Latest conservative grievance - polls "oversample" Democrats

[Fear_Itself]

Probably due in part to the bandwagon effect.

Several studies have tested this theory of the bandwagon effect in political decision making. In the 1994 study of Robert K. Goidel and Todd G. Shields in The Journal of Politics, 180 students at the University of Kentucky were randomly assigned to nine groups and were asked questions about the same set of election scenarios. About 70% of subjects received information about the expected winner (Goidel and Shields 807). Independents, which are those who do not vote based on the endorsement of any party and are ultimately neutral, were influenced strongly in favor of the person expected to win (Goidel and Shields 807-808). Expectations played a significant role throughout the study. It was found that independents are twice as likely to vote for the Republican candidate when the Republican is expected to win. From the results, it was also found that when the Democrat was expected to win, independent Republicans and weak Republicans were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate (Goidel and Shields 808).

A study by Albert Mehrabian, reported in The Journal of Applied Social Psychology (1998), tested the relative importance of the bandwagon (rally around the winner) effect versus the underdog (empathic support for those trailing) effect. Bogus poll results presented to voters prior to the 1996 Republican primary clearly showed the bandwagon effect to predominate on balance. Indeed, approximately 6% of the variance in the vote was explained in terms of the bogus polls, showing that poll results (whether accurate or inaccurate) can significantly influence election results in closely contested elections. In particular, assuming that one candidate “is an initial favorite by a slim margin, reports of polls showing that candidate as the leader in the race will increase his or her favorable margin” (Mehrabian, 1998, p. 2128). Thus, as poll results are repeatedly reported, the bandwagon effect will tend to snowball and become a powerful aid to leading candidates.

During the 1992 U.S. presidential election, Vicki G. Morwitz and Carol Pluzinski conducted a study, which was published in The Journal of Consumer Research. At a large northeastern university, some of 214 volunteer business students were given the results of student and national polls indicating that Bill Clinton was in the lead. Others were not exposed to the results of the polls. Several students who had intended to vote for Bush changed their minds after seeing the poll results (Morwitz and Pluzinski 58-64).

People like to vote for the winner, and will change their opinions to support their choice.

[DigitalC]

@Fear_Itself

People like to vote for the winner, and will change their opinions to support their choice.

Which is why the Romney campaign is desperately trying to pretend they are not losing.

[adaher]

@Truman_Burbank

Candidates have ‘coat-tails’.
So, OMG and Adaher, if the election were held today, what do you think the EV results would tally, after you correct for the (apparent) errors in polling?

They do have coattails, but lifting all boats roughly equally? I’ve never seen that before.

Maybe Obama just is that extraordinary, that a single speech can shift the polls that much.

And the bandwagon effect doesn’t explain a double digit improvement in the RIght Direction/Wrong Direction polls. That can only be explained by more Democrats being polled:

Direction of Country | RealClearPolling

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

They do have coattails, but lifting all boats roughly equally? I’ve never seen that before.

Maybe Obama just is that extraordinary, that a single speech can shift the polls that much.

And the bandwagon effect doesn’t explain a double digit improvement in the RIght Direction/Wrong Direction polls. That can only be explained by more Democrats being polled:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

It could also be explained by better arguments (i.e. politics). If the Obama campaign is actually changing some people’s minds, with regards to right direction/wrong direction, then that is all you need to explain that particular poll question results.

[Jas09]

As another variable - the stock market, perhaps the most obvious economic indicator to those with jobs, is at something like 9-year highs.

I learned in 2004 to never say “all the polls except XXX are wrong” particularly if XXX happens to be the one(s) with results I like.

[Truman_Burbank]

So, Adaher, I notice you didn’t answer my question…

[Fear_Itself]

@adaher

And the bandwagon effect doesn’t explain a double digit improvement in the RIght Direction/Wrong Direction polls.

Sure it does. People decide they want to vote for Obama (for whatever reason), but don’t like the niggling cognitive dissonance from their previous opinion on right track/wrong track. So they change their opinion to fit their choice of Obama. That’s why “fickle” and “voter” are so often seen together.

[bup]

@Linden_Arden

Latest conservative grievance - polls “oversample” Democrats
They use this report by Rasmussen to prove that more R’s than D’s exist.

Maybe I missed it, but where are conservatives airing grievances about this (besides this thread)?

