# Least stupid major conspiracy theory ?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [October 18, 2017, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230 "2017-10-18T14:14:05Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\
**Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/81 "2019-05-04T18:10:07Z")

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> [@Jackmannii](#):
>
> I’ve never heard conspiracy buffs going off on that one, which I doubt qualifies as a “conspiracy”, seeing that the federal government was busy _incarcerating_ many thousands of Japanese-Americans at the time, and a federal agency sharing information about them with other agencies would scarcely have raised an eyebrow in comparison.
> 
> Sounds more like something embarrassing to the government in retrospect which no one wanted to talk about.
> 
> I await the day a dramatic government conspiracy/coverup alleged by Internet conspiracy-shouters is uncovered and proven to be just what they were claiming all along.
> 
> I expect to wait a very, very long time.

This is a good example of how to distinguish an actual conspiracy from a conspiracy theory.

1. There’s a clear-cut motive; “We’re at war with Japan, and we don’t trust our citizens of Japanese descent, and want to round them all up and put them in camps”

2. There’s a clear-cut problem; "How will we know we’ve rounded them all up?

3. There’s a clear-cut solution; “Hey, that other department has complete lists of all these people, all it will require is one little illegal act, and we’re done!”

4. The cover-up wold be relatively easy; It wouldn’t take that many people to carry out the one illegal act, everyone else involved in the internment don’t need to know from where the information was obtained. And everyone who does know has reasonable motivations for not blowing the whistle: a) They’re guilty, and b) They convinced themselves that this was necessary to win the war.

Compare that to your usual CT, [with boxes connected by strings in a maze even a rat couldn’t navigate](https://www.vox.com/world/2017/11/14/16652876/louie-gohmert-conspiracy-chart), and the difference is quite apparent.

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**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/82 "2019-05-06T05:27:51Z")

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> [@Horatius](#):
>
> This is a good example of how to distinguish an actual conspiracy from a conspiracy theory.
> 
> 1. There’s a clear-cut motive; “We’re at war with Japan, and we don’t trust our citizens of Japanese descent, and want to round them all up and put them in camps”
> 
> 2. There’s a clear-cut problem; "How will we know we’ve rounded them all up?
> 
> 3. There’s a clear-cut solution; “Hey, that other department has complete lists of all these people, all it will require is one little illegal act, and we’re done!”
> 
> 4. The cover-up wold be relatively easy; It wouldn’t take that many people to carry out the one illegal act, everyone else involved in the internment don’t need to know from where the information was obtained. And everyone who does know has reasonable motivations for not blowing the whistle: a) They’re guilty, and b) They convinced themselves that this was necessary to win the war.
> 
> Compare that to your usual CT, [with boxes connected by strings in a maze even a rat couldn’t navigate](https://www.vox.com/world/2017/11/14/16652876/louie-gohmert-conspiracy-chart), and the difference is quite apparent.

But as mentioned, nobody would have cared. Roosevelt could have declared it a “necessary wartime measure” and nobody would have batted an eye. Why cover it up?

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**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/83 "2019-05-06T11:56:39Z")

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The pattern that keeps repeating in this thread is that for any one major conspiracy theory that someone deeps least-stupid, someone else will come along and point out that it’s still deeply stupid.

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**Author:** ![TSBG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/77aa72/32.png) [@TSBG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TSBG)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/84 "2019-05-06T20:03:27Z")

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> [@Machine\_Elf](#):
>
> The pattern that keeps repeating in this thread is that for any one major conspiracy theory that someone deeps least-stupid, someone else will come along and point out that it’s still deeply stupid.

It’s all part of the cover-up.

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**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/85 "2019-05-06T20:03:38Z")

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> [@UltraVires](#):
>
> But as mentioned, nobody would have cared. Roosevelt could have declared it a “necessary wartime measure” and nobody would have batted an eye. Why cover it up?

Because “nobody would care” is a bit of hindsight analysis. The actions they took were illegal, after all. Would _you_ rely on “No one would care” to protect you from a potential criminal charge?

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**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/86 "2019-05-06T20:05:35Z")

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> [@Horatius](#):
>
> Because “nobody would care” is a bit of hindsight analysis. The actions they took were illegal, after all. Would _you_ rely on “No one would care” to protect you from a potential criminal charge?

I do know a guy like that…

[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump)

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**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/87 "2019-05-06T20:06:05Z")

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> [@Machine\_Elf](#):
>
> The pattern that keeps repeating in this thread is that for any one major conspiracy theory that someone deeps least-stupid, someone else will come along and point out that it’s still deeply stupid.

Well, “least stupid” is a relative term. It’s like asking for the “least deep ocean” or the “least powerful rifle bullet”. Oceans are still deep, and rifles will still mess you up.

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**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/88 "2019-05-06T20:07:05Z")

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> [@JohnT](#):
>
> I do know a guy like that…
> 
> [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump)

See, I was assuming the people involved were at least smart enough to win a world war.

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**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\
**Post date:** [May 7, 2019, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/89 "2019-05-07T16:49:15Z")

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An interesting one popped up today. In May, 1999, the US military bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. The US immediately apologised and insisted it was a mistake, and eventually paid reparations. They said there was absolutely no reason for bombing the embassy and that they intended to bomb a different target but got the coordinates wrong. “I think it’s complete nonsense - it was a bad map-reading error and a bad mistake.” However, millions of people, including people in China and Europe, believe the Chinese embassy was the intended target, and the “bad map story” is a lie.

