# Leaked IPCC report: 90% confidence in AGW is now 95% -- and sea level will rise! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 23, 2013, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leaked-ipcc-report-90-confidence-in-agw-is-now-95-and-sea-level-will-rise/667002 "2013-08-23T20:36:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 131
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2013, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leaked-ipcc-report-90-confidence-in-agw-is-now-95-and-sea-level-will-rise/667002/131 "2013-09-03T07:51:56Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > That’s a nice way of saying they were wrong. This is our best guess RANGE and if it’s wrong well hell we’ll throw in an error rate to cover our modeling failure. Maybe they should call it Global Sorta Warming Until We Figure Out The Correct Rate. In the meantime civilization will continue to reduce co2 by the natural order of technological advances. No, the reality is that your cite was misleading, the data reported in the cite and the scientific papers support the point that I’m making, you are wrong, and you really need to check your cites; in my search it was amusing to see him going to the Met Office site to make even more denial points, not impressed at all by him. And you are wrong still. > [@Magiver](#): > > Ah, so the latest one is going to be accurate going forward. Got it. Humans are making it hotter at X rate except when it’s not. Then a new and improved prediction will come out. Lather rinse repeat until a prediction comes true. Wrong as usual. Like I pointed out in the Evolution thread: The IPCC still got some items wrong like the actual loss of ice. But it is really silly for the contrarians to expect that finding one or a few wrong items means that we should overturn all the theory and science. It does not work that way, the problem for the contrarian is that it has to also propose an alternative that works (that is, that explains all the current warming and the effects observed). Otherwise the needed changes and modifications actually tell the scientists that the overall current theory is more robust now with the slight changes that were and will be made. And that is happening with climate science. > **[10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change](https://skepticalscience.com/10-Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html)** > > The NOAA State of the Climate 2009 report is an excellent summary of the many lines of evidence that global warming is happening. Acknowledging the fact that the planet is warming leads to the all important question - what's causing global warming?... > [@](#): > > 10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change > [@](#): > > To get a closer look, click on the pic above to get a high-rez 1024x768 version (you’re all welcome to use this graphic in your Powerpoint presentations). Or to dig even deeper, here’s more info on each indicator (including links to the original data or peer-reviewed research): > > 1. Humans are currently emitting around 30 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (CDIAC). Of course, it could be coincidence that CO2 levels are rising so sharply at the same time so let’s look at more evidence that we’re responsible for the rise in CO2 levels. > > … > > 1. If an increased greenhouse effect is causing global warming, we should see certain patterns in the warming. For example, the planet should warm faster at night than during the day. This is indeed being observed (Braganza 2004, Alexander 2006). > > 2. Another distinctive pattern of greenhouse warming is cooling in the upper atmosphere, otherwise known as the stratosphere. This is exactly what’s happening (Jones 2003). > > 3. With the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) warming and the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) cooling, another consequence is the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, otherwise known as the tropopause, should rise as a consequence of greenhouse warming. This has been observed (Santer 2003). > > 4. An even higher layer of the atmosphere, the ionosphere, is expected to cool and contract in response to greenhouse warming. This has been observed by satellites (Laštovi?ka 2006). > \*\* > Science isn’t a house of cards, ready to topple if you remove one line of evidence. Instead, it’s like a jigsaw puzzle. As the body of evidence builds, we get a clearer picture of what’s driving our climate. We now have many lines of evidence all pointing to a single, consistent answer - the main driver of global warming is rising carbon dioxide levels from our fossil fuel burning.\*\* --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leaked-ipcc-report-90-confidence-in-agw-is-now-95-and-sea-level-will-rise/667002)._