1000 should be 10000 in the above.
No conclusions were made; the anecdotes were used to introduce the concept of probability. FYI, the book is Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, by Moore and McCabe, 1st edition.
Huh?
2[sup]21[/sup] = 2,097,152
2[sup]26[/sup] = 67,108,864
Where ya get 26 from?
Upon rereading your post I realize my error. Thank you for drawing it to my attention.
But if we postulate that within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces, the probability is that the law of probability will not operate as a factor, then we must accept that the probability of the first part will not operate as a factor, in which case the law of probabilty will operate as a factor within un-, sub, or supernatural forces. Since it obviously hasn’t been doing so, we can take it that we are not held within un-, sub, or supernatural forces after all.
This is a great comfort to me personally.
Why 1? She liked one. 2 is the number she didn’t pick.
Sue the confused. I’m sure I’ll find out you’re tricking me somehow…
What? Why would I cheat to provide a result that would make my daughter cry? If I could have cheated, I would have succeeded in showing her that she was NOT unlucky in coin tosses, which is what I was aiming at? And, a coin toss is called in the air – what does one do, wait until it’s called and somehow wiggle the air or the ground?
Sue
p.s. Oh, maybe I get it. You think that maybe Casey, at six years old, was able to figure out how to cheat, and then wanted to cheat in order to call coin tosses wrong 21 times in a row so that 15 years later I’d mention it on the SDMB. Yeah, that’s it. Well, she’s smart. And, doggone, was she a good actress. I really bought into those crocodile tears. Nope. She was smart enough even then to realize that if she could figure out a coin toss in the air, and her mom used it to decide who could choose what we’d have for lunch, or who could be the last one out of the shower at the Y, that she should keep it to herself so she could always win.
Another Primate I don’t think he/she was accusing you of cheating.
First, I don’t believe in luck. Second, I know you’re just kidding – but, really, even if I were to get rich, I’m such a sucker for a hardworn handsome old handyman-type, I’ll have already spent that all on my fourth husband (who I haven’t met yet). Gotta count on your kids to bail you out in the end.
-Sue
I figured that since he quoted me, he was joking about the possibility of my cheating. So I did the “how dare you! I’m a sweet mother!” routine. Then, I read his again, after previewing but before submitting, and realized it was even funnier – he was joking that Casey cheated.
I really never considered that he’d quote me otherwise, since the whole thread was about coin tosses.
But maybe some people hit “quote”, instead of just “reply”, forgetting that the thread was all about coin tosses in the first place?
(He shall apply to he/she; him shall apply to him/her, etc. I grew up with “he” and never felt demeaned by it, any more than by “mankind” or “human”.)
–Sue
Speaking of Probabilities…
What do you think the probability is that Another Primate has fabricated this “Anti-precognative-ability-having daughter” story? I mean, what do we REALLY know about her anyway? And do you realize that her name is really just an anagram for Methane Airport???
Yes, that is right.
Methane Airport
chew on that for a while.
Heck, I’m her daughter, and I’m not even sure I believe it. Do I really remember sitting on my bed in my pink room, and missing 21 consecutive quarter tosses? I was what, 6? 7? Or have I just heard the story so many times that it worm-holed its way into my memory banks as being real?
'Fess up mom. I really missed 3 in a row, didn’t I?
Casey Primate
You could probably turn this into a book, and maybe even a Lifetime Channel Movie of the Week. See if you can work in your mom hitting you with wire clothes hangers every time you got one wrong. 
Whoops. I’m sorry, it was actually 2, 10, 18, 28, 30, and 18. I did get it right on the actual ticket, I just mis-transscribed the number when I was reporting back. Make sure Casey knows that I know that two is a number that she didn’t choose, and thus two is a number that I did choose.
And here’s Casey Primate herself. Criminey; I thought Another Primate’s story was, like, from 1999 or something and you were still seven or eight. I was actually worried that you might start crying again 'cause it looked like I wasn’t believing you with the one/two thing. Sheesh.
I suppose my dream of exploiting your anti-precognitive talents for my own financial gain, by telling your mother what a smart little girl she has, has gone up in smoke; being as you can actually think for yourself and all.
Well, if you’re someone pretending to be my daughter, you’re doing a damned good job. Spelling precognative with an A was right-on. (To quote Casey, “I know how to spell definately. I just don’t.”)
Go to your room! Or go to the methane airport!
Yes, I confess, you missed three in a row. And then you went on to miss another 18. This is a real story, and I will ask your great-aunt Barbara, your grandmother, Vickie, and all my sisters and brothers to dig through circa 1984 letters to provide proof. Would I lie to you? Particularly, would I lie in a story that makes me look like a cruel mother? Not. Now go give Eli a kiss for me, then study.
Mom
p.s. I love you. You’re a card.
Umm, no, jmonster – that would be every time she got one RIGHT.
Mom
What Doctor Goo Fee is referring to here is, of course, the central limit theorem, which could be used to answer the first question in the OP. I don’t see how it applies to the second, though.
…but the impartial representatives of the State chose:
07, 14, 22, 41, 46, and 01
Not even close. So I guess you don’t have any anti-precognative powers. Ah well; a good scientific test is a good scientific test regardless of the positive or negative results thereof.
Wow, zut, do you realize that the odds of them picking that number were only one in 23688288?
Therefore, we can conclude that they didn’t actually pick that number. 