Who said that?
What are you using to measure the enthusiasm gap, exactly?
Sorry to bump such an old thread but the latest 538 postis interesting in this regard. It turns out that there was a significant oversampling going on that resulted in a significant bias across the whole universe of pollsters … even those labeled as Democratic leaning typically actually had a GOP lean. Gallup and Rasmussen did especially poorly.
FWIW.
The polls WERE biased… in favor of the Republicans. Hilarious.
I was hoping Silver would do an analysis of the overall performance of each poll and call Gallup on their lousy results. They’ve been wrong the last three elections, and seriously wrong regarding Romney’s chances. It makes you wonder what else they’re were wrong about.
I’ve been waiting to hear claims that the actual vote oversampled Democrats.
And how long until the usual suspects come running to explain this away? Huh? OMG? adaher?
:::tap tap tap:::
Is this thing on?
I was reading one of these, as referenced herein, where the commenter was swearing that he had video of busloads of illegal Ethiopian voters being trundled to the polls to vote Dem.
Well that’s stupid. Didn’t they know Obama was Kenyan? :dubious:
Here’s an interesting post-mortem on the polling issue: The GOP Polling Debacle.
Interestingly, the article homes in on much the same issues that got debated here on the SDMB - what assumptions go into the “likely voter” screen, and the turn-out?
And, take comfort, OMG and adaher: others were making the same assumptions that you were:
Well, yes. That’s where people like adaher got the idea: from the echo chamber.
Every time an idea or conspiracy pops up in the echo chamber, a few conservatives trot along to the dope to tell us all about it.
John Madden is doing polling now?
"You see you’ve got this election, and if you want to win the election you have to get more people voting for you, and the problem for the Republicans is that they’re not doing that. If the Republicans want to win in the second half, the key is going to be getting more people to vote for them.
Needs more circles and arrows
To be fair, I am frankly surprised that the electorate looked so much like 2008 as well. As a guy who desperately wanted Obama to win, even I had my doubts and was predicting a slim Romney win based on the assumption that there’d be a smaller gap between D’s and R’s.
Thankfully I was wrong.
Quoted above: --"Sources familiar with Romney’s polling say that it underestimated the Democrats’ 6-point voter identification edge, nationally, and put far too much stock in what one Republican operative called “false signs of Republican enthusiasm.” Multiple Republican pollsters also acknowledged that they misjudged how many young people and minorities would show up to vote. "
My experience campaigning (for Obama) was that there was a great deal of enthusiasm for the president. I was involved in GOTV efforts, so of course the folks I was talking to were expected to vote Dem, but I was pleasantly surprised at how eager they were overall–“oh yeah, I’ll be there,” “Don;t worry, we’re solid for Obama,” “He’s just GOT to win this thing,” “I’m having knee surgery, so how do I get an absentee ballot?”
I’ve been involved in campaigns where it’s difficult to get voters who are supposedly on your side motivated to get to the polls. This was NOT one of them.
Also, though I did not meet many minority voters (I was in a pretty heavily white blue-collar county), I talked to quite a few young voters (under 25) who seemed no less enthusiastic than the older ones.
Has adaher been seen since the election?
Nope. Here’s his last post, midmorning on election day.
That’s surprising, he seemed like the most rational of the delusional righties we have.
Well, I hope South Park does something with the RW and LW reactions to this election, like they did in 2008.
He did log in without posting the day after the election, so he knows what awaits him. Just couldn’t face us, I guess.