# Latest Polls show Clinton losing women's votes to Obama - why the shift? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 2, 2008, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987 "2008-02-02T16:08:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/1 "2008-02-02T16:08:07Z")
The [latest](http://www.gallup.com/poll/104104/Hillary-Clintons-Gender-Advantage-Over-Obama-Narrows.aspx) gallup polls are showing Clinton is losing women’s votes to Obama. In my neck of the woods Connecticut, I am seeing the same trends - campaigning in New Haven - Home to Yale - is showing exactly what the gallup polls say: > [@](#): > > overall gap between Clinton and her only remaining serious competitor, Sen. Barack Obama, has been closing, and an analysis of the patterns of vote choice by gender shows that Obama’s gains over the last 10 days have come disproportionately among women. Clinton has been losing more support from women than from men, in essence moving closer to a point where the “gender playing field” has been leveled. I posit that Clinton’s ‘inevitability’ vote is losing ground quickly yet is a normal occurance statistically. This trend is going to continue in my opinion… This is going to be a horse race folks plain and simple, and I believe Barack is going to cinch it by a nose… Basically, I think Clinton has too much baggage to bring this full circle. Nothing against the woman personally, I just don’t think she’s going to make it. So why the shift in women voters? Quinnapiac is polling the same results and I’ll touch back here tonight when I get back from a rally at Yale today…and post the general feel of the rally. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/2 "2008-02-02T16:51:46Z")
Because Obama is playing nice, and Clinton (both of them) hasn’t been. IMO, women won’t necessarily vote for a woman on gender alone, but they’re more likely to leap to her side if they think people (read: Men) are picking on her because of her sex. NYNOW aside, Obama’s been nicer, and the media hasn’t been gleefully predicting Clinton’s doom as they did between Iowa and New Hampshire. They don’t feel like they have to protect her honor, and thus are free to get caught up in the same charismatic hurricane of hope as the boys are. Plus, I doubt having her husband do her dirty work is helping any. ISTM that Clinton sees all this too, and is changing her tune. The last debate was very civil. That will help her, but I think the damage is already done as far as Tuesday is concerned. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAleq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smartaleq/32/163_2.png) [@SmartAleq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAleq)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/3 "2008-02-02T17:14:57Z")
Anecdotally speaking, as a woman, I’m a bit annoyed that Hillary isn’t telling Bill to get his rude ass back in the kitchen or den or wherever he’s supposed to spend his time now that he’s retired. When potential First Ladies go campaigning, they’re expected to be nice and boost their spouses and be SUPPORT PERSONNEL. They are NOT supposed to go out and wage war as though they were campaigning for themselves. If she can’t tell him to STFU and make it stick, is she tough enough to handle the rest of the campaign? I’d feel the same way if a male candidate couldn’t ride herd on his campaign staff and wife in a similar manner. I also don’t think that primaries are an appropriate place to get nasty. In a primary, everyone is supposed to be on the same side, nominally speaking. The guy you trash today could be your running mate tomorrow so it makes no sense to denigrate and tear down. Save that for the goddamned Republicans! ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/4 "2008-02-02T17:30:39Z")
[QUOTE=SmartAleq] Anecdotally speaking, as a woman, I’m a bit annoyed that Hillary isn’t telling Bill to get his rude ass back in the kitchen or den or wherever he’s supposed to spend his time now that he’s retired. When potential First Ladies go campaigning, they’re expected to be nice and boost their spouses and be SUPPORT PERSONNEL. They are NOT supposed to go out and wage war as though they were campaigning for themselves. If she can’t tell him to STFU and make it stick, is she tough enough to handle the rest of the campaign? I’d feel the same way if a male candidate couldn’t ride herd on his campaign staff and wife in a similar manner. I also don’t think that primaries are an appropriate place to get nasty. In a primary, everyone is supposed to be on the same side, nominally speaking. The guy you trash today could be your running mate tomorrow so it makes no sense to denigrate and tear down. Save that for the goddamned Republicans! [/QUOTE] I thought everyone learned not to place so much stock in polls after New Hampshire. Given the most accurate poll was in Florida not too long ago and Hillary devastated Obama, completely unexpected given the trends the pundits/polls are suggesting all over the country. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/5 "2008-02-02T17:56:15Z")
It is because Obama’s a stud. ::d&r:: ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/6 "2008-02-02T18:53:02Z")