[Chefguy]

@Jas09

As another variable - the stock market, perhaps the most obvious economic indicator to those with jobs, is at something like 9-year highs.

Brace yourself for the bad news in about six days.

[Jas09]

@bup

Maybe I missed it, but where are conservatives airing grievances about this (besides this thread)?

I believe Rove was doing it on Fox News. Breitbart and Newsmax, those type of sites, have a few articles up about it. It’s rampant at the conservative boards like FreeRepublic.

Google “democratic oversampling” and you’ll see articles from Hugh Hewitt and The Blaze (Glen Beck’s website).

[Jas09]

@Chefguy

Brace yourself for the bad news in about six days.

I’m not sure I follow - are you talking about the jobs report (shouldn’t be until the following Friday, I think) or a projected drop in the stock markets at the end of the week (perhaps end-of-month profit taking or short covers)?

[elucidator]

The Republicans have reacted sensibly and intelligently to their disadvantage with Hispanic voters, the poor and students. Stop them from voting. Problem solved. Next!

[bup]

@Jas09

I believe Rove was doing it on Fox News. Breitbart and Newsmax, those type of sites, have a few articles up about it. It’s rampant at the conservative boards like FreeRepublic.

Google “democratic oversampling” and you’ll see articles from Hugh Hewitt and The Blaze (Glen Beck’s website).

So the theory goes:

1. Pollsters oversample Democrats
2. ??
3. Democrats profit!

[RTFirefly]

I don’t understand what conservatives are upset about.

You really don’t want to have an inaccurately rosy view of reality; it’ll kill you every time. Seems to me like if the GOP is really ahead in the polls, that’s setting us Dems up for a serious fall, and the right is the true beneficiary of the polling error, if it’s real.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Jas09

I believe Rove was doing it on Fox News. Breitbart and Newsmax, those type of sites, have a few articles up about it. It’s rampant at the conservative boards like FreeRepublic.

Google “democratic oversampling” and you’ll see articles from Hugh Hewitt and The Blaze (Glen Beck’s website).

When it comes right down to it, I think what is upsetting these people so much is not so much democratic oversampling, but the increase in the number of people that identify as democrats. They see this trend happening, (people moving away from the current far-right, Randian, xenophobic Republican base) and it confuses and frightens them.

This is what they are really railing about. So this is why they are working on schemes to disenfranchise those that they feel have the “wrong” ideas. The whole voter ID card thing is pretty blatantly about trying to reduce the number of “wrong” votes by removing the right to vote from the “wrong” people.

[ElvisL1ves]

As soon as you hear them saying “The only poll we care about is the one on Election Day”, like every other campaign that has realized it’s lost says, you can open the champagne.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@ElvisL1ves

As soon as you hear them saying “The only poll we care about is the one on Election Day”, like every other campaign that has realized it’s lost says, you can open the champagne.

Like this?

Tom Tellefsen, a major bundler and chairman of the candidate’s California Finance Committee, tried to reassure donors as he introduced Romney to about 1,500 people who paid up to $50,000 to see the candidate speak at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

Tellefsen said. “So I wanted to share some thoughts with you tonight. They can provide you some comfort. Polls are not elections. The voters have not yet spoken.”

[Jas09]

@bup

So the theory goes:

1. Pollsters oversample Democrats
2. ??
3. Democrats profit!

I believe the actual conspiracy proposed is:

1. Pollsters oversample Democrats
2. Republicans are demoralized and undecided voters “rally to the winner”
3. Obama is re-elected through MSM and pollster chicanery

A slight variation is:

1. Pollsters oversample Democrats
2. Democratic big-city machines rig the vote with fake ballots to steal the election
3. Their shenanigans are covered by the seemingly accurate pre-election polls

[elucidator]

Similar to exit polls.

1. People who voted for Bush are ashamed to admit it.
2. They say the voted for Kerry, when they didn’t
3. People think Bush stole two elections, when he only stole one.

[Chefguy]

@Jas09

I’m not sure I follow - are you talking about the jobs report (shouldn’t be until the following Friday, I think) or a projected drop in the stock markets at the end of the week (perhaps end-of-month profit taking or short covers)?

The quarterly report is supposed to be dismal, and some are predicting it’s the end of the recovery. But there are always doomsayers.