demographic numbers after the likely voter screen based on 2008 turnout numbers, then there could be a kernel of truth to the conservative critique, just on completely different grounds than those currently expressed. My understanding was that most polls use census numbers to make demographic adjustments before doing the likely voter screen. But it’s hard to check that since very few polls report enough about their internal process to say. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/105 "2012-09-26T15:40:33Z")
Though evidently FL 2004 was 12% black turnout based on the exit polls, so maybe my assumption is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/106 "2012-09-26T15:46:20Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > I don’t understand the first possibility. The “method” in question would be to multiply the sample by the known demographic proportion, no? Not sure what could go wrong there. > > And the second possibility isn’t an error in the adjustment, it’s an error in the sample. Obviously, there’s always the metaphysical possibility that the sample isn’t capturing a representative sample, but that’s a different problem from the one being discussed in the post you quoted. It is not so simple. Again, [here](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/gallup-poll-race-barack-obama_n_1589937.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster) is an article detailing the methods. You can ask and define race and apply the filters in ways that unintentionally skew the data. The result is that Gallup underweights for Blacks and Hispanics relative to the rest (according to that detailed look). > [@](#): > > Consider the contrast in race as measured by Gallup and the Pew Research Center. Both use the March 2011 CPS to set weighting targets. Both ask race questions that allow respondents to select more than one race. But unlike Gallup, Pew Research models its race question on the CPS format and weights to match the CPS benchmark for all adults rather than adults in telephone households. > > If we compute the available data for race and Hispanic origin for both organizations using apples-to-apples categories, the combined black-or-Hispanic composition of the Pew Research polls is nearly three-and-a-half percentage points greater … That variation alone is enough to explain the typical difference between the two organizations’ measurements of President Obama’s job approval. If we recalculate the Obama job rating for the seven USA Today/Gallup surveys based on a racial composition that matches the Pew Research surveys conducted over the same period, the evident house effect differentiating the two pollsters on Obama job approval is largely erased. Also likely voter screen is not based on making the demographics match 2008. The second error is still a methodology error. For example, what if you have an easier time reaching rural middle aged Blacks with landlines than urban young Blacks with cell phones? Is it necessarily accurate to overweight the first to make up for not reaching the second to fit the Black demographic number? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/107 "2012-09-26T16:06:50Z")
I, for one, am relieved that Romney [officially no longer trusts external polls](http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/25/14102182-romney-camp-trusts-own-data-strategy-not-public-polls-in-ohio?lite), preferring to rely on data generated by his campaign. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/108 "2012-09-26T16:24:24Z")
Ah, I understand both points much better now. Thanks for taking the time to explain. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/109 "2012-09-26T16:24:25Z")
Republicans are solidly invested in the myth that they are the majority party, that most American are aligned with their views. Any evidence to the contrary must be explained away. Like, for instance, losing. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/110 "2012-09-26T16:53:24Z")
I can certainly see why conservatives think there might be oversampling going on. On the other hand, even the most Romney-friendly polls don’t seem to bring him within the margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/111 "2012-09-26T17:08:02Z")
Rush’s head is asploding today about the recent polls that give Obama leads in crucial states. Rush said it’s the fault of mainstream media, who is/are in the bag of Obama, and who just want to make conservatives depressed and not turn out to vote that are posting these wrong poll results. His proof is that if Obama really did have a healthy lead in Ohio, then Obama would not be campaigning there today! So there. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/112 "2012-09-26T17:22:20Z")
Well, with the daily Gallup showing O+6 and at 50% he certainly needs something to hold on… ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/113 "2012-09-26T17:42:16Z")
This from [Mark Blumenthal](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/26/presidential-polls-2012_n_1915456.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster) today: > [@](#): > > Contrary to the assertions of some commentators, the pollsters who conduct the CBS/Times/Quinnipiac and Washington Post surveys do not directly set the partisanship or the demographics of their likely voter samples. They first sample all adults in each state, weighting the demographics of the full adult sample (for characteristics such as gender, age, race and education) to match Census estimates for the full population. This sure doesn’t seem like what Quinnipiac was doing based on the internals. Is he right? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/114 "2012-09-26T17:50:18Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > This sure doesn’t seem like what Quinnipiac was doing based on the internals. Is he right? Hmm… I don’t see how we could confirm or deny since they didn’t release any information about their total sample, only the likely voters part. It’s certainly _possible_, but it does seem kind of suspicious that their weighted results ended up matching the 2008 exit polls. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/115 "2012-09-26T17:54:52Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > Rush’s head is asploding today about the recent polls that give Obama leads in crucial states. I caught a little of his act today too. My favorite part is how the polling companies are all purposely skewing the polls toward Obama, so that when Romney wins the rioting can commence. I’m not sure, what sort of stake pollsters have in riots, but there you go. ---
**Author:** ![Jenaroph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e8c25b/32.png) [@Jenaroph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jenaroph)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/116 "2012-09-26T18:00:29Z")
Why would pollsters deliberately set themselves up to be wildly wrong when the election takes place? What are they supposed to gain from that? ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/117 "2012-09-26T18:03:56Z")
> [@Jenaroph](#): > > Why would pollsters deliberately set themselves up to be wildly wrong when the election takes place? What are they supposed to gain from that? Not pollsters… … …_liberals_. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/118 "2012-09-26T18:07:06Z")
> [@Jenaroph](#): > > Why would pollsters deliberately set themselves up to be wildly wrong when the election takes place? What are they supposed to gain from that? The ability to riot, apparently. I don’t think **OMGABC** is saying they are deliberately skewing things, though, just Limburger. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/119 "2012-09-26T19:32:09Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > The ability to riot, apparently. [Like the GOP DC staffers did in Miami?](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_brothers_riot) :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647/120 "2012-09-26T20:25:28Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > I caught a little of his act today too. My favorite part is how the polling companies are all purposely skewing the polls toward Obama, so that when Romney wins the rioting can commence. > > I’m not sure, what sort of stake pollsters have in riots, but there you go. Seems like a good time for the Kaiser Chiefs’ “[I Predict A Riot](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE).” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-conservative-grievance-polls-oversample-democrats/635647.md?page=7)