[QUOTE=The Flying Dutchman] I thought everyone learned not to place so much stock in polls after New Hampshire. [/QUOTE] I think the Clinton outlier in New Hampshire gets over-hyped. Obama & Edwards received what they were supposed to get and the Republicans didn’t see any wonky upsets either. According to [Electoral-Vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jan13.html) the averages of the last 15 polls before NH and the real results went as follows: ```php Candidate Poll average Final Hillary Clinton 29.8% 39.1% Barack Obama 36.7% 36.4% John Edwards 18.8% 16.9% ``` Obama was as accurate a result as you’ll ever see. Edwards was within any likely margin of error. Supposedly some 15% of the state was “undecided” a few days before the election and there’s a debate to be had about why they broke for Clinton (“Found her voice”, felt she was attacked, wanted to go against the Iowa-ordained Obama, just liked her message better) but people read too much into New Hampshire in so far as saying that polls are a joke and I don’t see any reason to assume that polls are typically off by 10% as a matter of course, especially when viewed as a combined average. ---
**Author:** ![burundi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3ec8ea/32.png) [@burundi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/burundi)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2008, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/7 "2008-02-02T21:33:48Z")
There are several reasons why I’m not supporting Clinton in the primary, but only one is potentially gender-specific. It seems as though she’s riding her husband’s coattails. If she hadn’t been married to Bill Clinton, I don’t think she’d be a serious contender. As a woman, I’d much rather see a woman like Janet Napolitano or Susan Collins running. I’d like our first woman president to be someone who has succeeded through merit rather than marriage. (I’ve heard that Clinton is a fine senator, but I think she’d do the country more good by continuing to serve in Congress than by running for president.) ---
**Author:** ![Rucksinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/898d66/32.png) [@Rucksinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rucksinator)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/8 "2008-02-03T00:24:07Z")
Nobody’s mentioned Oprah yet? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/9 "2008-02-03T01:27:06Z")
Actually Oprah’s laid a low profile in recent weeks, although I understand she’s doing a big event [tomorrow](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105455&page=1). > [@](#): > > On Sunday, when Bill Clinton is watching the Super Bowl with Bill Richardson, Obama will get another burst of free-media publicity when Oprah campaigns for him in Los Angeles. She will be joined by Michelle Obama. > > This will be Oprah’s first Obama event since the weekend of Dec. 8th when she stumped with the Obamas in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/10 "2008-02-03T03:24:55Z")
Is there evidence that Oprah’s support had previously made a difference for Osama in the primaries? I heard earlier today that **the LA Times** has not endorsed a candidate (in the primaries, I assume) since 1972. They are endorsing Obama. That’s impressive. I’ve shifted my vote from Clinton to Obama over a period of time. I would hope that most feminists are not one-issue voters. Although I had looked forward to voting for a woman and had liked Hillary and the President previously, I have not been satisfied with Senator Clinton’s vote on war with Iraq or her statements about it later. Obama got my attention at the Democratic Convention in 2004. I’ve had some very positive feelings about him ever since that time and I have been generally undecided between them until Bill Clinton’s remark about Jesse Jackson. That may be unfair to Hillary, but she’s the one who brung 'im. Was it a little thing? Maybe. But it was also a reminder of “business as usual.” Besides, Obama inspires me and Hillary bores me. There will be other women. I think that a man like Obama is rare. And he _does_ make me think of what it was like when young John Kennedy got his chance. He won’t be perfect, but neither was JFK. But he certainly lifted us up and that is exactly what we need. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/11 "2008-02-03T03:37:51Z")
[QUOTE=Zoe] Is there evidence that Oprah’s support had previously made a difference for **Osama** in the primaries? [/QUOTE] You just had to go there, didn’t you? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Ichbin\_Dubist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/51bf81/32.png) [@Ichbin\_Dubist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ichbin_Dubist)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/12 "2008-02-03T13:36:22Z")