> **[The night the US bombed a Chinese embassy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48134881)**
>
> The CIA blamed bad mapping but China has never believed that the strikes were an accident.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [May 7, 2019, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/90 "2019-05-07T16:52:41Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> The Iraq was a war for oil theory, same for Libya in 2011.

I’m not sure this is a “conspiracy theory” in the sense the OP means. Arguing over the motivations for something that quite definitely actually did happen is not crackpot stuff.

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**Author:** ![phreesh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@phreesh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phreesh)\
**Post date:** [May 7, 2019, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/91 "2019-05-07T20:11:37Z")

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> [@clairobscur](#):
>
> I don’t think this even fall in the “conspiracy theory” spectrum, even though it would be a conspiracy. Many serious commentators believe it to be true or at least possible. It’s not an idea only entertained by some loons.
> 
> I personally don’t see Putin as above doing such a thing. He really wanted to “settle” what he perceived as an issue in Chechnya and has been totally ruthless in the pursuit of this goal.

I also feel like this is closer to ‘proven fact’ than ‘conspiracy theory’, but it’s exactly the sort of thing that I would dismiss as a ludicrous theory if I hadn’t read the evidence. It’s the sort of action that gives oxygen to the conspiracy theorists out there.

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**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/92 "2019-05-08T00:49:40Z")

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I’m still 50% sure that Reagan colluded with the Ayatollah to keep the hostages from the U.S. embassy in Tehran until after the 1980 election. Yeah, I know, there’s no paper trail, but you can’t tell me Bush didn’t have enough contacts in the ME to back-channel the whole deal.

Hey, nobody believed Nixon could have scuttled the Paris peace talks in '68…

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**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/93 "2019-05-08T09:33:26Z")

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George Bush senior was directly involved with the importation of cocaine into the US in the '80’s as part of the Iran Contra affair.

I have seen various reports on tv from former claimed DEA operatives, so I guess this would be a very believable CT.

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**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/94 "2019-05-08T11:34:32Z")

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**Roswell** : The government intentionally made the media think “it’s aliens” to distract the public from what they were really doing… Building stealth bombers.

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**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/95 "2019-05-08T12:51:42Z")

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Malaysian flight 370 that was lost without a trace over the Indian ocean.

I read that some government had the plane hijacked because it was carrying some Chinese scientists. The plane set down somewhere secret and the passengers were either eliminated or were paid off and “persuaded” to not ever tell. Sort of like being put into the witness protection program.

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**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/96 "2019-05-08T13:01:21Z")

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I think the US government is VERY good at hiding things. Yes, the truth might be known by hundreds if not thousands of people but 1. many people take their promise and vows of secrecy very seriously and take them to the grave and 2. for the few who dont and tell others, the government has ways of finding leaks and punishing persons and their families. 3. The government is good at releasing false information so as to discredit any real whistle blowers who say slip a note to a reporter. 4. finally their is just such a vast amount of information out there that even if the truth was out, who would listen or be able to find the truth?

I mean lets just say you know someone whos former CIA who says to you “I’m not supposed to tell you this but…” what would come of it? It just goes into the ether and the rumor mill.

And its not just the US and China who do this. I read about a UK RAF base which had this large strange glowing craft land just outside it. Staff surrounded it and it took off. All the people involved were told “this never happened”.

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**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/97 "2019-05-08T13:32:51Z")

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I know this is a zombie thread, but the idea that the moon landings could have been faked is utterly absurd. There would be no possible motive for it, because the hoax would be guaranteed to be found out, which would make America a global laughing stock and destroy its reputation.

Think about it - the locations of the landings are public knowledge, and you can’t stop other nations from going to the moon. All it takes to uncover the hoax is to visit the alleged landing spot and discover nothing there, or (to rule out unmanned landers dumped there) stuff that doesn’t exactly match the thousands of widely circulated, detailed photos of the landing sites.

For all NASA knew, Russia was only weeks or months away from a moon landing of its own. Planning a hoax would have been utter political suicide.

> [@Urbanredneck](#):
>
> I read about a UK RAF base which had this large strange glowing craft land just outside it. Staff surrounded it and it took off. All the people involved were told “this never happened”.

That was RAF Woodbridge in Suffolk. It was almost certainly a [lighthouse](http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/rendlesham2.htm).

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**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/98 "2019-05-08T14:23:25Z")

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> [@Colophon](#):
>
> That was RAF Woodbridge in Suffolk. It was almost certainly a [lighthouse](http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/rendlesham2.htm).

Ok, thanks for clearing that up.

But I think my point is valid that oftentimes people involved are told to or made to keep quiet about things.

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**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/99 "2019-05-08T14:31:43Z")

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> [@Urbanredneck](#):
>
> I think the US government is VERY good at hiding things.

Only when every single person involved in the hiding agrees to maintain secrecy. This is not terribly difficult for classified military technologies. But when you start asking people to keep secrets about government activities that are morally/ethically questionable, it gets much, much harder to keep those secrets. A few examples in recent memory include:

[Wikileaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks)

[Chelsea Manning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelsea_Manning)

[Reality Winner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality_Winner)

This kind of thing is what make the Chinese embassy bombing conspiracy theory (and so many others) ridiculous.

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**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\
**Post date:** [May 8, 2019, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/least-stupid-major-conspiracy-theory/799230/100 "2019-05-08T14:35:19Z")

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The Kennedy assassination. Even if there was only one shooter, that doesn’t necessarily mean it wasn’t a conspiracy.

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