Well, Mrs. Clinton still has Ann Coulter’s vote, apparently, [QUOTE=SmartAleq] When potential First Ladies go campaigning, they’re expected to be nice and boost their spouses and be SUPPORT PERSONNEL. They are NOT supposed to go out and wage war as though they were campaigning for themselves. If she can’t tell him to STFU and make it stick, is she tough enough to handle the rest of the campaign? [/QUOTE] I don’t think there’s any solid evidence for this (sorry to wander into GD so unprepared…), but my assumption was that what Bill was doing was a strategy from her campaign, not merely Bill shooting off his mouth. HRC is many things to many people, but she doesn’t strike me as being that sloppy a strategist. I think she’s concerned about appearing brittle and mean, and it was a decision by her and her staff to have lovable ol’ Bill be the attack dog. I’m going to dig around for some comparative poll numbers: Is there a chance that voters of all genders are slowly shifting away from Hillary because they see a race against McCain being much tighter than one against Huckabee or Romney? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/13 "2008-02-03T21:40:30Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] It is because Obama’s a stud. ::d&r:: [/QUOTE] Actually, I was going to suggest something like this seriously. Good grief, he’s running for heartthrob in chief! That may not explain the shift, but add to that that HRC gets support for being a woman, while Obama appeals to women for the same reasons he appeals to men (with the heartthrob thing looming larger of course). As one comes to see HRC as being merely Billary back again (a view which a more visible Bubba can encourage) her femaleness becomes less a big deal. Or, you know, they like his health care plan better? I dunno. ---
**Author:** ![Huerta88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/82dd89/32.png) [@Huerta88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Huerta88)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/14 "2008-02-03T21:54:40Z")
An article from the NYT Magazine suggests a reason: women’s votes are up for grabs because they have less knowledge on which to form an opinion, fewer substantive political beliefs or strong convictions, and thus can easily be persuaded to change their minds in short order: > [@](#): > > WHEN IT comes to politics, it’s not just that women are ambivalent; it’s that, as a group, they are less interested than men are — not all women, naturally, but on average. In a 2006 University of Michigan survey, 42 percent of men responded that they were “very interested” in government and public affairs, compared with 34 percent of women. At the uninterested end, women were more likely to say that they were only “somewhat interested” — 60 percent of female respondents compared with 54 percent of male respondents. > > * * * > > Not surprisingly, less interest translates into less knowledge. > > * * * > > In their 1996 study of Americans’ political knowledge, “What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters,” Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew organization, and his co-author, Michael X. Delli Carpini, dean of the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg School of Communication, reported that on average, men outscored women by more than 9 percentage points on all political questions; by 15 points when asked to name their governor; by 10 on the identity of either of their senators. (It is true that women sometimes say that don’t know when they do, but this accounts for only about a quarter of the knowledge gap.) > > In a separate survey done before the current election cycle, Pew asked men and women which of the Democratic candidates is Hispanic, what Mitt Romney’s religion is, the name of the current speaker of the House, what position Robert Gates holds, which party has the House majority and how many U.S. troops have died in Iraq. The men outscored the women on every question, with the widest gap being the name of the secretary of defense (there was an 18 point difference between the number of men who answered correctly and the number of women who did) and the smallest that Mitt Romney is a Mormon (2 points). Many more men (13 points) knew the rough number of U.S. troop casualties in Iraq and that Nancy Pelosi is speaker of the House (6 points). Less knowledge implies they are making their choice based on more ephemeral factors, one of which could simply be: Hey, it’s what everyone else is doing, must be the way to go. What was the best way to be popular in high school? Popularity. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2008, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/15 "2008-02-03T22:49:58Z")
I think it’s their sleaziness that’s done them in. I doubt that women are any more willing to put up with it than anyone else. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2008, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/latest-polls-show-clinton-losing-womens-votes-to-obama-why-the-shift/435987/16 "2008-02-04T06:49:03Z")
I know several women who have slowly changed their minds from Hillary to Obama in the upcoming primary on Tuesday - and most of them are doing so simply because they think Obama has a better chance of winning in November, not because they think anything less of Hillary. As one friend in Huntington Beach told me yesterday, “I really like both of them, but I think Obama has the better chance of beating McCain.”